【摘要】：土地利用／土地覆蓋變化(LUCC)旨在揭示人類生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)與地球環(huán)境系統(tǒng)之間的相互作用關(guān)系,其作用機(jī)理可以通過分析和模擬土地利用類型的變化來進(jìn)行解讀。土地利用變化是一個(gè)復(fù)雜的地理過程,它既包含自然演變過程,也包含人類發(fā)展過程,基于引發(fā)兩種過程的驅(qū)動(dòng)力,模擬土地利用變化格局,從而明確區(qū)域土地利用變化的成因、過程以及變化趨勢(shì),是目前國(guó)際上研究LUCC的重要手段。本文采用目前國(guó)際上使用較為廣泛的CLUE-S模型,以資源型城市榆林市的榆神府地區(qū)為研究區(qū),首先應(yīng)用趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)法、灰色GM(1,1)預(yù)測(cè)法以及線性回歸預(yù)測(cè)法對(duì)榆神府地區(qū)2000-2010年的土地利用需求量進(jìn)行擬合,并對(duì)應(yīng)各地類選取誤差最小的方法模擬2010-2020年的土地利用需求量,然后應(yīng)用Logistic二元回歸模型計(jì)算出研究區(qū)各地類與自然、經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)、資源等各方面驅(qū)動(dòng)因子之間的回歸方程,運(yùn)用ROC曲線檢驗(yàn)多尺度下的回歸精度,得出模擬效果最好的研究尺度,最后按照CLUE-S模型的輸入規(guī)則,將文件輸入模型,模擬出研究區(qū)2020年的土地利用空間格局。研究結(jié)果說明了該模型對(duì)于榆神府地區(qū)的土地利用空間格局模擬效果較好,該研究結(jié)果也可以為榆神府地區(qū)及類似資源開發(fā)地區(qū)的土地利用規(guī)劃決策提供更為科學(xué)的依據(jù)。論文從土地利用變化與驅(qū)動(dòng)因素作用過程入手,模擬土地利用變化的空間格局,從而探究土地利用變化的內(nèi)在機(jī)理,主要研究工作及結(jié)論如下：(1)對(duì)于模型中的土地需求模塊,使用趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)法、灰色GM(1,1)預(yù)測(cè)法以及線性回歸預(yù)測(cè)法對(duì)研究區(qū)的土地需求量進(jìn)行模擬和預(yù)測(cè),確定了2010-2020年的土地需求預(yù)測(cè)量,結(jié)果表明,對(duì)于研究區(qū)的土地需求量數(shù)據(jù),耕地、草地、城鄉(xiāng)居民建設(shè)用地、未利用土地使用線性回歸模型進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)效果更好,而水域使用灰色GM(1,1)預(yù)測(cè)模型,林地使用二次多項(xiàng)式進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)效果更好。(2)利用解譯后的土地利用圖,提取對(duì)土地利用變化有影響的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素,包括農(nóng)田、河流、水庫、道路、工礦區(qū)、植被、城鎮(zhèn)和村莊等因素,再結(jié)合DEM中的坡度、坡向以及社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)中的人口、GDP等因素,通過二元L ogistic回歸分析,得出各地類的ROC檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果較為理想,說明驅(qū)動(dòng)因素與地類之間的相關(guān)性較高,擬合效果較好。(3)本文運(yùn)用多尺度分析法計(jì)算研究區(qū)的土地利用模擬精度,結(jié)果表明,各尺度下ROC值均大于0.8,處于較高精度,說明驅(qū)動(dòng)因素的選取可以有效的模擬土地利用變化情況,并且對(duì)于榆神府研究區(qū),尺度在500*500以下均可獲得精度較高的回歸結(jié)果。(4)進(jìn)一步比照模擬結(jié)果與解譯圖,發(fā)現(xiàn)存在一定的位移偏差,從而明確了總增減變化量與總轉(zhuǎn)移變化量?jī)蓚�(gè)概念,從空間格局上明晰了土地利用變化的內(nèi)在機(jī)理,結(jié)果表明,CLUE-S模型能夠更好的消除由于解譯誤差引起的位移偏差,實(shí)現(xiàn)更為精確的模擬結(jié)果。(5)從模擬結(jié)果上看,耕地、草地、林地、水域、城鄉(xiāng)居民建設(shè)用地、未利用地等地類在模擬結(jié)果上的空間布局符合資源型城市發(fā)展特點(diǎn),同時(shí),也存在著一定的問題,對(duì)此,提出以下三點(diǎn)建議：一是大力推進(jìn)土地整治工作；二是科學(xué)開展土地開發(fā)研究；三是積極完善生態(tài)安全建設(shè)。
文內(nèi)圖片：
圖片說明：圖３－１輸神府地區(qū)不意圖逡逑該地區(qū)北部則隸屬毛烏素沙漠南緣的風(fēng)沙草灘區(qū)，，而經(jīng)過治理后的沙灘地植被遍逡逑布、郁郁蔥蔥；海子（湖泊）星羅棋布，其中中小地貌類型多樣，有風(fēng)沙灘地貌、沙逡逑
[Abstract]:Land-use/ land cover change (LUCC) is designed to reveal the interaction between the human production system and the Earth's environmental system, and its mechanism of action can be interpreted by analyzing and simulating the change of land-use types. The land-use change is a complex geographical process, which includes both the natural evolution process and the human development process, and based on the driving force of the two processes, the land-use change pattern is simulated, so that the cause, the process and the changing trend of the regional land-use change are clearly defined, It is an important means to study the LUCC at present. In this paper, a wide variety of CLUE-S models are used in this paper to study the land-use demand in the elm-Shenfu area from 2000 to 2010 by using the trend prediction method, the grey GM (1,1) prediction method and the linear regression prediction method, using the CLUE-S model which is widely used at present. and the regression equation between the various parts of the