【摘要】：我國正處于城鎮(zhèn)化快速發(fā)展時(shí)期,伴隨著社會、經(jīng)濟(jì)、人口不斷變化,城市建設(shè)用地需求量也在不斷增加。資源型城市作為利用特殊資源條件而發(fā)展起來的城市,目前正面臨或即將面臨資源枯竭的困境,如何走出困境?城市轉(zhuǎn)型則是其城市可持續(xù)發(fā)展的必經(jīng)之路。由于資源型城鎮(zhèn)普遍具有用地條件特殊、城市用地難度大等典型特征,如何解決新能源利用與替代、城市功能置換、城市設(shè)施改造與更新,以及城市空間、城市文化、城市生態(tài)的修復(fù)等問題,這對資源型城市建設(shè)用地結(jié)構(gòu)、合理利用開發(fā)都提出了更高、更嚴(yán)的要求。攀枝花作為西部典型的資源型城市,無論是其城市發(fā)展與轉(zhuǎn)型的歷程,還是未來即將面臨的可持續(xù)發(fā)展困境,都將面臨城市建設(shè)用地如何合理適度開發(fā),如何改善城市居住環(huán)境等均具有較強(qiáng)的代表性的問題。本文以攀枝花市為例,在明確了城市建設(shè)用地定義及內(nèi)涵基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合相關(guān)歷史文獻(xiàn)與實(shí)地考察,綜合分析攀枝花城市建設(shè)用地現(xiàn)狀特征,利用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度法提取了影響攀枝花城市建設(shè)用地的主要因子,并使用GM(1,1)模型預(yù)測了攀枝花2020、2030年城市建設(shè)用地需求量�；陬A(yù)測結(jié)果,討論了2020、2030年城市建設(shè)用地規(guī)劃布局結(jié)構(gòu),同時(shí)提出用地管理的相關(guān)建議。本文主要結(jié)論有:(1)分析了攀枝花城市建設(shè)用地現(xiàn)狀,發(fā)現(xiàn)城市建設(shè)用地矛盾主要表現(xiàn)在以下方面:(1)城市空間結(jié)構(gòu)布局分散,城市各功能分區(qū)之間距離過遠(yuǎn),城市中心不突出,城市功能不能得到充分體現(xiàn);(2)工業(yè)用地與居住用地混雜、交叉,造成城市在用地布局、居住環(huán)境、設(shè)施配套等方面的困難;(3)城市建設(shè)用地空間拓展不足,供需矛盾較為顯著;(4)工業(yè)用地比重偏大,是導(dǎo)致城市環(huán)境問題更趨嚴(yán)重,以及是城市建設(shè)用地緊張的局面加劇的主要因素。(2)采用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度法分析了對攀枝花城市建設(shè)用地需求量相關(guān)的12個(gè)影響因素,發(fā)現(xiàn)人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)因素與攀枝花市城市建設(shè)用地關(guān)聯(lián)度較高,其中固定資產(chǎn)投資額、城市常住人口以及國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)三項(xiàng)與攀枝花市區(qū)建設(shè)用地需求量關(guān)聯(lián)性最高。(3)基于固定資產(chǎn)投資額、城市常住人口以及國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值,以GM(1,1)模型預(yù)測攀枝花市城市建設(shè)需求量的綜合權(quán)重,得出攀枝花市2020年城市建設(shè)用地量為96.83平方公里,2030年城市建設(shè)用地量為117.52平方公里。(4)攀枝花未來城市發(fā)展趨勢為南向發(fā)展,局部向東、西兩側(cè),并可總體概括為:“南擴(kuò)北限,東西限控”;建議對未來城市用地管理做到如下調(diào)整,如合理挖掘現(xiàn)有土地潛力、促進(jìn)城市建設(shè)用地結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整以及構(gòu)建合理的土地管理政策機(jī)制。
[Abstract]:China is in the period of rapid development of urbanization, with the social, economic and population changes, the demand for urban construction land is also increasing. Resource-based city, as a city developed with special resource conditions, is now facing or is about to face the plight of resource depletion. How to get out of the dilemma? Urban transformation is the only way to the sustainable development of the city. Because of the typical characteristics of resource-based towns, such as special conditions of land use and difficulty of urban land use, how to solve the problems of new energy utilization and substitution, urban function replacement, urban facilities reconstruction and renewal, urban space, urban culture, etc. The restoration of urban ecology has put forward higher and stricter requirements for the construction land structure and rational utilization and development of resource-based cities. Panzhihua is a typical resource-based city in the west of China. Whether it is the course of urban development and transformation, or the dilemma of sustainable development in the future, Panzhihua will be faced with how to develop the urban construction land reasonably and moderately. How to improve the urban living environment has strong representativeness. Taking Panzhihua City as an example, based on the definition and connotation of urban construction land, combined with relevant historical documents and field investigation, this paper comprehensively analyzes the characteristics of the present situation of construction land in Panzhihua city. The main factors affecting the construction land use in Panzhihua city were extracted by using the grey correlation degree method, and the demand for construction land in Panzhihua 2020 and 2030 was predicted by using GM (1 / 1) model. Based on the prediction results, this paper discusses the layout structure of urban construction land planning in 2020 and 2030, and puts forward some suggestions on land use management. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the present situation of urban construction land in Panzhihua is analyzed, and it is found that the contradiction of urban construction land is mainly manifested in the following aspects: (1) the layout of urban spatial structure is scattered, the distance between the functional districts of the city is too long, and the urban center is not prominent. Urban function can not be fully reflected; (2) industrial land and residential land mixed, cross, resulting in urban land layout, living environment, facilities and other difficulties; (3) urban construction land space expansion, The contradiction between supply and demand is obvious. (4) the large proportion of industrial land leads to more serious urban environmental problems. It is also the main factor to aggravate the tense situation of urban construction land. (2) the paper analyzes 12 factors related to the demand for construction land in Panzhihua city by using the grey correlation degree method, and finds out the population. The correlation between economic factors and urban construction land in Panzhihua is high, among which fixed assets investment, urban resident population and gross domestic product (GDP) have the highest correlation with the demand for construction land in Panzhihua urban area. (3) based on the fixed assets investment, Based on the GM (1 ~ 1) model, the comprehensive weight of the urban construction demand in Panzhihua city is forecasted by the permanent resident population and the gross domestic product (GDP) of Panzhihua city. It is concluded that the amount of land used for urban construction in Panzhihua is 96.83 square kilometers in 2020 and 117.52 square kilometers in 2030. (4) the future urban development trend of Panzhihua is southward, partly eastward and westward, and can be summed up as: "extending the limit from south to north. It is suggested that the future urban land use management should be adjusted as follows, such as tapping the existing land potential rationally, promoting the adjustment of urban construction land structure and constructing a reasonable land management policy mechanism.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：成都理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F301.2

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