發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-18 21:53

  本文選題：券商　切入點(diǎn)：大盤走勢　出處：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：我國股票市場雖然經(jīng)歷了 20多年快速發(fā)展,但仍然還是一個(gè)由散戶主導(dǎo)的市場。大多數(shù)散戶以短期投資為主,他們的決策路徑往往首先基于大盤的走勢判斷,然后進(jìn)行個(gè)股選擇。但缺乏專業(yè)的知識(shí)和投資分析技術(shù),多數(shù)散戶對(duì)大盤的走勢判斷主要依賴于券商的分析。因此,券商對(duì)大盤的走勢預(yù)測很大程度上影響了散戶的投資決策。然而,券商的預(yù)測到底有多大的可信度呢?他們的預(yù)測結(jié)果能真正指導(dǎo)投資者嗎?不同類別券商對(duì)大盤走勢預(yù)測的可信度是否存在差異?對(duì)于這些問題,目前國內(nèi)鮮有學(xué)者進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)的研究,從而使得券商的預(yù)測價(jià)值倍受散戶質(zhì)疑�；诖�,本研究以券商對(duì)大盤的走勢預(yù)測為研究對(duì)象,首先對(duì)相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)梳理;然后,構(gòu)建預(yù)測誤差測度方法、誤差標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和好友指數(shù);在此基礎(chǔ)上選取2011-2015年不同券商對(duì)大盤趨勢預(yù)測和實(shí)際走勢作為分析樣本,運(yùn)用統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件EXCEL、SPSS19.0和Eviews8.0進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析;最后通過相關(guān)理論探討其中的偏差原因,從而為散戶投資者進(jìn)行理性的投資決策提供必要的指導(dǎo)。本研究主要結(jié)論有:(1)券商對(duì)大盤的走勢預(yù)測誤差較大,對(duì)趨勢的判斷能力一般,散戶不能根據(jù)券商的預(yù)測結(jié)果簡單判斷大盤的未來走勢;(2)不同類別券商的預(yù)測誤差存在顯著性差異,其中C類券商預(yù)測誤差顯著低于A類和B類券商,因此,低等級(jí)券商的預(yù)測結(jié)論對(duì)散戶更具指導(dǎo)價(jià)值;(3)不同市場態(tài)勢下,券商的預(yù)測存在顯著差異,在熊市中券商的預(yù)測誤差較牛市中稍小,且券商對(duì)趨勢的判斷在熊市中比在牛市中更樂觀;(4)當(dāng)券商對(duì)大盤趨勢高度一致看多或看空時(shí),散戶最好采用逆向操作方法。本研究創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)在兩個(gè)方面:一是在研究內(nèi)容上針對(duì)券商對(duì)大盤走勢的預(yù)測進(jìn)行研究,在一定程度上彌補(bǔ)了國內(nèi)關(guān)于券商對(duì)大盤走勢區(qū)間預(yù)測誤差研究的不足;二是系統(tǒng)全面選取最新的樣本數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)我國不同等級(jí)券商的大盤走勢預(yù)測誤差進(jìn)行對(duì)比,從而使得研究結(jié)果更具針對(duì)性和時(shí)效性。
[Abstract]:Although China's stock market has experienced rapid development for more than 20 years, it is still a market dominated by retail investors. Then the stock selection. But lack of professional knowledge and investment analysis technology, most retail market trend judgment mainly depends on the analysis of securities firms. Brokerage forecasts for the market have a large impact on retail investment decisions. However, how credible is the broker's forecast? Can their forecasts really guide investors? Is there any difference in the credibility of the market trend forecast for different types of securities firms? For these problems, few domestic scholars carry out systematic research, which makes the forecast value of securities companies more doubtful. Based on this, this study takes the trend prediction of securities market as the research object. First of all, the related theories are systematically combed; then, the prediction error measure method, error standard and friend index are constructed. Based on this, different securities companies are selected to forecast the trend and the actual trend of the market from 2011 to 2015 as the analysis samples. The statistical software excel SPSS 19.0 and Eviews8.0 are used to compare and analyze. Finally, the causes of deviation are discussed through relevant theories. Thus providing necessary guidance for retail investors to make rational investment decisions. The main conclusions of this study are: (1) the stock market trend forecast error is large, and the judgment ability to the trend is general. Retail investors can not simply judge the future trend of the market according to the forecast results of securities companies.) there are significant differences in the prediction errors of different types of securities firms, among which the forecasting errors of class C securities firms are significantly lower than those of class A and B securities firms, so, The prediction results of low-grade securities firms have more guiding value for retail investors. Under different market situations, there are significant differences in the prediction of securities firms, and the prediction error of securities firms in bear market is slightly smaller than that in bull market. And securities firms' judgment of trends is more optimistic in bear markets than in bull markets.) when securities firms are highly consistent with the trend of the market, they are either bullish or bullish. Retail investors had better use reverse operation method. The innovation of this research is in two aspects: first, in the research content of the stock market trend forecast for securities companies to carry out research. To a certain extent, it makes up for the deficiency of the domestic research on the interval prediction error of securities companies' market trend. Secondly, it systematically selects the latest sample data and compares the market trend prediction errors of different grades of securities companies in our country. In order to make the research results more targeted and timely.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51

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