study area and the driving factors such as natural, economic, social, resource and the like is calculated by using the logistic binary regression model, According to the input rule of CLUE-S model, the land-use spatial pattern of the research area by 2020 is simulated by using the ROC curve to check the regression accuracy of the multi-scale. The results of the study show that the model can provide a more scientific basis for the land-use planning decision-making in the region of the Ulmus and the similar resources. This paper starts with the process of land use change and driving factors, and simulates the spatial pattern of land use change, so as to explore the internal mechanism of land use change, and the main research work and conclusion are as follows: (1) For the land demand module in the model, the trend prediction method is used, The grey GM (1,1) prediction method and the linear regression prediction method are used to simulate and forecast the land demand of the study area, and the land demand forecast quantity for 2010-2020 is determined. The results show that the land demand data, the cultivated land, the grassland, the urban and rural residents construction land for the study area, The prediction effect is better without using the linear regression model of the land, and the grey GM (1,1) prediction model is used in the water area, and the prediction effect of the forest land using the quadratic polynomial is better. (2) The driving factors, including farmland, river, reservoir, road, mining area, vegetation, town and village, are extracted by using the interpreted land-use map, and then combined with the slope, slope and the population in the social and economic data in the DEM, Based on the two-way logistic regression analysis, the ROC test results of all regions are ideal, and the correlation between the driving factors and the ground class is high, and the fitting effect is good. (3) The method of multi-scale analysis is used to calculate the accuracy of the land-use simulation in the study area. The results show that the ROC values of each scale are more than 0.8, and the results show that the selection of the driving factors can effectively simulate the land-use change. Regression results with higher accuracy can be obtained at the scale of 500 * 500. and (4) according to the simulation result and the interpretation map, a certain displacement deviation is found, so that the two concepts of the total increase/ decrease change amount and the total transfer change amount are defined, the intrinsic mechanism of the land use change is clearly defined from the spatial pattern, the result is that, The CLUE-S model can better eliminate the displacement deviation caused by the interpretation error and realize the more accurate simulation result. (5) From the simulation results, the spatial layout of cultivated land, grassland, forest land, water area, the construction land of urban and rural residents and unused land in the simulation results is in accordance with the development characteristics of resource-based cities. At the same time, there are some problems. In this regard, the following three suggestions are put forward: The first is to push forward the land regulation work; secondly, to carry out the land development research; and thirdly, to actively improve the ecological security construction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F301

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