在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資中對(duì)創(chuàng)始人基于模糊層次分析法的投資決策分析
發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-03-18 14:24
本文選題:風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資 切入點(diǎn):創(chuàng)始人 出處:《西南大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文 論文類型:學(xué)位論文
【摘要】:風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資在當(dāng)今的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中發(fā)揮著舉足輕重的作用,不僅能幫助中小企業(yè)順利渡過(guò)早期資金短缺階段,還能促進(jìn)科學(xué)實(shí)驗(yàn)技術(shù)的市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)化,同時(shí)資本的力量還能推動(dòng)中國(guó)特色社會(huì)主義市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷完善。但是其投資決策仍沒(méi)有形成一套科學(xué)高效的機(jī)制及方法。故本文以此作為出發(fā)點(diǎn)進(jìn)行撰寫。自從上世紀(jì)80年,我國(guó)開始出現(xiàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資,至今已有30余年。這期間風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資在我國(guó)的發(fā)展突飛猛進(jìn)。但因?yàn)轱L(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資是一項(xiàng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)極大、投資階段很多、投資領(lǐng)域很寬,投資決策很復(fù)雜的工作。故根據(jù)投資對(duì)象的發(fā)展階段和所屬領(lǐng)域,目前國(guó)內(nèi)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資基金劃分為各種類別。經(jīng)作者分析比較,在種子期和天使期的項(xiàng)目,創(chuàng)始人這個(gè)因素在整個(gè)投資決策中至關(guān)重要,是從古至今對(duì)“人”的評(píng)估都是一件難度極高的事情,因此很難進(jìn)行量化考核與評(píng)估。為完成本研究,筆者在重慶易一天使投資有限公司工作一年,通過(guò)認(rèn)真研究該公司的投資方法,并以國(guó)內(nèi)外數(shù)十家知名風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資機(jī)構(gòu)的投資標(biāo)準(zhǔn)作為驗(yàn)證,以期構(gòu)建完善的投資評(píng)估體系。經(jīng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)重慶易一天使投資有限公司的投資標(biāo)準(zhǔn)基本完善,可以作為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資的基本評(píng)估標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。重慶易一天使投資有限公司的這一套投資標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是從商業(yè)本質(zhì)推導(dǎo)建立起來(lái)的,所以從表面上看六個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)中有五個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是對(duì)“事”的評(píng)估,只有一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是評(píng)估“人”的。但是在筆者看來(lái)這些“事”都是基于“人”,故作者將重慶易一天使投資有限公司的投資標(biāo)準(zhǔn)總結(jié)為“人的內(nèi)因”和“人的外因”這兩個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。但是通過(guò)研究可知,實(shí)際上可以完全滿足所有標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的早期項(xiàng)目幾乎沒(méi)有,所有項(xiàng)目只能部分程度得達(dá)到部分標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。但經(jīng)過(guò)實(shí)際檢驗(yàn),不能完全達(dá)到所有標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的項(xiàng)目也可以成功。所以研究的重點(diǎn)就是“達(dá)到標(biāo)準(zhǔn)什么程度的項(xiàng)目是可以投資的?”為了解決這一問(wèn)題,首先需要將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資標(biāo)準(zhǔn)進(jìn)行融合。經(jīng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn),在信息融合領(lǐng)域使用的主要數(shù)學(xué)工具或方法有貝葉斯方法、證據(jù)理論、模糊理論和神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)等。本文通過(guò)分析對(duì)比發(fā)現(xiàn)在此問(wèn)題上使用層次分析法和模糊理論較為合適。在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資領(lǐng)域,對(duì)人的評(píng)估很多時(shí)候是感性、模糊的。所以在對(duì)投資標(biāo)準(zhǔn)進(jìn)行融合的時(shí)候使用的模糊數(shù)的方法對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行處理,使得數(shù)據(jù)處理更加接近真實(shí)情況,得出更精準(zhǔn)的數(shù)據(jù)。因?yàn)楸痉椒ㄖ饕獞?yīng)用于天使投資領(lǐng)域的項(xiàng)目評(píng)估及投資決策,在業(yè)內(nèi)一個(gè)天使項(xiàng)目如果可以進(jìn)入到A輪,那說(shuō)明該項(xiàng)目的天使投資基本上算是成功的。所以,筆者利用之前在創(chuàng)投圈的一些渠道對(duì)數(shù)十個(gè)已經(jīng)獲得A輪的項(xiàng)目及創(chuàng)始人進(jìn)行評(píng)測(cè),以實(shí)際案例作為本文依據(jù)。經(jīng)分析,對(duì)數(shù)十個(gè)已經(jīng)進(jìn)入A輪的項(xiàng)目創(chuàng)始人評(píng)測(cè)得分均在一個(gè)合理區(qū)間內(nèi)(7,8)。所以今后用同樣的方法對(duì)天使期的項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行評(píng)測(cè),如果評(píng)測(cè)結(jié)果低于7,則不能通過(guò)投資決策。本文通過(guò)研究獲得一套切實(shí)可行的投資系統(tǒng),可以對(duì)天使期的創(chuàng)業(yè)項(xiàng)目針對(duì)創(chuàng)始人進(jìn)行投資決策評(píng)估。此系統(tǒng)在整個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資基金中作為基礎(chǔ)決策支持。主要是幫助基金中低層投資經(jīng)理快速、精準(zhǔn)判斷項(xiàng)目。