基于CA-Markov模型的廣漢市土地利用空間格局預(yù)測(cè)及優(yōu)化研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-25 07:00
【摘要】：土地是人類生活、社會(huì)生產(chǎn)的重要物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ),但隨著社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,土地資源供應(yīng)與需求之間的矛盾日益突出,土地資源逐漸成為制約城市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,人民生活水平提高的重要因素。因此,必須進(jìn)一步協(xié)調(diào)人地關(guān)系,優(yōu)化土地利用結(jié)構(gòu),保障社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。本文將四川省廣漢市作為研究區(qū),以廣漢市2003年、2009年、2014年遙感影像為數(shù)據(jù)源,采用土地利用程度指數(shù)、土地利用轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣等方法分析土地利用時(shí)空演變規(guī)律,討論了土地利用格局變化的影響因素。構(gòu)建CA-Markov模型模擬廣漢市2014年土地利用狀況,并對(duì)其模擬結(jié)果進(jìn)行數(shù)量和空間上的檢驗(yàn)。再以此模型,模擬廣漢市2020年基于耕地保護(hù)優(yōu)先、經(jīng)濟(jì)優(yōu)先及生態(tài)優(yōu)先三種情景下的土地利用格局,并對(duì)模擬后的格局進(jìn)行優(yōu)化,最后對(duì)廣漢市未來(lái)的土地利用提出建議。根據(jù)本次研究分析,得出以下結(jié)論:(1)在2003年-2014年,廣漢市的土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生了較大的變化。耕地大幅度減少,建設(shè)用地大幅度增加,而其他地類變化較為平緩。土地利用程度處于中上水平,土地利用強(qiáng)度較大,且逐年升高。2009-2014年廣漢市土地利用變化的強(qiáng)度要遠(yuǎn)大于2003-2009年。(2)廣漢市土地利用變化受到坡度、行政中心、交通、人口、政策等多種因素共同影響。廣漢市整體地勢(shì)平緩,耕地和建設(shè)用地適宜分布在坡度0-15°之間,15°以上適宜林地。通過(guò)建立緩沖區(qū)得出距離行政中心及交通干線越近,耕地和林地減少的速度越快,建設(shè)用地增加的速度越快的規(guī)律。(3)建立CA-Markov模型預(yù)測(cè)2014年土地利用狀況,并進(jìn)行精度檢驗(yàn),證明模型精度較高。基于IDRISI軟件平臺(tái),建立因子權(quán)重圖,制作土地利用適宜性圖集,得到2014年廣漢市土地利用預(yù)測(cè)圖,經(jīng)檢驗(yàn),各地類相對(duì)誤差都在15%以內(nèi),Kappa系數(shù)為0.78。(4)基于三種情景下對(duì)2020年土地利用格局進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),結(jié)果表明三種情景預(yù)測(cè)的土地利用格局都難以達(dá)到最優(yōu)的狀態(tài)。在三種情景下,廣漢市的建設(shè)用地在增加,而耕地、水域和其他土地都在減少,表明廣漢市經(jīng)濟(jì)仍處于較快發(fā)展期,城市仍然處于擴(kuò)張期。但在不同的情境下,土地利用格局又有所差異。(5)通過(guò)對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)后的三種土地利用格局進(jìn)行優(yōu)化,得到最優(yōu)的土地利用格局。以耕地保護(hù)優(yōu)先型的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果為基礎(chǔ),對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)優(yōu)先型中的中心城區(qū)的建設(shè)用地、生態(tài)保護(hù)優(yōu)先型中的林地進(jìn)行優(yōu)化,得到優(yōu)化后的土地利用格局。
[Abstract]:Land is an important material basis for human life and social production. However, with the development of social economy, the contradiction between the supply and demand of land resources is becoming increasingly prominent, and land resources gradually become a constraint to the development of urban economy. An important factor in the improvement of the people's living standards. Therefore, we must further coordinate the land relationship, optimize the land use structure, and ensure the sustainable development of social economy. Based on the remote sensing images of Guanghan city in 2003, 2009 and 2014, this paper uses the land use index and the land use transfer matrix to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of land use, taking Guanghan city as the research area, and taking the remote sensing image of Guanghan city in 2003, 2009 and 2014 as the data source. The influencing factors of land use pattern change were discussed. The CA-Markov model was constructed to simulate the land use in Guanghan city in 2014, and the results of the simulation were tested in quantity and space. Based on this model, this paper simulates the land use pattern of Guanghan city in 2020 based on the three scenarios of cultivated land protection priority, economic priority and ecological priority, and optimizes the simulated pattern, and finally puts forward some suggestions for the future land use of Guanghan city. According to the analysis of this study, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) from 2003 to 2014, the land use structure of Guanghan city has changed greatly. The cultivated land greatly reduced, the construction land increased substantially, but the other ground type change is more gentle. The degree of land use is in the middle and upper level, and the intensity of land use is increasing year by year. From 2009 to 2014, the intensity of land use change in Guanghan City is much greater than that in 2003-2009. (2) the slope of land use change in Guanghan City, the administrative center, Transportation, population, policy and other factors together. The whole topography of Guanghan City is smooth, the cultivated land and construction land are suitable for distribution between 0 擄and 15 擄, and above 15 擄are suitable for woodland. The closer the buffer zone is to the administrative center and the main traffic line, the faster the reduction of cultivated land and forest land is, and the faster the increase rate of construction land is. (3) the CA-Markov model is established to predict the land use status in 2014. The accuracy of the model is proved to be high. Based on the IDRISI software platform, the factor weight map is established, the land use suitability map is made, and the land use forecast map of Guanghan City in 2014 is obtained. After testing, the relative error of each category is within 15%. The Kappa coefficient is 0.78. (4) based on three scenarios, the land use pattern in 2020 is