本文選題：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)導(dǎo)向?qū)徲?jì) + 財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告舞弊預(yù)警��； 參考：《東北林業(yè)大學(xué)》2008年碩士論文

【摘要】： 隨著審計(jì)環(huán)境的日益復(fù)雜,傳統(tǒng)的審計(jì)方法在識別財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告舞弊方面逐漸暴露其缺點(diǎn),2007年1月1日起我國《中國注冊會計(jì)師審計(jì)準(zhǔn)則第1141號——財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表審計(jì)中對舞弊的考慮》的正式實(shí)施標(biāo)志著審計(jì)模式已由制度基礎(chǔ)審計(jì)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)楝F(xiàn)代風(fēng)險(xiǎn)導(dǎo)向?qū)徲?jì)。現(xiàn)代風(fēng)險(xiǎn)導(dǎo)向?qū)徲?jì)強(qiáng)調(diào)審計(jì)人員應(yīng)當(dāng)保持合理的職業(yè)懷疑態(tài)度,深入了解企業(yè)舞弊環(huán)境,把財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表重大錯(cuò)報(bào)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)作為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估的重心,以防范審計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),因此,現(xiàn)代風(fēng)險(xiǎn)導(dǎo)向?qū)徲?jì)下迫切需要提高注冊會計(jì)師對財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告舞弊的預(yù)測能力。建立財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告舞弊預(yù)警模型,可以提高注冊會計(jì)師預(yù)測被審計(jì)單位財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告舞弊的能力,可以為會計(jì)師事務(wù)所及注冊會計(jì)師識別上市公司舞弊提供理論參考,使其在源頭上排除不能勝任的高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)審計(jì)項(xiàng)目,并且為注冊會計(jì)師接受審計(jì)委托后制定下一步審計(jì)程序提供方向性指引。財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告舞弊預(yù)警模型的建立,還可以幫助證券監(jiān)督委員會等監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)分析上市公司的舞弊傾向,從而防患于未然。由此可見,研究建立現(xiàn)代風(fēng)險(xiǎn)導(dǎo)向?qū)徲?jì)下財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告舞弊預(yù)警模型,對于指導(dǎo)審計(jì)實(shí)務(wù)具有一定的理論意義和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文在歸納和分析國內(nèi)外相關(guān)理論和研究現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,首先采用規(guī)范研究的方法,從財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告舞弊現(xiàn)狀、舞弊手段、舞弊成因等方面進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)地分析,并在此基礎(chǔ)上指出建立財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告舞弊預(yù)警模型的必要性。其次運(yùn)用實(shí)證分析的方法,選取有代表性的上市公司作為財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告舞弊預(yù)警模型研究的樣本,從償債能力、盈利能力、經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流量、資產(chǎn)管理能力和資金變現(xiàn)能力和股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)、與關(guān)聯(lián)方關(guān)系密切程度、是否被特殊處理等方面,選取了20個(gè)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)和非財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo),并用顯著性分析和主成分分析法對其進(jìn)行篩選,最終確定了5個(gè)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)主成分和3個(gè)非財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)作為最終預(yù)警指標(biāo),利用Logistic回歸方法構(gòu)建了僅使用財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)的財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告舞弊預(yù)警模型和引入非財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)后的財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告舞弊預(yù)警模型,并對兩個(gè)模型判斷準(zhǔn)確率進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)和比較。最后對具體上市公司的實(shí)例進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),研究結(jié)果表明:引入股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)、與關(guān)聯(lián)方關(guān)系密切程度、是否被特殊處理等非財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)的財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告舞弊預(yù)警模型的預(yù)警效果較好,建立財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告舞弊預(yù)警機(jī)制勢在必行。
[Abstract]:With the increasing complexity of the audit environment, The traditional audit method has gradually exposed its shortcomings in identifying financial report fraud. From January 1, 2007, China's CPA auditing Standard No. 1141-consideration of Fraud in Financial statement Audit has been formally implemented. The audit mode has changed from system-based audit to modern risk-oriented audit. Modern risk-oriented audit emphasizes that auditors should maintain a reasonable attitude of professional scepticism, deeply understand the environment of corporate fraud, take the risk of material misstatement of financial statements as the focus of risk assessment, so as to guard against audit risks. Under the modern risk-oriented audit, there is an urgent need to improve the CPA's ability to predict financial reporting fraud. The establishment of an early warning model of financial reporting fraud can improve the ability of certified public accountants to predict financial reporting fraud in audited units, and can provide a theoretical reference for accounting firms and certified public accountants to identify fraud in listed companies. Make it eliminate the incompetent high-risk audit project at the source, and provide direction guidance for the CPA to formulate the next audit procedure after accepting the audit commission. The establishment of financial reporting fraud warning model can also help regulators such as the Securities Supervision Commission to analyze the fraud tendency of listed companies so as to prevent trouble in the early stages. Therefore, it is of theoretical and practical significance to establish the financial report fraud early warning model under modern risk-oriented audit. On the basis of summing up and analyzing the relevant theories and research status at home and abroad, this paper first uses the method of normative research to systematically analyze the current situation of fraud in financial reporting, the means of fraud, the causes of fraud, and so on. On this basis, it points out the necessity of establishing financial report fraud warning model. Secondly, using the method of empirical analysis, select representative listed companies as the sample of financial reporting fraud early warning model, from the solvency, profitability, operating cash flow, 20 financial indicators and non-financial indicators are selected from the aspects of asset management ability, capital realisation ability and equity structure, the degree of close relationship with related parties, whether or not they are specially treated, etc. It was screened by significance analysis and principal component analysis, and five principal components and three non-financial indexes were determined as the final early warning index. Using Logistic regression method, the financial reporting fraud warning model using only financial indicators and the financial report fraud warning model after introducing non-financial indicators are constructed, and the accuracy of the two models is tested and compared. Finally, an example of specific listed companies is tested. The results show that the early-warning model of financial reporting fraud, such as the introduction of equity structure, the close relationship with related parties and the non-financial indicators such as special treatment, has a good early warning effect. It is imperative to establish an early warning mechanism for financial reporting fraud.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北林業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2008
【分類號】：F239.4;F224

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本文編號：2023948