【摘要】：本文回顧了國內(nèi)外關(guān)于審計意見與銀行信貸決策關(guān)系的研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)無論在國內(nèi)還是國外學(xué)者們并沒有得出統(tǒng)一的結(jié)論,并且在我國對此問題的研究還遠(yuǎn)未達到成熟階段。本文在相關(guān)理論的基礎(chǔ)上,指出審計為銀行提供了一個對于企業(yè)會計信息是否真實、可靠出具了一個獨立、客觀、公正的審計意見,為銀行直接提供了一個結(jié)果從而輔助銀行做出信貸決策。但是基于我國特殊的現(xiàn)實情況,銀行或許更加關(guān)注企業(yè)是否有較好的償債能力或者是否擁有足夠的資產(chǎn)作為抵押等條件,審計意見反而并不是銀行信貸者十分關(guān)注的因素。 本文采用了國內(nèi)針對審計意見與銀行貸款決策的主流研究方法即多元回歸分析方法,為了試圖解決多元回歸模型的內(nèi)生性等一系列問題,本文首次嘗試將PSM估計方法引用到關(guān)于審計意見的相關(guān)研究當(dāng)中作為一種探索性方法與多元回歸分析方法作為對比研究,旨在探討更加適用于本文研究內(nèi)容的研究方法。 本文實證研究結(jié)果表明： (1)在多元回歸方法下,除在新準(zhǔn)則樣本短期貸款續(xù)新變量下沒有通過顯著性檢驗外,其余情況下,審計意見對貸款續(xù)新的影響均通過了顯著性檢驗,并且呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。這說明,在沒有配對的全樣本情況下,非標(biāo)準(zhǔn)審計意見對銀行貸款續(xù)新有顯著的負(fù)面影響。 (2)在PSM估計方法下,我們發(fā)現(xiàn),在進行配對之前,審計意見類型對銀行貸款續(xù)新決策的平均激勵效果是顯著的,而配對之后結(jié)果反而不顯著。這說明多元回歸分析方法下,審計意見類型對銀行貸款決策的影響有可能被高估了。 (3)在兩種方法下得到的結(jié)論不一致的情況下,本文對PSM方法較多元分析法的優(yōu)缺點進行了探討。本文認(rèn)為,多元回歸分析方法存在著不可避免的變量內(nèi)生性等問題,理論上PSM方法通過挑選傾向得分值相近的樣本來將處理組與對照組進行配對,來達到處理組與對照組在某些特征變量上的同質(zhì)性,從而可以解決內(nèi)生性問題,具有更穩(wěn)健的因果關(guān)系推論功能。
[Abstract]:This paper reviews the domestic and foreign studies on the relationship between audit opinions and bank credit decisions, and finds that there is no unified conclusion of scholars both at home and abroad, and the research on this issue in our country is far from mature stage. On the basis of relevant theories, this paper points out that auditing provides banks with an independent, objective and impartial audit opinion on whether accounting information is true or not. It provides a direct result for banks to help them make credit decisions. However, due to the special reality of our country, the banks may pay more attention to whether the enterprises have good solvency or whether they have enough assets as collateral, but the audit opinion is not the factor that the bank credit people pay much attention to. In order to solve a series of problems such as endogeneity of multiple regression model, this paper adopts the main research method of audit opinion and bank loan decision in China, I. E. multiple regression analysis. For the first time, this paper attempts to apply the PSM estimation method to the relevant research on audit opinion as an exploratory method and a multivariate regression analysis method as a comparative study, in order to explore a more suitable research method for the content of this paper. The empirical results of this paper show that: (1) under the multivariate regression method, except for the new criterion sample short-term loan renewal variable, the significance test is not passed, the other cases, The impact of audit opinions on loan renewal has passed the significance test and is negatively correlated. This indicates that, in the absence of a full matched sample, non-standard audit opinions have a significant negative impact on the renewal of bank loans. (2) under the PSM estimation method, we found that, before matching, The type of audit opinion is significant to the average incentive effect of bank loan renewal decision, but the result is not significant after matching. This indicates that the impact of the type of audit opinion on bank loan decision may be overestimated under the method of multiple regression analysis. (3) in the case of inconsistent conclusions between the two methods, In this paper, the advantages and disadvantages of PSM multivariate analysis are discussed. In this paper, it is concluded that the multiple regression analysis method has some inevitable problems, such as variable endogenicity. In theory, PSM method pairs the treatment group with the control group by selecting samples with similar scores. In order to achieve the homogeneity of some characteristic variables between the treatment group and the control group, we can solve the endogenetic problem and have a more robust function of causal inference.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F239.4;F832.4;F224

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