本文選題：房地產(chǎn) + 土地估值�。� 參考：《東華大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：近二十年來,我國沒有一個行業(yè)能像房地產(chǎn)一樣引發(fā)人民廣泛的關(guān)注和激烈的討論,這種情況的出現(xiàn),首先是因為這個行業(yè)在國民經(jīng)濟中的重要地位,它占國內(nèi)GDP的比重不斷上升,已成為我國國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的支柱;其次是這個行業(yè)的“事多”,投資過熱、庫存過高、土地拍賣價格創(chuàng)新高、政策調(diào)整等等,諸如此類的話題無一不引起人們的廣泛議論,同時也為房地產(chǎn)市場增加了更多不確定因素,房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險陡增。房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)作為房地產(chǎn)市場的主要參與者,它主要依靠房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)獲利,能否選擇合適的估值方法對土地進行估值直接影響到企業(yè)是否能拿到土地,以及項目開發(fā)的收益。在眾多房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目估值辦法中,假設(shè)開發(fā)法是房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)常用的方法。但利用假設(shè)開發(fā)法做投資分析時很難量化投資的靈活性和項目投資價值,容易導(dǎo)致測算結(jié)果的不準確,因此不能科學(xué)的給房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)提供依據(jù)。實物期權(quán)能夠根據(jù)不可預(yù)測的因素為決策采取不同策略,房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)對房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目的投資決策具有實物期權(quán)的特征,國內(nèi)外專家學(xué)者對于將實物期權(quán)應(yīng)用在房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)取得了一定成果,也根據(jù)經(jīng)典的理論模型建立了一些用于房產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目投資決策的實物期權(quán)模型。在房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目投資決策過程中引入實物期權(quán)的理論和方法,能最大限度地測量投資過程中的不可預(yù)測的因素,增加企業(yè)的投資機會,充分考慮投資風(fēng)險,提高企業(yè)在房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目投資中的成功率。對于國內(nèi)外專家學(xué)者提出的模型,如b-s模型,經(jīng)常是直接套用經(jīng)典的公式對房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目進行定價,對于模型的參數(shù),如預(yù)期現(xiàn)金流等,都認為是確定值。但是根據(jù)國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)市場的不確定性,這樣的模型具有很大的局限性,不能完全滿足房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)決策的需要。基于以上因素,本文在假設(shè)開發(fā)法模型和期權(quán)定價公式的基礎(chǔ)上,以國內(nèi)當(dāng)前環(huán)境下的房地產(chǎn)投資決策作為研究對象,針對房地產(chǎn)項目的不確定性,利用假設(shè)開發(fā)法建立項目的現(xiàn)金流模型,并采用實物期權(quán)的black-scholes模型和二項式模型處理應(yīng)對項目的不確定性。在本文最后一部分還以金華市湖海塘項目為例,運用假設(shè)開發(fā)法和實物期權(quán)法對其進行了投資決策分析,測算項目的土地價值,并與其實際開發(fā)情況相比較。案例分析表明了新的模型在較大不確定性的投資決策中更具有科學(xué)性,具有較大的理論和實踐價值。
[Abstract]:In the past two decades, no industry in our country has aroused the same widespread concern and intense discussion as real estate. This kind of situation arises first of all because of the important position of this industry in the national economy. Its share in domestic GDP has been rising and has become a pillar of our national economic development. Next, it is the "many things" in this industry, the overheating of investment, the excessive inventory, the high land auction prices, the adjustment of policies, and so on. Such topics have caused widespread debate and added more uncertainty to the real estate market, with real estate investment risk soaring. As the main participants in the real estate market, real estate enterprises mainly rely on the real estate development to make profits. Whether they can choose the appropriate valuation method to evaluate the land will directly affect whether the enterprise can get the land, as well as the income of the project development. In many real estate development project valuation methods, hypothetical development method is commonly used in real estate enterprises. However, it is difficult to quantify the flexibility of investment and the investment value of the project by using the hypothetical development method, which leads to the inaccuracy of the calculation results, so it can not provide scientific basis for the real estate enterprises. Real options can take different strategies according to unpredictable factors, and real estate enterprises' investment decisions on real estate development projects have the characteristics of real options. Experts and scholars at home and abroad have made some achievements in the application of real options in the field of real estate development, and have also established some real options models for investment decisions of real estate development projects according to the classical theoretical model. Introducing the theory and method of real option in the investment decision-making process of real estate development project can measure the unpredictable factors in the investment process to the maximum extent, increase the investment opportunity of the enterprise, and fully consider the investment risk. Improve the success rate of investment in real estate development projects. For the models put forward by experts and scholars at home and abroad, such as b-s model, the classical formula is often applied directly to price the real estate development project, and the parameters of the model, such as expected cash flow, are considered to be definite values. However, according to the uncertainty of the domestic real estate market, this model has great limitations and can not fully meet the needs of the real estate enterprises. Based on the above factors, this paper takes the real estate investment decision under the current domestic environment as the research object, aiming at the uncertainty of the real estate project, based on the hypothetical development method model and the option pricing formula. The cash flow model of the project is established by using the hypothetical development method, and the black-scholes model and binomial model of real options are used to deal with the uncertainty of the project. In the last part of this paper, taking Jinhua Lake seawall project as an example, the investment decision is analyzed by using hypothetical development method and real option method, and the land value of the project is calculated and compared with the actual development situation. The case study shows that the new model is more scientific in investment decision-making with greater uncertainty and has great theoretical and practical value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F299.233.4

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