為基金的“投資決策會(huì)”提供決策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:The risk investment in our social economic development plays an important role, not only can help SMEs smoothly through the early stage of shortage of funds, but also to promote the scientific experiment technology market transformation, at the same time, the power of capital can promote the China characteristics of the continuous improvement of socialist market economy. But the investment decision is still not formed a set of scientific and effective mechanism and method. This paper takes it as a starting point for writing. Since 80 years of the last century, our country began to venture capital, venture capital has been more than 30 years. The rapid development in China during this period. But because of the risk of investment is a risky investment stage, many investment field is very wide, the investment decision is very complex the work. So according to the development stage and belongs to the field of investment, the current domestic risk investment fund is divided into various categories. The author analysis Relatively, in seed and angel of the project, the founder of factors is extremely important in the investment decision-making, is the evaluation of the "people" since ancient times is a very difficult thing, so it is difficult to make quantitative assessment and evaluation. For the completion of this study, the author in Chongqing Yi an angel Investment Co. Ltd. a year through careful study, method of investment of the company, and dozens of well-known domestic and foreign venture capital investment as the standard verification, constructing perfect investment evaluation system in order. The study found that Chongqing Yi an angel investment limited investment standard is perfect, can be used as a basic evaluation criteria for this set of venture capital investment. Chongqing Yi an angel investment standard Investment Company Limited is established from the commercial nature of the derivation, so on the surface of six standard five of the standards for the evaluation of the "thing", only A standard is the evaluation of "people". But in my opinion these "things" are based on "people", so the author will Chongqing an angel investment limited investment criteria summed up as "the internal" and "external" two standards. But the study shows, in fact can fully meet early in the project all the standard almost no, only part of the project to all part of the standard. But after the actual test, can not fully meet all the criteria the project can be successful. So the focus of the study is to what extent the standard items can be invested? "In order to solve this problem, first of all need to be the fusion of venture investment. The study found that a Bayesian method in the main mathematical tools or methods used in the field of information fusion, evidence theory, fuzzy theory and neural network based. This issue of comparative analysis found on the use of AHP and fuzzy theory is more appropriate. In the field of risk assessment of investment, people are often emotional, fuzzy. So data in the method of fuzzy number using fusion when on the investment criteria for processing, the data processing is more close to the actual situation, it is more accurate the data. Because this method is mainly used in the field of angel investment project evaluation and investment decision in the industry, a project if the angel can enter into the A round, that the project is basically angel investment success. Therefore, the author uses some channels of venture capital circles before the logarithm ten have been obtained and the founder of the project A round of evaluation, based on the actual cases as the basis. Through the analysis, log ten has entered the A round of the project founder evaluation scores were at a reasonable interval (7,8). So in the future in the same way to the angel of the project evaluation, the evaluation results if less than 7, not by the investment decision. We obtain a set of feasible investment system through the research of angel of the business project for the founder of investment evaluation. This system as a basis for decision-making in the venture investment fund support mainly to help fund low level investment managers quickly, accurately determine the project. For the fund's investment decision will provide the basis for decision making.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:西南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2017
【分類號(hào)】:F832.48
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