本文選題：盈余預測　切入點：會計穩(wěn)健性　出處：《鄭州大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展,資本市場也達到了近幾年的新繁榮,而證券分析師作為資本市場的中間力量能夠連接上市公司與投資者。投資者為了有效的認識企業(yè),了解企業(yè)并做出決策,對證券分析師的盈余預測準確性提出了更高要求。我國機構的不斷發(fā)展,市場監(jiān)管力量的增強使分析師得到越來越多投資者的重視。為了更好的服務資本市場,研究分析師的盈余預測顯得非常重要。而穩(wěn)健性原則是企業(yè)會計核算中運用的一項重要原則,是影響會計信息質(zhì)量的重要一環(huán),同時也能降低信息的不對稱程度。分析師盈余預測的質(zhì)量主要受自身識別判斷能力、公司披露信息以及私下搜集消息能力的影響,會計穩(wěn)健性又是影響公司披露信息質(zhì)量的主要因素,因此本文就從會計穩(wěn)健性角度來著重分析會計穩(wěn)健性對分析師盈余預測的影響。本文將企業(yè)生命周期融合到研究中,著重研究處在不同階段的企業(yè)會計穩(wěn)健性對分析師盈余預測的影響。以2007年-2014年A股上市的公司為研究對象,采用實證的研究方法用Stata進行回歸分析,最終得出了如下結(jié)論:(1)在其他條件不變的情況下會計穩(wěn)健性與分析師盈余預測誤差及分歧度是負相關關系。會計穩(wěn)健性能夠抑制分析師盈余預測的不準確性。(2)成長期、成熟期與衰退期三個階段會計穩(wěn)健性對分析師盈余預測誤差與分歧度影響程度不同,不過都是負相關關系。(3)在三個生命周期中,衰退期的會計穩(wěn)健性對分析師的盈余預測誤差影響程度最深,而從成長期到成熟期再到衰退期會計穩(wěn)健性對分析師盈余預測分歧度的影響程度也是越來越強。本文的研究成果對投資者、分析師以及上市公司都有現(xiàn)實意義:對于投資者來說,有利于更加準確的判斷出各個企業(yè)的盈余,有助于其做出更準確的投資決策,獲得更好的投資回報;對于分析師來說,能夠正確的識別盈余預測過程中的影響因素,進而能夠進行有效的預測,為分析師盈余預測的準確性提供一個建議;上市公司特別是處在衰退期的企業(yè)可以增強會計信息穩(wěn)健性,這樣有利于提高對外披露的財務信息質(zhì)量,進而能夠吸引更多分析師,分析師的跟蹤有助于降低公司的資本成本,提高其公司價值。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy in China, the capital market has reached a new boom in recent years, the securities analysts as the backbone of the capital market to connect the listed companies and investors. Investors in order to know the company, understand the business and make decisions on securities analysts' earnings forecasts put forward higher requirements. The accuracy of the continuous development of China the mechanism, strengthening market supervision power that the analyst has got more and more attention of investors. In order to better serve the capital market research analyst earnings forecast is very important. But the conservatism principle is an important principle in enterprise accounting, affecting the quality of accounting information is an important part, but also can reduce the degree of asymmetric information. The quality of earnings forecast is mainly affected by the self recognition judgment ability, information disclosure and privately collected news on the capacity of Loud, accounting conservatism is also a main factor affecting the company's information disclosure quality, so this paper from the perspective of accounting conservatism focuses on Accounting Conservatism prediction on analysts' earnings. In this paper the enterprise life cycle into research, focuses on the impact of in the different stages of enterprise accounting conservatism prediction on analysts. In 2007 -2014 A shares listed company as the research object, adopt the method of empirical study using Stata regression analysis, the final conclusions are as follows: (1) under the same conditions of accounting conservatism and earnings forecast error and divergence is negatively correlated. Accounting conservatism can inhibit the earnings forecast inaccuracy. (2) the growth period, mature period and decline period of three stages of accounting conservatism to forecast earnings error and divergence degree of influence is different, but Are negatively correlated. (3) in the three cycle, recession period accounting conservatism of analyst earnings forecast error and the influence degree of the deep, from growing to maturity and recession of accounting conservatism on the earnings forecast the influence degree of divergence is more and more strong. The research results of this paper investors, analysts and has practical significance for investors: listed companies, is conducive to more accurately determine the corporate earnings, help to make more accurate investment decisions, better investment returns; for analysts, can influential factors in the process of the correct recognition of earnings forecast, which can effectively the prediction, provide a suggestion for the prediction accuracy of earnings of listed companies; especially in the recession of the enterprises can enhance the accounting conservatism, which is beneficial to improving the The quality of high disclosure of financial information can then attract more analysts, and the tracking of analysts will help to reduce the cost of the company's capital and improve its company value.

【學位授予單位】：鄭州大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F275;F832.51

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