寧化縣農(nóng)業(yè)投入與農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出耦合發(fā)展研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-14 09:18
【摘要】：自古以來農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展都是我國(guó)民生的關(guān)注熱點(diǎn),農(nóng)業(yè)作為工業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)的基礎(chǔ),關(guān)系到我國(guó)社會(huì)主義和諧社會(huì)的發(fā)展。目前,我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展最重要的問題之一是農(nóng)業(yè)資源投入與產(chǎn)出效率的問題,因此研究如何提高農(nóng)業(yè)資源的利用效率以及投入與產(chǎn)出的耦合關(guān)系,盡可能使資源轉(zhuǎn)化為收益的效率最大化,是當(dāng)前中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展亟需探討和解決的問題之一。本文以福建省寧化縣為研究區(qū)域,通過建立農(nóng)業(yè)投入水平和農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出水平評(píng)價(jià)體系,分析寧化縣2001～2012年農(nóng)業(yè)投入水平和農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出水平的變化,探討影響農(nóng)業(yè)投入與產(chǎn)出發(fā)生變化的主要因素,并對(duì)2012年寧化縣16個(gè)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)的農(nóng)業(yè)投入與農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出水平進(jìn)行了對(duì)比分析；基于協(xié)調(diào)度模型,分析寧化縣2001～2012年農(nóng)業(yè)投入與農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出之間的協(xié)調(diào)狀況,以及2012年各鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)農(nóng)業(yè)投入與農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出協(xié)調(diào)性的空間差異。根據(jù)灰色系統(tǒng)理論,運(yùn)用GM(1,1)預(yù)測(cè)模型及其優(yōu)化模型對(duì)未來幾年寧化縣糧食作物和經(jīng)濟(jì)作物的產(chǎn)量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。并針對(duì)寧化縣農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展中存在的問題,提出了穩(wěn)定和發(fā)展農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的建議和措施。2001-2012年寧化縣農(nóng)業(yè)投入水平與農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出水平總體呈上升趨勢(shì),農(nóng)業(yè)投入水平從2001年的0.6713逐漸上升至2012年的0.9821,農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出水平從2001年的0.4653逐年上升至2012年的0.9889。在2001年、2007年和2012年3個(gè)年份中,寧化縣16個(gè)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)農(nóng)業(yè)投入和農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出水平差異變化趨勢(shì)基本保持一致；2012年,寧化縣16個(gè)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)農(nóng)業(yè)投入與產(chǎn)出水平差異較大,其中農(nóng)業(yè)投入水平以安遠(yuǎn)鄉(xiāng)(0.9273)為最高,治平鄉(xiāng)(0.2029)為最低；農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出水平以湖村鎮(zhèn)(0.8034)為最高,河龍鄉(xiāng)(0.2866)為最低。從2001年至2012年,寧化縣農(nóng)業(yè)投入和農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出綜合水平顯著提高,協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)良好,總體呈上升趨勢(shì)；從協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展度類型上看,從2001～2011年的農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出滯后型轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)?012年的農(nóng)業(yè)投入滯后型。在2001年、2007年和2012年3個(gè)年份中,寧化縣16個(gè)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)農(nóng)業(yè)投入與農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r變化不大；2001年和2007年2年的協(xié)調(diào)狀況基本一致；與2001年和2007年相比,2012年的綜合發(fā)展水平有一定的提高,并且協(xié)調(diào)度水平趨于相近,均在0.9～1.0之間。三年中各鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)的協(xié)調(diào)等級(jí)主要包括初級(jí)協(xié)調(diào)、中級(jí)協(xié)調(diào)、良好協(xié)調(diào)和優(yōu)質(zhì)協(xié)調(diào)四大類。2012年,寧化縣各鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)農(nóng)業(yè)協(xié)調(diào)度都較高,在0.9以上。但綜合發(fā)展水平和協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展度有很大差異,安遠(yuǎn)鄉(xiāng)得分最高,分別為0.8265和0.8956；治平鄉(xiāng)得分最低,分別為0.2535和0.4834,各鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)中大部分鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展度類型屬于初級(jí)協(xié)調(diào)類和勉強(qiáng)協(xié)調(diào)類,沒有優(yōu)質(zhì)協(xié)調(diào)類。通過GM(1,1)預(yù)測(cè)模型和新陳代謝GM(1,1)預(yù)測(cè)模型預(yù)測(cè)2013～2020年寧化縣糧食產(chǎn)量總體呈線性下降趨勢(shì),下降幅度為8.00%；經(jīng)濟(jì)作物總產(chǎn)量總體呈線性上升趨勢(shì),上升幅度較大,為22.23%。
