本文選題：德令哈市　切入點(diǎn)：建設(shè)用地?cái)U(kuò)展　出處：《甘肅農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：德令哈市是海西蒙古族藏族自治州首府，也是青海省除西寧市和格爾木市以外的第三大城市，在國(guó)家西部大開(kāi)發(fā)戰(zhàn)略中居于重要地位。德令哈市城市建設(shè)用地?cái)U(kuò)展研究，對(duì)海西蒙古族藏族自治州乃至整個(gè)西部地區(qū)城市發(fā)展具有重要的參考意義。 本研究首先借助RS和GIS技術(shù)，對(duì)德令哈市1989年TM、1999年和2011年ETM遙感影像數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析處理，采用人機(jī)交互目視解譯法提取德令哈市建成區(qū)邊界圖，并將3個(gè)時(shí)期的建成區(qū)范圍圖疊加；然后從城市擴(kuò)展強(qiáng)度、重心坐標(biāo)轉(zhuǎn)移、緊湊度指數(shù)、分形維數(shù)指數(shù)以及城市擴(kuò)展彈性系數(shù)等角度對(duì)德令哈市建成區(qū)的空間擴(kuò)展?fàn)顩r進(jìn)行分析；結(jié)果顯示：1989-1999年和1999-2011年這2個(gè)階段，，德令哈市建成區(qū)的面積都在增加，但是1999-2011年，建成區(qū)面積的擴(kuò)展速度和強(qiáng)度都大于1989-1999年；建成區(qū)重心坐標(biāo)第一階段向西北方向偏移，第二階段向南偏移，緊湊度指數(shù)偏小，并逐漸減小，分形維數(shù)指數(shù)比合理值1.12大很多，城市空間演變形態(tài)趨于復(fù)雜；城市擴(kuò)展彈性系數(shù)偏大，并有上升趨勢(shì)，城市人口增加與城區(qū)面積擴(kuò)展不協(xié)調(diào)。 然后，從自然地理因素、社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素、交通因素和政策因素角度對(duì)德令哈市城市建設(shè)用地?cái)U(kuò)展進(jìn)行剖析。地形地貌、氣候地質(zhì)和水資源等自然地理因素，是城市建設(shè)用地?cái)U(kuò)展的基礎(chǔ)條件；城市人口增長(zhǎng)、社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、交通設(shè)施條件和重要的政策定位等是德令哈市城市建設(shè)用地?cái)U(kuò)展的重要驅(qū)動(dòng)因子。自然地理因素很大程度上決定了德令哈市城市擴(kuò)展的主體方向，城市建設(shè)應(yīng)控制向北發(fā)展，總體向南發(fā)展，適度向東、西部擴(kuò)展；社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素直接影響城市擴(kuò)展的潛力、方向、速度、模式以及空間結(jié)構(gòu)。 最后，用近十年的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境數(shù)據(jù)為樣本，建立了多元線性回歸模型、灰色系統(tǒng)GM（1,1）預(yù)測(cè)模型和趨勢(shì)外推模型，對(duì)德令哈市2020年的城市建設(shè)用地規(guī)模進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)，以期為德令哈市未來(lái)的發(fā)展規(guī)劃提供借鑒作用。
[Abstract]:Delingha is the capital of Hercynian Mongolian Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, and the third largest city in Qinghai Province, besides Xining and Golmud, and plays an important role in the strategy of national western development. It has important reference significance for the urban development of Hexi Mongolian Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture and the whole western region. In this study, the remote sensing data of ETM on 1989, 1999 and 2011 in Delingha were analyzed and processed by means of RS and GIS techniques. The boundary map of the built area of Delingha was extracted by human-computer interactive visual interpretation. The area map of the three periods is superimposed, and then the intensity of urban expansion, the coordinate of gravity center, the index of compactness are transferred. The fractal dimension index and the elasticity coefficient of urban expansion are used to analyze the spatial expansion of the built-up areas in Delingha. The results show that the area of the built-up areas in Delingha is increasing in the two stages of the period from 1989 to 1999 and from 1999 to 2011, but from 1999 to 2011, The expansion speed and intensity of the built-up area are both higher than that of 1989-1999. In the first stage of the gravity center coordinate of the built area, the direction of the center of gravity is shifted northwestward, the second stage moves southward, the compactness index is smaller and gradually decreases, and the fractal dimension index is much larger than the reasonable value of 1.12. The evolvement of urban space tends to be complicated, the elasticity coefficient of urban expansion is on the large side, and there is a rising trend, and the increase of urban population is not in harmony with the expansion of urban area. Then, from the perspective of natural geography, social and economic factors, traffic factors and policy factors, the paper analyzes the expansion of urban construction land in Delingha. The physical and geographical factors, such as topography, climate geology and water resources, are analyzed. Is the basic condition for urban construction land expansion; urban population growth, social and economic development, Transportation facilities and important policy orientation are the important driving factors of urban construction land expansion in Delingha. Natural geographical factors largely determine the main direction of urban expansion in Delingha, and urban construction should be controlled northward. The social and economic factors directly affect the potential, direction, speed, pattern and spatial structure of urban expansion. Finally, using the social economic environment data of nearly ten years as the sample, the multivariate linear regression model, the grey system GM1 / 1) prediction model and the trend extrapolation model are established to predict the scale of urban construction land in Delingha in 2020. In order to provide reference for the future development planning of Delingha.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：甘肅農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.23

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