發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-17 13:28

【摘要】：基于高分辨率遙感影像解譯得到新疆喀什市2002年與2013年兩期土地利用歷史數(shù)據(jù),通過(guò)對(duì)兩期影像進(jìn)行處理、分類、精度驗(yàn)證以及對(duì)CLUE-S模型和Markov模型進(jìn)行精度驗(yàn)證,利用CLUE-S模型和Markov模型相結(jié)合的方法對(duì)研究區(qū)喀什市未來(lái)土地利用變化進(jìn)行兩種不同情景的模擬預(yù)測(cè),系統(tǒng)分析了兩種不同情景下土地利用變化的時(shí)空特征。結(jié)果表明:CLUE-S模型和Markov模型的相互結(jié)合使用成功克服了單一模型的不足,能夠?qū)κ彩形磥?lái)土地利用情況進(jìn)行良好的模擬。因此,在設(shè)計(jì)的兩種情景模擬預(yù)案下,喀什市未來(lái)的建設(shè)用地均將持續(xù)增加,并以消耗大量的耕地資源為代價(jià),并且約束情景模型Ⅱ城鎮(zhèn)規(guī)劃節(jié)約集約用地和基本農(nóng)田保護(hù)預(yù)案是喀什市未來(lái)土地利用變化的推薦預(yù)案。
[Abstract]:Based on the interpretation of high-resolution remote sensing images, two periods of land use historical data were obtained from 2002 and 2013 in Kashi, Xinjiang. Through processing, classification, accuracy verification and accuracy verification of CLUE-S model and Markov model, two periods of images were processed, classified and verified. Two different scenarios of land use change in Kashi city were simulated and forecasted by using CLUE-S model and Markov model. The spatiotemporal characteristics of land use change in two different scenarios were analyzed systematically. The results show that the combination of CLUE-S model and Markov model successfully overcomes the shortage of single model and can simulate the future land use of Kashi city. Therefore, under the two scenarios designed, the future construction land in Kashi will continue to increase, at the cost of consuming a large amount of cultivated land resources. And the constraint scenario model 鈪，

本文編號(hào)：2337954