發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-09-08 16:47

【摘要】：為了達(dá)到合理使用土地的目的,使有限的土地資源能夠進(jìn)行優(yōu)化配置,繼而可以滿(mǎn)足人類(lèi)不斷增長(zhǎng)的需要,以及地區(qū)的社會(huì)持續(xù)發(fā)展,使其達(dá)到供需平衡的狀態(tài),因此對(duì)其近況的深入探討和評(píng)價(jià)是十分重要的。本文以沈陽(yáng)市為研究對(duì)象,采用生態(tài)足跡的方法,定量分析沈陽(yáng)市目前土地資源利用的發(fā)展?fàn)顟B(tài),對(duì)沈陽(yáng)市的生態(tài)足跡進(jìn)行研究,并利用GM(1,1)模型預(yù)測(cè)之后6年時(shí)間內(nèi)沈陽(yáng)市土地生態(tài)足跡的走勢(shì),同時(shí)運(yùn)用目前土地生態(tài)管理學(xué)的內(nèi)容和模型提出相應(yīng)的建議。通過(guò)研究,得到如下結(jié)果:(1)在2014年,沈陽(yáng)市的人均生態(tài)足跡數(shù)值達(dá)到1.54公頃。而該地區(qū)人均生態(tài)承載力為0.51公頃�？鄢�12%的生物多樣性保護(hù),沈陽(yáng)市生態(tài)赤字為1.09公頃,表明在2014年沈陽(yáng)市土地發(fā)展情況不是很樂(lè)觀。(2)2005-2014年,沈陽(yáng)市人均生態(tài)足跡整體呈上升趨勢(shì),說(shuō)明在這期間,沈陽(yáng)市對(duì)生態(tài)生產(chǎn)性土地的需求有所增加。另外,通過(guò)計(jì)算,在2005-2014年之間沈陽(yáng)市萬(wàn)元GDP的生態(tài)足跡水平總體上有減小趨向,說(shuō)明沈陽(yáng)市在這十年的過(guò)程中萬(wàn)元GDP的生態(tài)足跡的需求減小,這也說(shuō)明其生態(tài)資源的利用效率在上升。(3)根據(jù)確定的預(yù)測(cè)函數(shù),可推斷出沈陽(yáng)市的人均生態(tài)足跡將持續(xù)增加,在2020年將上升到2.26公頃。其生態(tài)足跡的不斷增加,意味著人們對(duì)物質(zhì)生產(chǎn)性用地的需求量也在隨著時(shí)間的變化不斷增加。由于人類(lèi)活動(dòng)的強(qiáng)度不斷提高,且不斷挑戰(zhàn)著其區(qū)域生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的承受能力,會(huì)給該地區(qū)帶來(lái)更為嚴(yán)重的問(wèn)題。造成這種情況的主要原因是人口過(guò)于密集、消費(fèi)觀念的轉(zhuǎn)變、對(duì)土地資源的過(guò)度開(kāi)發(fā)利用以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不合理。對(duì)于沈陽(yáng)市而言,所提出的建議要從四個(gè)方面進(jìn)行考慮:調(diào)整人口分布,提高人口素質(zhì);轉(zhuǎn)換生產(chǎn)消費(fèi)方法,增強(qiáng)持續(xù)的發(fā)展意識(shí);保護(hù)土地資源,提高土地利用率;發(fā)揮東北老工業(yè)基地的優(yōu)勢(shì),提高資源和能源的使用效率。
[Abstract]:In order to achieve the purpose of rational use of land, to optimize the allocation of limited land resources, and then to meet the growing needs of human beings, and to achieve a balance between supply and demand for sustainable social development in the region, Therefore, it is very important to discuss and evaluate the recent situation. This paper takes Shenyang as the research object, adopts the ecological footprint method, quantitatively analyzes the development state of the present land resources utilization in Shenyang, and studies the ecological footprint of Shenyang. The trend of land ecological footprint in Shenyang during the next 6 years was predicted by using GM (1 / 1) model, and the corresponding suggestions were put forward by using the content and model of land ecological management at present. The results are as follows: (1) in 2014, the ecological footprint per capita in Shenyang reached 1.54 ha. The per capita ecological carrying capacity of this area is 0.51 ha. After deducting 12 percent of biodiversity conservation, Shenyang's ecological deficit is 1.09 hectares, which indicates that the land development situation in Shenyang in 2014 is not very optimistic. (2) from 2005 to 2014, the overall per capita ecological footprint of Shenyang showed an upward trend, indicating that during this period, Shenyang's demand for ecologically productive land has increased. In addition, from 2005 to 2014, the ecological footprint level of 10 thousand yuan GDP in Shenyang decreased, which indicated that the demand of ecological footprint of 10 thousand yuan GDP in Shenyang decreased during this decade. This also indicates that the utilization efficiency of ecological resources is increasing. (3) according to the predicted function, it can be inferred that the ecological footprint per capita will continue to increase in Shenyang, and will rise to 2.26 hectares in 2020. The increasing ecological footprint means that the demand for material and productive land is increasing with time. Because of the increasing intensity of human activities and the challenge to the bearing capacity of its regional ecosystem, it will bring more serious problems to the region. The main causes of this situation are the overpopulation, the change of consumption concept, the over-exploitation and utilization of land resources and the unreasonable industrial structure. As far as Shenyang is concerned, the suggestions should be considered from four aspects: adjusting population distribution, improving population quality, changing production and consumption methods, strengthening sustainable development consciousness, protecting land resources and improving land utilization ratio. Give play to the advantage of northeast old industrial base, improve the use efficiency of resource and energy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：沈陽(yáng)師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F301.2

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