【摘要】：云南省作為傳統(tǒng)菜籽油主消費(fèi)區(qū)的消費(fèi)大省之一,菜籽油消費(fèi)量占比食用植物油80%左右,是全省第一大食用油源。然而云南省目前食用植物油自給率不足40%,菜籽油自給率僅45%左右,凸顯出全省食用油供給安全的嚴(yán)峻形勢(shì)。全省菜籽油的供給直接影響到食用油供給安全,關(guān)乎全省近4700萬人口的“油瓶子”安全。基于以上現(xiàn)實(shí)背景,本文首先試圖對(duì)云南省過去近十年油菜種植面積、單產(chǎn)、油菜籽產(chǎn)量及菜籽油供需狀況進(jìn)行分析和總結(jié),研究表明目前云南省菜籽油供需形勢(shì)處于緊張狀態(tài),菜籽油自給率僅為45%左右,菜籽油產(chǎn)不足需,供需缺口大,消費(fèi)量是供給量的2倍。其次本文對(duì)影響云南省菜籽油自給率的因素進(jìn)行了分析,研究發(fā)現(xiàn)造成菜籽油自給率低下的主要因素是:1.油菜籽總產(chǎn)量低,不能滿足消費(fèi)需求;2.人口總量增加及城鎮(zhèn)化速度加快;3.人們生活水平的提高和居民消費(fèi)觀念的改變。然后以平均發(fā)展速度為指標(biāo)用Excel工具對(duì)2014~2020年云南省菜籽油供給量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),應(yīng)用Logistic人口阻滯增長(zhǎng)模型對(duì)2014~2020年云南省人口進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),進(jìn)而對(duì)此階段的菜籽油消費(fèi)量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),從而測(cè)算出2014~2020年云南省菜籽油的自給率。測(cè)算結(jié)果表明,云南省未來幾年菜籽油自給率較當(dāng)前有所改善,2020年自給率可達(dá)60%左右。最后從六個(gè)方面提出了提升云南省菜籽油自給率的對(duì)策建議。本文的主要研究結(jié)論:2000~2013年云南省菜籽油自給率總體上是呈上升趨勢(shì),但增長(zhǎng)緩慢,菜籽油供給形勢(shì)不容樂觀,消費(fèi)量是供給量的2倍,自給率僅45%左右;對(duì)菜籽油自給率影響最大是總?cè)丝诘脑黾印⒊擎?zhèn)化速度的加快和居民消費(fèi)觀念的改變等因素;經(jīng)預(yù)測(cè)分析,2014~2020年云南省菜籽油自給率雖然較目前有所改善,但依舊不高,至2020年菜籽油自給率僅接近60%。
[Abstract]:As one of the major consuming provinces of traditional rapeseed oil, Yunnan province accounts for about 80% of the consumption of edible vegetable oil and is the largest edible oil source in the province. However, the self-sufficiency rate of edible vegetable oil in Yunnan Province is less than 40% and rapeseed oil self-sufficiency rate is only about 45% at present, which highlights the grim situation of edible oil supply security in Yunnan Province. The supply of rapeseed oil directly affects the safety of edible oil supply, and relates to the safety of oil bottles of nearly 47 million people in the province. Based on the above realistic background, this paper first attempts to analyze and summarize the rape planting area, yield per unit yield, rapeseed yield and supply and demand of rapeseed oil in Yunnan Province in the past ten years. The research shows that the supply and demand situation of rapeseed oil in Yunnan Province is in a tense state at present, the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil is only about 45%, the production of rapeseed oil is insufficient, the gap between supply and demand is large, and the consumption is twice as large as the supply quantity. Secondly, this paper analyzes the factors affecting the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil in Yunnan Province, and finds that the main factor that causes the low self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil is: 1. The total output of rapeseed is low and can not meet the consumption demand. The total population increase and the speed of urbanization accelerates 3. 3%. The improvement of people's living standard and the change of people's consumption concept. Then the average development rate is used to predict the supply of rapeseed oil in Yunnan Province from 2014 to 2020 with Excel tool, and the population of Yunnan Province is forecasted by using Logistic population block growth model, and then the consumption of rapeseed oil in this stage is forecasted. Therefore, the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil in Yunnan Province from 2014 to 2020 was calculated. The results show that the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil in Yunnan Province in the next few years is better than that at present, and the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil can reach about 60% in 2020. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions to improve the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil in Yunnan province are put forward from six aspects. The main conclusion of this paper is that the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil in Yunnan Province is on the whole rising from 2000 to 2013, but the growth is slow, the situation of rapeseed oil supply is not optimistic, the consumption is twice as much as the supply quantity, and the self-sufficiency rate is only about 45%. The greatest influence on the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil is the increase of the total population, the acceleration of urbanization and the change of residents' consumption concept, etc. The self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil in Yunnan Province is still not high, although the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil in Yunnan Province has improved from 2014-2020. By 2020, the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed oil is only close to 60%.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F326.12

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本文編號(hào)：2245547