發(fā)布時間：2018-03-07 16:21

  本文選題：資本項目　切入點：開放測度　出處：《華東師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：我國自加入WTO以來,經(jīng)濟、金融發(fā)展迅速,融入全球化的步伐不斷加快,2010年,我國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)超過日本,成為名副其實的世界第二大經(jīng)濟體。隨著我國經(jīng)濟持續(xù)穩(wěn)定增長、人民幣幣值保持基本穩(wěn)定、匯改政策的不斷深化,人民幣作為結(jié)算交易媒介、支付手段和儲藏手段,不僅在我國周邊國家和地區(qū)顯示出強勁的影響力,而且在國際上的影響面也在不斷擴大,人民幣國際化正悄然而行。資本項目的開放會促進人民幣的境外持有和流通,擴大供給,對人民幣的國際化起到促進作用。但是,受2008年全球金融危機影響,全球主要經(jīng)濟體普遍實行量化寬松,美元、歐元、日元等主要國際貨幣爭相貶值,人民幣卻表現(xiàn)強勢,持續(xù)升值,在這樣的背景下,我國的資本賬戶管制一旦放開,面對資本大規(guī)模的洶涌流入,我國的資本市場和金融體系必將遭受嚴(yán)重沖擊。前車之鑒,后世之師,日本、俄羅斯、巴西和印度四國都在此問題上提供足夠經(jīng)驗教訓(xùn),面對變幻莫測的國際金融動蕩,喪失資本管制屏障的國家在資本大規(guī)模外逃時表現(xiàn)無力,而引發(fā)的一系列金融問題持續(xù)發(fā)酵,對這些國家的實體經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生至今都未完全消除的負面影響,因此,有關(guān)一國資本項目的管制與開放一直是經(jīng)濟學(xué)界討論的重點,本文以此為研究對象,分析了資本項目開放的收益和風(fēng)險,構(gòu)建貨幣危機預(yù)警模型的重要性和方法,試圖對資本項目開放這一涉及我國經(jīng)濟健康運行和金融穩(wěn)定的熱點問題,提出具有實質(zhì)意義的風(fēng)險防范措施和具體推進策略。 本文研究的思路如下：導(dǎo)論→資本項目開放的理論綜述→資本項目開放的測度研究→資本項目開放的風(fēng)險分析→我國資本項目擴大開放的總體策略。具體為： 第一部分是導(dǎo)論,主要概括闡述了資本項目開放相關(guān)研究的國外內(nèi)成果,并給出了本文的分析思路。第二部分是全文的理論基礎(chǔ),給出了對資本賬戶開放與貨幣危機的概念界定,并對資本項目開放的經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)展開包括收益和風(fēng)險兩個方面的理論分析。第三部分在分析我國資本賬戶開放歷史發(fā)展和現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,測算了我國目前的資本賬戶開放的程度。第四部分以我國2006-2011年六年的內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)為研究對象,運用KLR信號法的第一個復(fù)合指標(biāo)對我國資本賬戶開放的危險程度進行測算,建立我國的貨幣危機預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系。第五部分從制約因素為切入點提出我國資本項目進一步擴大的重點和政策政策。 本文運用開放式和約束式兩種方法對我國的資本項目開放程度進行測算,得出我國的資本項目開放目前處于中等開放水平、并且在曲折中不斷加快開放的結(jié)論。以我國2006年到2011年的十個經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)為指標(biāo)建立風(fēng)險預(yù)警模型,測算出我國的資本項目開放目前處于基本安全、但需警惕的警戒級區(qū)域。對于處于經(jīng)濟全球化進程中的我國來說,開放資本賬戶已是大勢所趨。為此,基于上述分析結(jié)果,從分析制約我國進一步開放的因素開始,以解除制約因素為著手點,提出了我國資本項目擴大開放的推進策略,并對構(gòu)建我國的安全金融網(wǎng)絡(luò)提出了自己的看法,以期對我國的實際資本項目開放推進有所助益。
[Abstract]:Our country since joining the WTO, the economy, the rapid development of financial globalization, accelerating the pace of 2010, China's gross domestic product (GDP) surpassed Japan to become the world's second largest economy. Worthy of the name as China's steady economic growth, the value of the Renminbi remained stable, deepening the reform policy, the RMB as a medium of exchange settlement, payment means and storage means, not only show strong influence in China's neighboring countries and regions, and the impact on the international plane is also expanding, RMB internationalization is quietly. The opening of the capital will promote the RMB offshore holding and circulation, the expansion of supply, to promote the RMB the internationalization. However, by 2008, the global financial crisis, the world's major economies generally implemented quantitative easing, the dollar, euro, yen and other major international currencies competing The devaluation of RMB, but the strong performance, the continued appreciation, in this context, China's capital account controls once open, facing massive capital inflows surging, China's capital market and the financial system will suffer serious impact. Past, future generations of division, Japan, Russia, Brazil and India, are provided on this issue enough experience, in the face of the international financial turmoil change unpredictably, the loss of capital control barrier state in the large-scale capital flight performance weakness, a series of financial problems caused by continuous fermentation, have a negative impact, has not been completely eliminated for these countries in the real economy, therefore, the relevant control and opening of capital projects has been the focus of discussion in economic field, this paper as the research object, analyzes the benefits and risks of capital account liberalization, the importance of establishing the early warning model of currency crisis And methods, trying to put forward substantive risk prevention measures and specific strategies for opening capital account, which is a hot issue involving China's healthy economic operation and financial stability.
The research ideas of this paper are as follows: introduction to the theoretical review of capital account liberalization, the measurement of capital account openness, the risk analysis of capital account opening, and the overall strategy of China's capital account expansion and opening up.
The first part is the introduction, mainly summed up the achievements in foreign capital account opening related research, and gives the basic idea of this paper. The second part is the theoretical basis of the thesis, gives the concept of capital account liberalization and currency crisis definition, and on capital project economic effect on expansion including two aspects of income and the risk theory. The third part based on the analysis of the historical development and current situation of China's capital account opening, estimates China's current capital account openness. The fourth part of our 2006-2011 years six years of domestic economic data as the research object, the degree of risk of China's capital account opening the first composite index using KLR signal to measure, a currency crisis early warning index system of our country. The fifth part from the factors as the starting point of China's capital projects to further expand the Focus and policy policy.
This paper uses open and constrained two methods to the extent of China's capital account liberalization estimates, that China's capital account liberalization is currently at a medium level of opening up, and constantly open up the conclusion in twists and turns. In China from 2006 to ten 2011 economic data to establish risk early-warning model for index, calculate China's capital account opening is currently in the basic security alert level region but need to be wary of. For our country in the process of economic globalization, capital account liberalization is represent the general trend. Therefore, based on the above analysis, from the analysis of factors restricting China's further opening up, start to lift the restriction factors as a starting point, put forward China's capital projects to expand the opening up strategy, and put forward their views on the financial security network construction in our country, in order to put open capital account on China's actual It's helpful to get in.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.51

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本文編號：1580028