【摘要】：基于行為經(jīng)濟學前景理論,本文運用河南養(yǎng)殖主體調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù)和二元Logistic模型,研究了生豬價格波動背景下養(yǎng)殖主體決策行為的影響因素。結(jié)果表明:1)養(yǎng)殖主體在內(nèi)部和外部因素的共同約束下進行"有限理性決策",在盈利前景和虧損前景下其決策行為的影響因素不同,具有非對稱特征;2)在盈利前景下,養(yǎng)豬專業(yè)化程度對養(yǎng)殖決策行為有負向影響,政策滿意度有正向影響;3)在虧損前景下,經(jīng)濟狀況、是否參加生豬養(yǎng)殖保險、獲取生豬價格信息難易程度對養(yǎng)殖決策行為有負向影響,風險偏好、政策滿意度有正向影響。平抑"豬周期",關(guān)鍵在于養(yǎng)殖主體在價格波動背景下決策行為的選擇,因此,提升養(yǎng)豬組織化程度、開發(fā)多元化生豬養(yǎng)殖保險產(chǎn)品、完善生豬交易信息化服務(wù)平臺、調(diào)整生豬產(chǎn)業(yè)政策體系,有助于提高養(yǎng)殖主體決策水平,促進生豬產(chǎn)業(yè)健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Based on the prospect theory of behavioral economics, this paper studied the influencing factors of the decision-making behavior of breeding agents under the background of hog price fluctuation by using the survey data of Henan breeding agents and the dual Logistic model. The results showed that: 1) under the constraints of internal and external factors, the main body of aquaculture made a "limited rational decision". Under the prospect of profit and loss, the influencing factors of decision-making behavior were different and had asymmetric characteristics. 2) under the prospect of profit, the degree of pig specialization has a negative effect on the decision-making behavior, and the policy satisfaction has a positive effect; 3) under the prospect of loss, the economic situation, whether or not to participate in pig breeding insurance, and the difficulty of obtaining the price information of live pig have a negative influence on the decision-making behavior of breeding, and risk preference and policy satisfaction have a positive effect. In order to stabilize the "pig cycle", the key lies in the selection of the decision-making behavior of the main body in the background of price fluctuation. Therefore, to promote the organization of pig raising, to develop diversified pig breeding insurance products, and to improve the information service platform for pig trading. Adjusting the policy system of pig industry is helpful to improve the decision-making level and promote the healthy development of pig industry.
【作者單位】： 華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學經(jīng)濟管理學院;蚌埠學院經(jīng)濟與管理學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金項目(71673103) 安徽省教育廳人文社會科學重點項目(SK2016A0584)~~
【分類號】：F323.7;F326.3

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