本文關(guān)鍵詞： P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸模式 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制 博弈分析 保費(fèi)定價(jià)　出處：《西安電子科技大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融是利用網(wǎng)絡(luò)平臺(tái)為客戶辦理轉(zhuǎn)賬支付、投資理財(cái)、小額信貸等傳統(tǒng)金融業(yè)務(wù)的新型金融服務(wù)機(jī)構(gòu),是網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)和消費(fèi)需求不斷發(fā)展變化的必然產(chǎn)物。它的出現(xiàn)使目前的信貸模式更加多樣化、全面化,成功彌補(bǔ)了傳統(tǒng)金融模式在參與度、操作性和成本等方面的不足。在其細(xì)分領(lǐng)域中,P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸模式以依托互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)和大數(shù)據(jù)的巨大優(yōu)勢(shì),無(wú)疑成為占領(lǐng)市場(chǎng)和引領(lǐng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融業(yè)發(fā)展的主要模式,給傳統(tǒng)金融模式帶來(lái)沖擊。截止2014年6月末,P2P借貸平臺(tái)數(shù)量達(dá)1263家,上半年成交額近1000億元人民幣,接近2013年全年成交金額。P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸行業(yè)各項(xiàng)指標(biāo)呈現(xiàn)井噴式增長(zhǎng)。然而,2011年以來(lái),陸續(xù)有57家P2P網(wǎng)貸平臺(tái)倒閉或出現(xiàn)逾期提現(xiàn)問題。不可否認(rèn),正是由于P2P借貸模式的優(yōu)勢(shì)和特殊性,給它帶來(lái)了一定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),其中以資金安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較為突出。因此,本文針對(duì)P2P模式的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究提出了可行的防范措施,彌補(bǔ)了我國(guó)在網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范定量研究方面的缺失,為P2P平臺(tái)在防范風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、豐富網(wǎng)絡(luò)大數(shù)據(jù)資源、汲取傳統(tǒng)金融模式在業(yè)務(wù)服務(wù)和信用體系建設(shè)等方面的優(yōu)勢(shì)以及探索可持續(xù)的共贏金融服務(wù)模式方面提供了新思路。首先,通過詳細(xì)對(duì)比分析新型網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸模式與傳統(tǒng)信貸模式的特征優(yōu)劣勢(shì),對(duì)我國(guó)網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸模式面臨的各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了識(shí)別。其次,在現(xiàn)有P2P平臺(tái)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范措施存在不足之處的基礎(chǔ)上,從政府環(huán)境、平臺(tái)運(yùn)營(yíng)和納入新主體-保險(xiǎn)的角度提出了具體的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范方法。在平臺(tái)方面,運(yùn)用二元logistic回歸分析出信用等級(jí)變量對(duì)于是否逾期具有較強(qiáng)相關(guān)性,進(jìn)而通過有序Probit回歸模型得出公司行業(yè)、年齡、收入、公司規(guī)模和工作時(shí)間變量對(duì)信用等級(jí)的影響程度較大,給出平臺(tái)方面完善信用評(píng)級(jí)體系防范逾期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的關(guān)注重點(diǎn)。其中,本文率先提出將“保險(xiǎn)”納入P2P網(wǎng)貸模式的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范新思路,并通過對(duì)新舊平臺(tái)的博弈分析、基于預(yù)期損失定價(jià)模型的保費(fèi)測(cè)算和三方期望利潤(rùn)的蒙特卡洛模擬進(jìn)行違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)量的實(shí)證研究,得到不同的信用等級(jí)用戶對(duì)應(yīng)的保費(fèi)費(fèi)率區(qū)間。分析表明,納入保險(xiǎn)后的借貸平臺(tái)可以更好地降低信息不對(duì)稱情況下的道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn),用戶、平臺(tái)和保險(xiǎn)機(jī)構(gòu)也會(huì)獲得更高的期望利潤(rùn)。證明了三方共同參與的P2P平臺(tái)是一個(gè)互利共贏、有效防范風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、趨向于帕累托最優(yōu)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸模式,具有一定的理論和實(shí)踐意義。
[Abstract]:The Internet is a network platform for financial transfer payment for the customer, finance and investment, new financial service institutions of traditional financial business microfinance, is the inevitable product of network technology and consumer demand changing. It appears that the current credit mode is more diverse, comprehensive, make up the traditional financial model in and lack of operability and cost. In its segments, P2P lending patterns to relying on the great advantages of Internet technology and big data, will undoubtedly become the main mode of occupation of the market and lead the Internet financial industry development, the impact of the traditional financial model. As of 2014 6 at the end of 1263, the number of P2P lending platform home, the first half of the turnover of nearly 100 billion yuan, close to the 2013 annual turnover indicators of the amount of.P2P networks lending industry showing growth spurt. However, on 2011 To have a 57 P2P net loan platform collapse or overdue cash problems. Admittedly, it is due to the P2P lending mode advantage and particularity, bring certain risks to it, the liquidity risk and default risk is more prominent. Therefore, the risk research for P2P model is proposed the feasible preventive measures, to make up for the deficiency in China in the quantitative research on the risks of network lending, P2P platform in risk prevention, the rich network of large data resources, provides a new way to learn the advantages of the traditional financial model in the aspect of business services and credit system construction and explore win-win financial services model first sustainable. Through the comparative analysis, with the new network lending model and traditional credit model features advantages and disadvantages of various risks facing the network lending model in China were identified. Secondly, the existing P2P flat Taiwan based risk prevention measures shortcomings, from the government environment, platform operators and incorporated into the new subject insurance puts forward specific risk prevention methods. In the platform, the use of two yuan of logistic regression analysis showed the credit rating variable has a strong correlation for overdue, and then through the ordered Probit regression model that the company industry, age, income, influence the company scale and work time variables on the credit rating of the larger, improve the focus of the credit rating system to prevent overdue risk given platform. Among them, the paper first proposed the "insurance" into the new idea of risk P2P net loan model, and through the game of the new platform analysis, empirical research the default risk measurement of the Monte Carlo simulation calculation of the expected loss premium pricing model and three party based on the expected profit, get different credit The user level corresponding to the premium rate interval. The results show that, after the insurance into lending platform can better reduce the moral hazard under asymmetric information of users, platforms and insurance institutions will get a higher expected profit. It is proved that P2P participated in the three party platform is a win-win situation, effective risk prevention, network borrowing mode tends to be Pareto optimal, has certain theoretical and practical significance.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安電子科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F724.6;F832.4

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

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4 溫，

本文編號(hào)：1534798