【摘要】：主產(chǎn)區(qū)糧食的生產(chǎn)與消費預(yù)測對國家糧食安全的戰(zhàn)略部署意義重大。已有文獻在設(shè)計中長期預(yù)測模型中易出現(xiàn)忽視計量方法假設(shè)前提、檢驗過程及地區(qū)修正等問題,因而本文采用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,并在該類模型中創(chuàng)新性地添加動態(tài)料肉比、流動人口等修正因子,在對四川省未來糧食生產(chǎn)和消費趨勢變化進行建模及檢驗的基礎(chǔ)上,針對不同情景進行了模擬仿真。研究結(jié)果表明,未來四川省糧食產(chǎn)需缺口呈逐年擴大的趨勢,而采取諸如減少糧食產(chǎn)后折損率和增強農(nóng)業(yè)科技進步等措施雖能減緩糧食消費壓力,但短期內(nèi)在總量上仍舊不能改變糧食無法自足的現(xiàn)狀,因此還需采取改變種植品種結(jié)構(gòu)以應(yīng)對未來糧食需求變化,正確引導(dǎo)膳食結(jié)構(gòu)以及全面提升居民營養(yǎng)水準(zhǔn),來保障四川順利實施糧食安全戰(zhàn)略。
[Abstract]:The prediction of grain production and consumption in main producing areas is of great significance to the strategic deployment of national food security. In the design of medium and long term prediction models, the existing literatures tend to ignore the assumptions of metrological methods, the testing process and the region correction. Therefore, the system dynamics model is adopted in this paper, and the dynamic feed / meat ratio is creatively added to this kind of model. On the basis of modeling and testing the trend of grain production and consumption in Sichuan province, the modified factors, such as floating population, are simulated and simulated in different scenarios. The results show that the gap of grain production and demand in Sichuan Province will be increasing year by year in the future, and that measures such as reducing the rate of postpartum grain losses and enhancing the progress of agricultural science and technology can alleviate the pressure on grain consumption. However, in the short term, it is still unable to change the situation of food self-sufficiency in the short term. Therefore, it is necessary to change the structure of planting varieties to cope with future changes in food demand, to correctly guide the dietary structure and to raise the nutritional standard of the residents in an all-round way. To ensure the smooth implementation of Sichuan food security strategy.
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本文編號：2207464