[Abstract]:Since ancient times, agricultural development has been the focus of attention of people's livelihood in China. As the foundation of industry and service industry, agriculture is related to the development of harmonious socialist society in China. At present, one of the most important problems in agricultural development in China is the efficiency of input and output of agricultural resources, so how to improve the utilization efficiency of agricultural resources and the coupling relationship between input and output are studied. To maximize the efficiency of transforming resources into income is one of the problems that need to be discussed and solved in the current agricultural development in China. This paper takes Ninghua County, Fujian Province as the research area, through establishing the evaluation system of agricultural input level and agricultural output level, analyzes the change of agricultural input level and agricultural output level in Ninghua County from 2001 to 2012. The main factors influencing the change of agricultural input and output were discussed, and the level of agricultural input and output in 16 villages and towns in Ninghua County in 2012 were compared and analyzed. Based on the coordination degree model, this paper analyzes the coordination situation between agricultural input and agricultural output in Ninghua County from 2001 to 2012, and the spatial differences between agricultural input and agricultural output in different villages and towns in 2012. According to the grey system theory, the yield of grain crops and cash crops in Ninghua County in the next few years is predicted by using GM (1 ~ 1) prediction model and its optimization model. In view of the problems existing in the agricultural development of Ninghua County, the suggestions and measures for stabilizing and developing agricultural production are put forward. The agricultural input level and agricultural output level of Ninghua County in 2001-2012 are on the whole increasing. The level of agricultural input gradually increased from 0.6713 in 2001 to 0.9821 in 2012, and the level of agricultural output rose year by year from 0.4653 in 2001 to 0.9889 in 2012. In 2001, 2007 and 2012, the variation trend of agricultural input and agricultural output level in 16 villages and towns in Ninghua County was basically the same. In 2012, the agricultural input and output level of 16 villages and towns in Ninghua County were quite different. The agricultural input level was the highest in Anyuan Township (0.9273) and the lowest in Zhiping Township (0.2029). The agricultural output level was the highest in Hucun Town (0.8034) and the lowest in Helong Township (0.2866). From 2001 to 2012, the comprehensive level of agricultural input and agricultural output in Ninghua County increased significantly, the coordinated development situation was good, and the overall trend was on the rise. From the point of view of the degree of coordinated development, the lagging type of agricultural output changed from 2001 to 2011 to the lagging type of agricultural input in 2012. In 2001, 2007 and 2012, the coordinated development of agricultural input and output in 16 villages and towns in Ninghua County changed little, and the coordination status in 2001 and 2007 was basically the same. Compared with 2001 and 2007, the level of comprehensive development in 2012 increased to a certain extent, and the degree of coordination tended to be similar, ranging from 0.9 to 1.0. In three years, the coordination level of villages and towns mainly includes four categories: primary coordination, intermediate coordination, good coordination and high quality coordination. In 2012, the level of agricultural coordination in villages and towns in Ninghua County was higher than 0.9. But the comprehensive development level and the coordinated development degree have the very big difference, the Anyuan township score is the highest, is 0.8265 and 0.8956 respectively; The scores of leveling township were 0.2535 and 0.4834 respectively. Most of the township coordinated development degree types belonged to the primary coordination type and the barely coordinated type but there was no quality coordination class. The grain yield in Ninghua County from 2013 to 2020 was predicted by GM (1K1) model and metabolic GM (1K1) model. The grain yield in Ninghua County decreased linearly from 2013 to 2020, with a decrease of 8.00%. The total yield of cash crops showed a linear upward trend, which was 22.23%.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：福建師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F327
本文編號(hào)：2330770
