本文選題：上市銀行　切入點：銀行績效　出處：《鄭州大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：銀行業(yè)作為金融業(yè)的三大支柱之一,對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展起著舉足輕重的作用,銀行股作為權(quán)重股,在資本市場上同樣具有關(guān)鍵作用,銀行業(yè)經(jīng)營屬于實體經(jīng)濟(jì)的范疇,銀行股價波動屬于虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)的范疇,研究我國上市銀行績效對銀行股價的影響,有助于推動資本市場健康發(fā)展,提升上市銀行的國際競爭力。本文在前人研究的基礎(chǔ)上,根據(jù)銀行業(yè)的特征將上市銀行分為三類,分類研究我國上市銀行績效對銀行股價的影響。首先,我們從直觀的角度對不同類型上市銀行的績效進(jìn)行比較,然后根據(jù)三類上市銀行的股市表現(xiàn),采用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型進(jìn)行關(guān)于銀行績效對銀行股價的影響的實證研究。在此基礎(chǔ)上提出有利于我國上市銀行和股票市場健康發(fā)展的政策建議。通過實證分析得到以下結(jié)論： (一)對上市銀行績效進(jìn)行分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：股份制中的興業(yè)、浦發(fā)和招商銀行凈資產(chǎn)收益率較高,城市商業(yè)銀行的凈資產(chǎn)收益率普遍較低,這與銀行的存貸比有很大關(guān)系。通常情況下,成本收入比越低,銀行的盈利能力越強(qiáng),但不同的情況下要區(qū)分對待。不同類型上市銀行的不良貸款率均呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢,說明我國上市銀行的資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量正逐步得到改善。從凈利潤增長的角度,國有銀行的凈利潤平均增長速度最小,城商行的居中,股份制銀行的最大。 (二)通過銀行業(yè)股價波動的研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)三類上市銀行的股價波動趨勢非常接近,從近六年的股價均值來看,國有上市銀行的股價相對城市商業(yè)銀行的股價較低。從漲跌量的統(tǒng)計特征來看,除民生外,其余上市股份制銀行和上市城商行的股價下跌天數(shù)多于上漲天數(shù),股份制中股價均值高的銀行的波動也相對劇烈,三家城市商業(yè)銀行的波動非常相似,與國有銀行相比,波動幅度更大。 (三)運用Panel Data模型進(jìn)行實證的結(jié)論為：凈資產(chǎn)收益率對三類上市銀行的股價均不產(chǎn)生顯著影響,成本收入比對銀行股價有正影響,主要因為我國銀行的高額利潤來自于很低的成本投入,投資者對成本收入比指標(biāo)缺乏信心。在國有銀行和城市商業(yè)銀行中,銀行存貸比對銀行股價有正的影響,不良貸款率對國有銀行的股價影響不顯著,對股份制銀行和城商行有負(fù)的影響。銀行凈利潤增長率對國有銀行和股份制銀行的股價有正的影響,銀行的凈利潤增長率越高,銀行的長遠(yuǎn)發(fā)展前景越明朗,投資者增加股票的購買,銀行股價上升。
[Abstract]:As one of the three pillars of the financial industry, banking plays an important role in the development of Chinese economy. As a heavy stock, bank shares also play a key role in the capital market, and banking management belongs to the category of real economy. The fluctuation of bank stock price belongs to the category of virtual economy. To study the effect of listed bank performance on bank stock price is helpful to promote the healthy development of capital market and enhance the international competitiveness of listed banks. According to the characteristics of the banking industry, the listed banks are divided into three categories, which are classified to study the impact of the performance of the listed banks on the bank stock price. Firstly, we compare the performance of different types of listed banks from an intuitive point of view. Then according to the stock market performance of the three listed banks, Using panel data model to study the effect of bank performance on bank stock price. On the basis of this, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions which are conducive to the healthy development of listed banks and stock market in China. Through empirical analysis, the following conclusions are obtained:. (1) through the analysis of the performance of listed banks, it is found that the return on net assets of Pudong Development Bank and China Merchants Bank is high, and that of urban commercial banks is generally low. This has a lot to do with the bank's deposit / loan ratio. The lower the cost-income ratio, the stronger the bank's profitability, but the different situations should be treated differently. The non-performing loan ratio of different types of listed banks shows a downward trend. From the point of view of net profit growth, the average growth rate of net profit of state-owned banks is the smallest, that of city commercial banks is in the middle, and that of joint-stock banks is the largest. (2) through the research on the stock price fluctuation of the banking industry, we find that the volatility trend of the three listed banks is very similar. From the stock price average of the last six years, The stock prices of the state-owned listed banks are lower than those of the urban commercial banks. Judging from the statistical characteristics of the volume of rise and fall, apart from people's livelihood, the share prices of the other listed joint-stock banks and listed city commercial banks have fallen for more days than the rising days. The volatility of the banks with high average stock price is also relatively sharp. The volatility of the three urban commercial banks is very similar, compared with the state-owned banks, the volatility is much larger. (3) using the Panel Data model, the conclusions are as follows: the ROE has no significant effect on the stock price of the three listed banks, while the cost-income ratio has a positive effect on the stock price of the three listed banks. Mainly because the high profits of Chinese banks come from very low cost input, and investors lack confidence in the cost-income ratio index. In state-owned banks and urban commercial banks, the deposit-loan ratio of banks has a positive impact on the stock prices of banks. The non-performing loan ratio has no significant effect on the stock price of state-owned banks, but it has a negative impact on the stock prices of joint-stock banks and city commercial banks. The net profit growth rate of banks has a positive effect on the stock prices of state-owned banks and joint-stock banks, and the higher the net profit growth rate of banks is, The longer the bank's long-term prospects are clearer, the more investors buy more shares and the higher the bank's share price.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：鄭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.51;F832.33

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