predicted. The results show that the land use pattern predicted by the three scenarios is difficult to reach the optimal state. Under the three scenarios, the construction land in Guanghan is increasing, while the cultivated land, water area and other land are decreasing, indicating that the economy of Guanghan is still in the period of rapid development and the city is still in the period of expansion. But in different situations, the land use pattern is different. (5) by optimizing the three land use patterns after prediction, the optimal land use pattern can be obtained. Based on the prediction results of the cultivated land conservation priority type, the construction land in the central urban area of the economic priority type and the forest land in the ecological protection priority type were optimized, and the optimized land use pattern was obtained.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：四川師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F301.2
[Abstract]:Land is an important material basis for human life and social production. However, with the development of social economy, the contradiction between the supply and demand of land resources is becoming increasingly prominent, and land resources gradually become a constraint to the development of urban economy. An important factor in the improvement of the people's living standards. Therefore, we must further coordinate the land relationship, optimize the land use structure, and ensure the sustainable development of social economy. Based on the remote sensing images of Guanghan city in 2003, 2009 and 2014, this paper uses the land use index and the land use transfer matrix to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of land use, taking Guanghan city as the research area, and taking the remote sensing image of Guanghan city in 2003, 2009 and 2014 as the data source. The influencing factors of land use pattern change were discussed. The CA-Markov model was constructed to simulate the land use in Guanghan city in 2014, and the results of the simulation were tested in quantity and space. Based on this model, this paper simulates the land use pattern of Guanghan city in 2020 based on the three scenarios of cultivated land protection priority, economic priority and ecological priority, and optimizes the simulated pattern, and finally puts forward some suggestions for the future land use of Guanghan city. According to the analysis of this study, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) from 2003 to 2014, the land use structure of Guanghan city has changed greatly. The cultivated land greatly reduced, the construction land increased substantially, but the other ground type change is more gentle. The degree of land use is in the middle and upper level, and the intensity of land use is increasing year by year. From 2009 to 2014, the intensity of land use change in Guanghan City is much greater than that in 2003-2009. (2) the slope of land use change in Guanghan City, the administrative center, Transportation, population, policy and other factors together. The whole topography of Guanghan City is smooth, the cultivated land and construction land are suitable for distribution between 0 擄and 15 擄, and above 15 擄are suitable for woodland. The closer the buffer zone is to the administrative center and the main traffic line, the faster the reduction of cultivated land and forest land is, and the faster the increase rate of construction land is. (3) the CA-Markov model is established to predict the land use status in 2014. The accuracy of the model is proved to be high. Based on the IDRISI software platform, the factor weight map is established, the land use suitability map is made, and the land use forecast map of Guanghan City in 2014 is obtained. After testing, the relative error of each category is within 15%. The Kappa coefficient is 0.78. (4) based on three scenarios, the land use pattern in 2020 is predicted. The results show that the land use pattern predicted by the three scenarios is difficult to reach the optimal state. Under the three scenarios, the construction land in Guanghan is increasing, while the cultivated land, water area and other land are decreasing, indicating that the economy of Guanghan is still in the period of rapid development and the city is still in the period of expansion. But in different situations, the land use pattern is different. (5) by optimizing the three land use patterns after prediction, the optimal land use pattern can be obtained. Based on the prediction results of the cultivated land conservation priority type, the construction land in the central urban area of the economic priority type and the forest land in the ecological protection priority type were optimized, and the optimized land use pattern was obtained.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：四川師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F301.2
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