本文選題：管理者過(guò)度自信　切入點(diǎn)：自利歸因度量法　出處：《沈陽(yáng)工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：心理學(xué)家研究表明,大多數(shù)各行各業(yè)的人們往往高估所擁有的知識(shí)和判斷信息的準(zhǔn)確性。因此,他們都具有過(guò)度自信的認(rèn)知偏差。管理者過(guò)度自信是指管理者在做投、融資等公司戰(zhàn)略性決策時(shí)會(huì)過(guò)高的估計(jì)自身能力和知識(shí),高估成功的概率和低估風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平,從而產(chǎn)生認(rèn)知偏差。管理者的過(guò)度自信對(duì)企業(yè)投資決策、企業(yè)融資行為和企業(yè)并購(gòu)活動(dòng)都會(huì)產(chǎn)生不利影響。因此,如何修正管理者過(guò)度自信認(rèn)知偏差,是管理實(shí)踐中急需解決的問(wèn)題。本文首先對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外的已有文獻(xiàn)研究進(jìn)行了回顧總結(jié),找出影響管理者過(guò)度自信的原因,發(fā)現(xiàn)管理者的學(xué)習(xí)行為能較好地修正過(guò)度自信心理偏差。再依據(jù)社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)相關(guān)理論,發(fā)現(xiàn)處于社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的管理者可以獲得更多的學(xué)習(xí)機(jī)會(huì)。在此理論基礎(chǔ)之上,提出本文的研究假設(shè),管理者網(wǎng)絡(luò)位置與管理者過(guò)度自信程度成負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系以及并購(gòu)歷史在兩者關(guān)系之間具有調(diào)節(jié)作用。然后,進(jìn)行變量設(shè)計(jì)與模型構(gòu)建。本文選取2014年深滬A股上市公司作為樣本,運(yùn)用UCINET軟件,利用ACCESS數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù),構(gòu)建管理者社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)。以管理者過(guò)度自信指標(biāo)為被解釋變量,以管理者社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)位置指標(biāo)為解釋變量,以并購(gòu)歷史為調(diào)節(jié)變量,運(yùn)用邏輯回歸方法研究處于不同網(wǎng)絡(luò)位置的管理者與其過(guò)度自信程度的關(guān)系,并研究并購(gòu)歷史對(duì)管理者網(wǎng)絡(luò)位置與管理者過(guò)度自信兩者之間關(guān)系的影響。最后,選用另一種度量管理者過(guò)度自信程度的方法,進(jìn)一步檢驗(yàn)管理者網(wǎng)絡(luò)位置、并購(gòu)歷史與管理者過(guò)度自信之間的關(guān)系。研究結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):管理者網(wǎng)絡(luò)位置與管理者過(guò)度自信程度顯著負(fù)相關(guān),揭示處于網(wǎng)絡(luò)中心位置的管理者,其過(guò)度自信程度越低。管理者網(wǎng)絡(luò)位置與并購(gòu)歷史的交互項(xiàng)與管理者過(guò)度自信成顯著正相關(guān)關(guān)系,說(shuō)明并購(gòu)歷史弱化了管理者網(wǎng)絡(luò)位置與管理者過(guò)度自信的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。這表明位于社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的管理者通過(guò)獲得學(xué)習(xí)機(jī)會(huì),修正了管理者過(guò)度自信認(rèn)知偏差,擴(kuò)展了社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)研究新的應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域。
[Abstract]:Psychologists have shown that people in most industries tend to overestimate the accuracy of their knowledge and judgment information. As a result, they all have cognitive biases of overconfidence. Companies such as financing will overestimate their own ability and knowledge, overestimate the probability of success and underestimate the level of risk, which results in cognitive bias. Therefore, how to correct the cognitive bias of managers' overconfidence, It is an urgent problem to solve in management practice. Firstly, this paper reviews and summarizes the existing literatures at home and abroad, and finds out the reasons that affect managers' overconfidence. It is found that the learning behavior of managers can correct the psychological bias of overconfidence. Then, according to the theory of social network, it is found that managers in social networks can get more learning opportunities. This paper proposes the hypothesis that the location of manager network has a negative correlation with the degree of manager overconfidence and the history of M & A has a moderating effect between the two. Using UCINET software and ACCESS database, the social network of managers is constructed. The overconfidence index of managers is taken as the explanatory variable, which is based on the index of overconfidence of managers, which is selected as the sample of the listed companies in Shenzhen and Shanghai in 2014, and the social network of managers is constructed by using ACCESS database. Taking the social network location index as the explanatory variable and the M & A history as the adjusting variable, the relationship between the managers in different network locations and their degree of overconfidence is studied by using the logical regression method. The relationship between managers' network location and managers' overconfidence is studied. Finally, another method to measure the degree of manager's overconfidence is used to further test the managers' network location. The relationship between the history of M & A and the overconfidence of managers. The results show that the network location of managers is negatively related to the degree of overconfidence of managers, which reveals that the managers are in the center of the network. The lower the degree of overconfidence is, the more significant positive correlation exists between the interaction between manager's network location and M & A history and manager's overconfidence. It shows that M & A history weakens the negative correlation between managers' network location and managers' overconfidence, which indicates that managers in social networks can correct the cognitive bias of managers' overconfidence by gaining learning opportunities. The new application field of social network research is expanded.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：沈陽(yáng)工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F832.51

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