[Abstract]:Since ancient times, agricultural development has been the focus of attention of people's livelihood in China. As the foundation of industry and service industry, agriculture is related to the development of harmonious socialist society in China. At present, one of the most important problems in agricultural development in China is the efficiency of input and output of agricultural resources, so how to improve the utilization efficiency of agricultural resources and the coupling relationship between input and output are studied. To maximize the efficiency of transforming resources into income is one of the problems that need to be discussed and solved in the current agricultural development in China. This paper takes Ninghua County, Fujian Province as the research area, through establishing the evaluation system of agricultural input level and agricultural output level, analyzes the change of agricultural input level and agricultural output level in Ninghua County from 2001 to 2012. The main factors influencing the change of agricultural input and output were discussed, and the level of agricultural input and output in 16 villages and towns in Ninghua County in 2012 were compared and analyzed. Based on the coordination degree model, this paper analyzes the coordination situation between agricultural input and agricultural output in Ninghua County from 2001 to 2012, and the spatial differences between agricultural input and agricultural output in different villages and towns in 2012. According to the grey system theory, the yield of grain crops and cash crops in Ninghua County in the next few years is predicted by using GM (1 ~ 1) prediction model and its optimization model. In view of the problems existing in the agricultural development of Ninghua County, the suggestions and measures for stabilizing and developing agricultural production are put forward. The agricultural input level and agricultural output level of Ninghua County in 2001-2012 are on the whole increasing. The level of agricultural input gradually increased from 0.6713 in 2001 to 0.9821 in 2012, and the level of agricultural output rose year by year from 0.4653 in 2001 to 0.9889 in 2012. In 2001, 2007 and 2012, the variation trend of agricultural input and agricultural output level in 16 villages and towns in Ninghua County was basically the same. In 2012, the agricultural input and output level of 16 villages and towns in Ninghua County were quite different. The agricultural input level was the highest in Anyuan Township (0.9273) and the lowest in Zhiping Township (0.2029). The agricultural output level was the highest in Hucun Town (0.8034) and the lowest in Helong Township (0.2866). From 2001 to 2012, the comprehensive level of agricultural input and agricultural output in Ninghua County increased significantly, the coordinated development situation was good, and the overall trend was on the rise. From the point of view of the degree of coordinated development, the lagging type of agricultural output changed from 2001 to 2011 to the lagging type of agricultural input in 2012. In 2001, 2007 and 2012, the coordinated development of agricultural input and output in 16 villages and towns in Ninghua County changed little, and the coordination status in 2001 and 2007 was basically the same. Compared with 2001 and 2007, the level of comprehensive development in 2012 increased to a certain extent, and the degree of coordination tended to be similar, ranging from 0.9 to 1.0. In three years, the coordination level of villages and towns mainly includes four categories: primary coordination, intermediate coordination, good coordination and high quality coordination. In 2012, the level of agricultural coordination in villages and towns in Ninghua County was higher than 0.9. But the comprehensive development level and the coordinated development degree have the very big difference, the Anyuan township score is the highest, is 0.8265 and 0.8956 respectively; The scores of leveling township were 0.2535 and 0.4834 respectively. Most of the township coordinated development degree types belonged to the primary coordination type and the barely coordinated type but there was no quality coordination class. The grain yield in Ninghua County from 2013 to 2020 was predicted by GM (1K1) model and metabolic GM (1K1) model. The grain yield in Ninghua County decreased linearly from 2013 to 2020, with a decrease of 8.00%. The total yield of cash crops showed a linear upward trend, which was 22.23%.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：福建師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F327
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