【摘要】：克拉瑪依作為新中國(guó)第一個(gè)因油而生、因油而興的都市,其油氣開發(fā)與油氣化工業(yè)在我國(guó)有著舉足輕重的位置。伴隨著克拉瑪依市人口的增長(zhǎng),經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,城市化進(jìn)程加快,合理的利用土地,預(yù)測(cè)土地利用變化對(duì)社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展很有必要。本文懫用Markov模型和CLUE-S模型相結(jié)合的方法,對(duì)克拉瑪依市2025年土地利用變化進(jìn)行情景模擬。運(yùn)用克拉瑪依市2010年、2015年土地利用年末變更數(shù)據(jù)作為基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù),選取驅(qū)動(dòng)因子,模擬得到2015年土地利用模擬圖,與2015年土地利用年末變更數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行對(duì)比,通過精度驗(yàn)證,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)模擬精度較高。模擬結(jié)果說明Markov模型和CLUE-S模型相結(jié)合的方法用于中小區(qū)域土地利用變化模擬效果較好,可用于模擬2025年克拉瑪依市土地利用變化情況。本文主要研究?jī)?nèi)容與結(jié)論如下:(1)對(duì)2010年與2015年土地年末變更數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行重分類,分為六類,根據(jù)研究區(qū)域特征選取驅(qū)動(dòng)因子,結(jié)合使用SPSS與Arc GIS軟件,以ROC為評(píng)判標(biāo)準(zhǔn),分析地類之間的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素之間的關(guān)聯(lián)性。(2)采用柵格像元大小為100m×100m的2010年土地利用現(xiàn)狀圖模擬2015年土地利用現(xiàn)狀,采用logistics回歸分析模型,選用驅(qū)動(dòng)因子,運(yùn)用Markov與CLUE-S模型模擬得到2015年數(shù)據(jù),并與2015年實(shí)際現(xiàn)狀數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行對(duì)比,采用Kappa系數(shù)驗(yàn)證,精度達(dá)到0.816,模擬預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果較好。(3)用2015年土地利用年末變更庫數(shù)據(jù)模擬2025年克拉瑪依市土地利用情況,通過設(shè)置參數(shù),得到三種不同狀態(tài)的轉(zhuǎn)變:(1)按照現(xiàn)狀自然增長(zhǎng)情景下的模擬,建設(shè)用地持續(xù)增加,耕地面積逐漸減少,林地、草地面積急劇下降,導(dǎo)致生態(tài)環(huán)境質(zhì)量下降,石油項(xiàng)目用過的建設(shè)用地拋荒嚴(yán)重,不利于克拉瑪依市長(zhǎng)久可持續(xù)發(fā)展。(2)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式下,建設(shè)用地面積增加比例較大,其余地類均減少,林草地面積較少量較大,不利于克拉瑪依市生態(tài)環(huán)境的保護(hù)。(3)生態(tài)環(huán)境保護(hù)情景模式下,保障經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的同時(shí)又要保護(hù)生態(tài)環(huán)境,建設(shè)用地面積增長(zhǎng)較為緩慢,占用耕地面積減少,林地、草地面積減少幅度降低。三種不同的情景設(shè)置,土地利用格局具有顯著的空間差異。
[Abstract]:Karamay is the first city born and flourished by oil in New China. Its oil and gas development and oil / gas chemical industry play an important role in our country. With the increase of population, the development of economy, the acceleration of urbanization, the rational use of land and the prediction of land use change are necessary for social and economic development. In this paper, the method of combining Markov model with CLUE-S model is used to simulate the land use change in Karamay in 2025. Using the land use end-year change data of Karamay in 2010 and 2015 as the basic data, selecting the driving factor, simulating the land use simulation map of 2015, comparing with the land use end-year change data of 2015, through the accuracy verification, The results show that the simulation accuracy is high. The simulation results show that the combination of Markov model and CLUE-S model can be used to simulate land use change in small and medium-sized areas and can be used to simulate land use change in Karamay in 2025. The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the land change data of 2010 and 2015 are reclassified and divided into six categories. According to the regional characteristics of the study, the driving factors are selected, combined with SPSS and Arc GIS software, and ROC is taken as the criterion. This paper analyzes the relationship between the driving factors among ground classes. (2) the 2010 land use status map with grid pixel size of 100m 脳 100m is used to simulate the land use status in 2015, and the logistics regression model is used to select the driving factor. The 2015 data are simulated by Markov and CLUE-S model, and compared with the actual data of 2015. The Kappa coefficient is used to verify the results. The precision reaches 0.816, and the result of simulation and prediction is good. (3) the land use situation of Karamay City in 2025 is simulated with the data of land use change database at the end of 2015, and the parameters are set up. Three different changes were obtained: (1) according to the simulation of the current natural growth scenario, the construction land continued to increase, the area of cultivated land gradually decreased, the area of woodland and grassland decreased sharply, which led to the decline of ecological environment quality. The abandoned construction land used in petroleum projects is not conducive to the sustainable development of Karamay for a long time. (2) under the economic development model, the area of construction land increases by a large proportion, the other land types decrease, and the area of forest and grassland is relatively small. It is not conducive to the protection of ecological environment in Karamay City. (3) under the ecological environment protection scenario, the economic development should be protected at the same time, the area of construction land should be increased slowly, the area of cultivated land occupied will be reduced, and the forest land should be protected. The range of grassland area decreased. Three different scenarios, land use patterns have significant spatial differences.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：新疆大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F301.2

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