本文選題：商業(yè)地產(chǎn)價(jià)格　切入點(diǎn)：嘉興市區(qū)　出處：《江西理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著上海、北京等一線城市的商業(yè)地產(chǎn)趨向飽和狀態(tài)，，，三四線城市的商業(yè)地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)逐漸受到投資者們的親睞，而商業(yè)地產(chǎn)價(jià)格作為商業(yè)地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的“晴雨表”，其變化不僅直接關(guān)系著商業(yè)地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展健康與否，同時(shí)也跟消費(fèi)者、投資者的利益休戚相關(guān)。本文以嘉興市區(qū)商業(yè)地產(chǎn)價(jià)格為研究對(duì)象，研究其價(jià)格變化趨勢(shì)以期獲得有意義的結(jié)論。本文主要從以下幾個(gè)方面展開(kāi)了研究： 首先，本文闡述了商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的定義、分類、特征以及相關(guān)基礎(chǔ)理論，介紹了嘉興市區(qū)的概況、商圈的分析、商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的現(xiàn)狀，同時(shí)，著重分析了嘉興市區(qū)商業(yè)地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展面臨的問(wèn)題和具有的優(yōu)勢(shì)。 其次，基于商業(yè)地產(chǎn)價(jià)值構(gòu)成和價(jià)格確定，本文從宏觀、中觀以及微觀三個(gè)層面定性分析了商業(yè)地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響因素，并且運(yùn)用灰色綜合關(guān)聯(lián)度分析法定量分析了確立的10個(gè)嘉興市區(qū)商業(yè)地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的可能影響因素，選取出其中綜合關(guān)聯(lián)度最大的3個(gè)影響因素：市區(qū)人均GDP、城市居民人均可支配收入以及城市居民人均消費(fèi)性支出。 本文進(jìn)而對(duì)所選的三個(gè)主要影響因素分別建立灰色GM(1,1)預(yù)測(cè)模型，并結(jié)合商業(yè)地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的灰色GM(0,N)模型對(duì)未來(lái)幾年嘉興市區(qū)商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的價(jià)格進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)。預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果顯示未來(lái)幾年嘉興市區(qū)商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的價(jià)格將保持增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)。 最后，通過(guò)上述研究，結(jié)合嘉興市區(qū)的實(shí)際情況，為嘉興市區(qū)商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資者提供一些投資建議。
[Abstract]:As commercial real estate in Shanghai, Beijing and other first-tier cities tends to become saturated, the commercial real estate market in third-and fourth-tier cities is gradually becoming popular with investors. As a barometer of the commercial real estate market, the price of commercial real estate is not only directly related to the healthy development of the commercial real estate market, but also to consumers. The interests of investors are closely related. This paper takes the commercial real estate price in Jiaxing as the research object, studies its price change trend in order to get a meaningful conclusion. This paper mainly carries out the research from the following aspects:. First of all, this paper describes the definition, classification, characteristics and related basic theory of commercial real estate, introduces the general situation of Jiaxing urban area, the analysis of commercial district, the current situation of commercial real estate, at the same time, This paper analyzes the problems and advantages of commercial real estate market in Jiaxing. Secondly, based on the value composition and price determination of commercial real estate, this paper qualitatively analyzes the influencing factors of commercial real estate price from macro, meso and micro levels. And quantitative analysis of the 10 established commercial real estate prices in Jiaxing urban areas by using the grey comprehensive correlation analysis method may affect the price of commercial real estate. There are three factors that influence the degree of comprehensive correlation: urban per capita GDP, per capita disposable income of urban residents and per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents. In this paper, the grey GM1 / 1) prediction model is established for the three main influencing factors. The paper forecasts the price of commercial real estate in Jiaxing urban area in the next few years combined with the grey GM0 / N) model of commercial real estate price. The forecast results show that the price of commercial real estate in Jiaxing urban area will keep increasing trend in the next few years. Finally, through the above research, combined with the actual situation of Jiaxing urban area, provide some investment advice for commercial real estate investors in Jiaxing urban area.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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