發(fā)布時(shí)間：2017-12-31 16:33

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)與股票市場(chǎng)互動(dòng)關(guān)系研究　出處：《天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng) 股票市場(chǎng) 互動(dòng)關(guān)系

【摘要】：自1998年我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)改革以來,房地產(chǎn)和股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展迅猛,兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)吸引了龐大的資金流,房產(chǎn)和股票已成為我國(guó)居民最主要的兩類投資對(duì)象,尤其是房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)經(jīng)過十六年的發(fā)展已經(jīng)成為我國(guó)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),二者對(duì)于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的騰飛做出的巨大貢獻(xiàn)是不言而喻的。必須指出的是,雖然兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)都為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展注入了新鮮的血液,但我國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)和股價(jià)都不理性,過去的十年房地產(chǎn)一路高歌猛進(jìn),房?jī)r(jià)虛高,而股票市場(chǎng)卻表現(xiàn)的大起大落,股價(jià)波幅過大,這兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)已儼然成為我國(guó)重要的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)積聚場(chǎng)所,所以在當(dāng)前我國(guó)不斷深化經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的關(guān)鍵時(shí)期,揭示房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)和股票市場(chǎng)的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系,對(duì)于投資者優(yōu)化投資組合以及政府制定宏觀調(diào)整政策具有重要的學(xué)術(shù)意義和實(shí)際意義。論文回顧了我國(guó)房市和股市的發(fā)展歷程,從四個(gè)角度(資產(chǎn)組合理論、財(cái)富效應(yīng)、信貸作用和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素)深入闡述了兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)互動(dòng)關(guān)系的作用機(jī)理,在構(gòu)建向量自回歸模型的基礎(chǔ)上,采用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)法、格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)法和脈沖響應(yīng)分析法分三個(gè)階段對(duì)中國(guó)的房市和股市間的互動(dòng)關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證探究,最終得出以下結(jié)論,1999-2005年間股市和房市呈現(xiàn)弱的負(fù)相關(guān)性,并且此階段房市占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位；2006-2009年間股市和房市呈現(xiàn)出較顯著的正相關(guān)性,此時(shí)股市占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位；2010-2013年間股市和房市的作用關(guān)系較為復(fù)雜,實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果不顯著。實(shí)證章節(jié)最后一部分詳細(xì)闡明、解釋了三個(gè)階段出現(xiàn)不同互動(dòng)關(guān)系的原因,并且就協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)和股票市場(chǎng)提出了一些建設(shè)性的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the real estate market reform in 1998, the real estate and stock market has developed rapidly, the two markets have attracted huge capital flow, real estate and stock has become the most important two types of investment objects of Chinese residents. In particular, the real estate industry has become the pillar industry of our country after 16 years of development, both of which have made great contribution to the rapid development of China's economy is self-evident. It must be pointed out. Although both markets have injected fresh blood into the development of China's economy, China's housing prices and stock prices are irrational, the past decade of real estate has been soaring, real estate prices are high. However, the stock market has shown great ups and downs, the volatility of the stock price is too large, these two markets have become an important place for risk accumulation in China. Therefore, in the key period of deepening the economic system reform and industrial structure adjustment, the paper reveals the internal relationship between the real estate market and the stock market. It is of great academic and practical significance for investors to optimize their portfolios and the government to formulate macro-adjustment policies. This paper reviews the development of China's housing market and stock market from four perspectives (portfolio theory). The mechanism of interaction between the two markets is expounded in depth. Based on the construction of vector autoregressive model, cointegration test method is adopted. Granger causality test and impulse response analysis are divided into three stages to explore the interactive relationship between the housing market and the stock market in China, and finally draw the following conclusions. From 1999 to 2005, the stock market and the housing market showed weak negative correlation, and the housing market dominated in this period; From 2006 to 2009, the stock market and the housing market showed a significant positive correlation, at this time the stock market occupied a dominant position; From 2010 to 2013, the relationship between stock market and housing market is more complex, the empirical test results are not significant. The last part of the empirical chapter explains the three stages of different interaction in detail. And put forward some constructive policy suggestions to coordinate the development of our real estate market and stock market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F832.51

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本文編號(hào)：1360584