本文選題：武漢市　切入點(diǎn)：系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)　出處：《浙江大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：城市土地集約利用是解決當(dāng)前城市化過(guò)程中人地矛盾、發(fā)展與資源矛盾的根本措施和關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié),城市土地集約利用預(yù)警是對(duì)城市土地集約利用系統(tǒng)演化趨勢(shì)的事前控制和管理。 本文將城市土地集約利用定義為綜合性系統(tǒng),選取武漢市為研究區(qū)域,應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)論刻畫城市土地集約利用系統(tǒng)的概念模型,以其結(jié)構(gòu)構(gòu)建系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)仿真模型,以其屬性構(gòu)建預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系,并依據(jù)預(yù)警理論及方法合理劃分預(yù)警指標(biāo)的警度,預(yù)測(cè)2012-2020年武漢市城市土地集約利用警情及其大小,提出相應(yīng)的排警對(duì)策。本文的研究成果是對(duì)城市土地集約利用系統(tǒng)仿真及多指標(biāo)綜合預(yù)警的實(shí)踐創(chuàng)新,主要的研究結(jié)論有以下三點(diǎn)： (1)武漢市城市土地集約利用系統(tǒng)由土地利用、人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)和環(huán)境四個(gè)子系統(tǒng)組成,子系統(tǒng)相互作用的核心是生產(chǎn)要素的投入產(chǎn)出。基于結(jié)構(gòu)分析構(gòu)建的城市土地集約利用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型,從邏輯上梳理各子系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部及之間的因果關(guān)系,合理設(shè)計(jì)相應(yīng)變量和建立關(guān)系方程,能夠很好地仿真武漢市城市土地集約利用系統(tǒng)；基于結(jié)構(gòu)屬性構(gòu)建的城市土地集約利用預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系,通過(guò)科學(xué)合理地劃分警度,能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)從系統(tǒng)、子系統(tǒng)和單因子三層次對(duì)未來(lái)警情的判定。 (2)武漢市城市土地集約利用系統(tǒng)在2012-2020年間有輕警到中警的趨勢(shì),其主要來(lái)源于三方面：一是,城市土地利用效率不夠,城市土地的擴(kuò)張速度大于城市人口發(fā)展速度,造成人口-土地利用子系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)性的輕警；二是,城市土地利用強(qiáng)度不夠,城市土地以占用耕地、未利用地等方式擴(kuò)張,造成耕地和生態(tài)用地嚴(yán)重警情；三是,城市土地利用方向與城市居民生活需求不匹配,造成城市土地集約利用社會(huì)效益巨警。 (3)針對(duì)武漢市城市土地集約利用系統(tǒng)可能出現(xiàn)的警情,提出從保證土地資源安全、制定城市土地利用規(guī)劃、生產(chǎn)要素適度規(guī)模組合投入三方面制定排警措施,設(shè)計(jì)新增建設(shè)用地占用耕地比例、建筑密度、容積率、人均用地面積建設(shè)投入比例、勞動(dòng)者工資水平、技術(shù)貢獻(xiàn)系數(shù)等變量作為政策模擬的可控因素。
[Abstract]:Intensive utilization of urban land is the fundamental measure and key link to solve the contradiction between man and land, development and resources in the process of urbanization. The early warning of intensive utilization of urban land is the prior control and management of the evolution trend of urban land intensive utilization system. This paper defines intensive utilization of urban land as a comprehensive system, selects Wuhan as the research area, describes the conceptual model of intensive utilization of urban land by system theory, and constructs a system dynamic simulation model with its structure. According to the theory and method of early warning, the early warning index system is constructed with its attributes, and the warning degree of early warning index is reasonably divided, and the police situation and its magnitude of intensive utilization of urban land in Wuhan from 2012 to 2020 are forecasted. The research result of this paper is the practice innovation of the system simulation of intensive utilization of urban land and multi-index comprehensive early warning. The main research conclusions are as follows:. The urban intensive land use system in Wuhan is composed of four subsystems: land use, population, economy and environment. The core of subsystem interaction is the input and output of factors of production. The dynamic model of intensive utilization of urban land based on structural analysis is used to sort out the causality within and between subsystems logically. Reasonable design of corresponding variables and establishment of relational equations can well simulate the intensive utilization system of urban land in Wuhan, and the early warning index system of intensive utilization of urban land based on structural attributes can be divided scientifically and reasonably. Can realize from the system, subsystem and single factor three levels to judge the future situation. (2) the urban land intensive utilization system in Wuhan has the tendency of light warning to middle police in 2012-2020, which mainly comes from three aspects: first, the urban land use efficiency is not enough, and the urban land expansion rate is faster than the urban population development speed. The second is that the intensity of urban land use is not enough and urban land expands in such ways as occupying cultivated land and unused land, resulting in a serious warning situation of cultivated land and ecological land. The direction of urban land use does not match with the living needs of urban residents, which results in great social benefits of intensive use of urban land. (3) in view of the possible police situation of urban land intensive utilization system in Wuhan, the paper puts forward three measures to prevent police from ensuring the safety of land resources, formulating urban land use planning, and combining the appropriate scale of production factors. Such variables as the proportion of cultivated land occupied by the newly added construction land, the building density, the volume ratio, the proportion of construction input per capita, the wage level of workers and the coefficient of technical contribution are the controllable factors of policy simulation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;N941.3

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