授權植物品種綜合質量與價值評估研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-25 11:33
【摘要】：植物新品種是農業(yè)生產的核心要素,品種權是未來農業(yè)發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略性資源,加速新品種育種創(chuàng)新和轉化應用是提升我國農業(yè)國際核心競爭力、保障現代農業(yè)持續(xù)健康發(fā)展和國家糧食安全的根本出路。隨著我國植物新品種保護事業(yè)的不斷發(fā)展,調動了全社會育種創(chuàng)新的積極性,加速了新品種的培育,植物新品種權申請、授權量大幅增長。截至到2014年12月底,累計受理品種權申請達13221件,授權4808件,近七年來年申請量每年以7.26%的速度飛速增長。據UPOV統(tǒng)計,2004年以來,我國品種權年申請量一直位居UPOV成員第四,2010年躍居第二位,僅次于美國。從品種權申請量上看,我國可以稱得上“品種權大國”,然而從品種權質量上看我國并非“品種權強國”,因為在申請的品種權中,大多品種都是創(chuàng)新性低的商業(yè)修飾品種以及急功近利型的短線品種,原創(chuàng)性的主控品種和防御型戰(zhàn)略型的原創(chuàng)品種少,品種權競爭力較弱,質量令人擔憂。另外,長期以來,我國基本形成了以科教單位為新品種選育主體的格局�？平虇挝浑m然有突出的育種科研優(yōu)勢,但其科技成果自主開發(fā)和生產經營能力較弱;另一方面,我國大多數種業(yè)企業(yè)雖擁有健全的生產銷售體系以及推廣和經營品種優(yōu)勢,但其科研育種實力相對薄弱。這種研究與推廣實施機構的分離是導致我國品種權轉化利用率低的根本原因。因此,建立健全種業(yè)科企合作機制成為提高品種權轉化利用率的關鍵,而合理的品種權定價機制是實現品種權順利轉化實施的基礎。基于此,本論文借鑒現有無形資產價值評估模型以及質量評估方法,結合植物新品種權自身的特點,以統(tǒng)計學、計量學和經濟學為基礎,構建授權植物品種基于邏輯回歸的綜合質量模型和基于收益還原法的價值評估模型。首先,界定了授權植物品種的質量以及價值相關的概念,其次,利用均衡價值理論深入研究了品種權的價值形成機理;然后,從技術、市場和法律三方面出發(fā),構建了授權植物品種綜合質量指標體系,并建立了授權植物品種質量指數模型;接著,選用收益還原法估值模型,利用品種權數據資料,估算收益還原法各評估參數,動態(tài)測算授權植物品種價值,并進行案例分析;最后得出本文的主要研究結論以及需要進一步研究和探討的問題。本論文研究結論主要有以下四個方面:第一,界定了授權植物品種的質量和價值的概念及兩者之間的關系。本研究詳細論述了授權植物品種的質量以及價值的概念界定問題,授權植物品種質量是授權植物品種對于授權植物品種使用者利用授權植物品種特性形成競爭力的重要程度,授權植物品種價值是指授權植物品種在整個品種權保護期內由于特征特性的改良而為企業(yè)或者個人帶來的超額收益,或節(jié)約的成本,包括品種權的價值和植物新品種本身的價值,并且認為授權植物品種質量是其價值的重要決定因素,授權植物品種價值在一定程度上能夠反映其質量,兩者是兩個不同層面的概念,不能籠統(tǒng)的一概而論,更不能等同。第二,剖析了基于均衡價值論的品種權價值評估區(qū)間。本研究利用均衡價值論,根據植物新品種權價值的特殊性和復雜性,從供給和需求的角度分析植物新品種權價值區(qū)間評估模型。對于供給方而言,確定其價值區(qū)間的下限是供給方價值評估的關鍵問題;對于需求方而言,確定其價值區(qū)間的上限是需求方價值評估的關鍵問題。當植物新品種權的供給方與需求方各自確定的價值區(qū)間進行復合時,確定雙方可以同時接受的可能價格區(qū)間,然后通過雙方交易者的談判,最終形成一個合理的交易價格,這個價格就是市場機制下確定的植物新品種權的價值。第三,構建了授權雜交水稻綜合質量指數。本研究利用線性加權綜合法構建了授權雜交水稻質量綜合指數,該指數將權利地域分布、抗稻瘟病和累計推廣面積三個指標反映的不同質量信息綜合為一體,不受授權年份的約束,不僅可以橫向或縱向地比較授權雜交水稻之間的質量差異,還可以判斷授權雜交水稻質量水平在系統(tǒng)中所處的位置,是一個操作性強、運用范圍廣、評價有效性高的綜合指數。第四,設計了基于收益還原法的授權雜交水稻價值評估模型。本研究通過分析收益還原法的原理,利用授權雜交水稻數據,估算收益還原法的主要評估參數,建立了授權雜交水稻的價值評估模型。本研究利用威布爾生存分布函數估算出授權雜交水稻品種的平均壽命為10.013年,高斯模型估算出單個授權雜交水稻剩余有效壽命,例如兩優(yōu)培九的剩余有效壽命為9.485年;接著,通過對WACC和CAPM進行優(yōu)化與發(fā)展,構建了改進型折現率估算模型,得出2013年的品種權折現率為5.3%;最后,結合植物新品種權的特點,利用投資回報率的原理,估算出中國品種權貢獻率為4.51%,遠遠低于發(fā)達國家的平均水平15%。
[Abstract]:New plant varieties are the core elements of agricultural production and variety rights are the strategic resources for future agricultural development. Accelerating the innovation and transformation of new plant varieties is the fundamental way to enhance the international core competitiveness of China's agriculture and ensure the sustainable and healthy development of modern agriculture and national food security. By the end of December 2014, the cumulative number of applications for variety rights had reached 13221, and 4808 were authorized. In the past seven years, the annual number of applications has increased rapidly by 7.26% per year. China ranks fourth in the annual application volume of variety rights, ranking second only to the United States in 2010, and ranks second in the annual application volume of variety rights. In addition, for a long time, China has basically formed the pattern of taking scientific and educational units as the main body of new variety breeding. On the other hand, although most of the seed enterprises in China have sound production and marketing system, as well as advantages in popularization and management of varieties, their scientific research and breeding strength is relatively weak. The separation of research and popularization agencies is the fundamental reason for the low utilization rate of variety rights in China. Therefore, the establishment and improvement of seed industry cooperation mechanism between science and enterprise is the key to improve the utilization rate of variety right conversion, and a reasonable pricing mechanism of variety right is the basis for the smooth implementation of variety right conversion. Based on statistics, econometrics and economics, a comprehensive quality model of authorized plant varieties based on logistic regression and a value evaluation model based on income reduction method are constructed. Secondly, from three aspects of technology, market and law, the comprehensive quality index system of authorized plant varieties is constructed, and the quality index model of authorized plant varieties is established. Then, the income reduction method is used to estimate the evaluation parameters of the income reduction method, and the value of authorized plant varieties is dynamically calculated. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: Firstly, the concept of quality and value of authorized plant varieties and the relationship between them are defined. The quality and price of authorized plant varieties are discussed in detail. Conceptual definition of value, quality of authorized plant varieties is the importance of authorized plant varieties for the users of authorized plant varieties to use the characteristics of authorized plant varieties to form competitiveness. Excess income, or cost savings, including the value of variety rights and the value of new plant varieties themselves, and that the quality of authorized plant varieties is an important determinant of their value, authorized plant variety value to a certain extent can reflect its quality, both are two different levels of concepts, can not be generalized, let alone not be generalized. Secondly, the evaluation interval of new plant variety rights is analyzed based on equilibrium axiology. According to the particularity and complexity of the value of new plant variety rights, the evaluation model of new plant variety rights is analyzed from the angle of supply and demand. The key problem of supplier value evaluation is to determine the upper limit of the value interval for the demander. When the supplier and the demander of the new plant variety right compound their respective value intervals, the possible price interval that can be accepted by both sides is determined, and then the two sides negotiate with each other. Third, the comprehensive quality index of authorized hybrid rice was constructed. In this study, the comprehensive quality index of authorized hybrid rice was constructed by using the linear weighted synthesis method. The index will distribute the rights in different regions, resist rice blast and burden. Considering the different quality information reflected by the three indicators of extension area, it is not restricted by the authorized years. It can not only compare the quality differences between authorized hybrid rice horizontally or vertically, but also judge the position of the authorized hybrid rice quality level in the system. It is a highly operational, widely used and effective evaluation. Fourthly, an authorized hybrid rice value evaluation model based on income reduction method is designed. By analyzing the principle of income reduction method and using authorized hybrid rice data, the main evaluation parameters of income reduction method are estimated, and a model of authorized hybrid rice value evaluation is established. Distribution function estimates the average life of authorized hybrid rice varieties to be 10.013 years, Gauss model estimates the remaining effective life of a single authorized hybrid rice, such as Liangyoupeijiu residual effective life of 9.485 years; then, through the optimization and development of WACC and CAPM, an improved discount rate estimation model is constructed, and the variety of 2013 is obtained. The discount rate is 5.3%. Finally, according to the characteristics of new plant variety rights and the principle of return on investment, the contribution rate of China's variety rights is estimated to be 4.51%, which is far below the average level of developed countries by 15%.
【學位授予單位】：中國農業(yè)科學院
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F323.5
，
本文編號：2202756
[Abstract]:New plant varieties are the core elements of agricultural production and variety rights are the strategic resources for future agricultural development. Accelerating the innovation and transformation of new plant varieties is the fundamental way to enhance the international core competitiveness of China's agriculture and ensure the sustainable and healthy development of modern agriculture and national food security. By the end of December 2014, the cumulative number of applications for variety rights had reached 13221, and 4808 were authorized. In the past seven years, the annual number of applications has increased rapidly by 7.26% per year. China ranks fourth in the annual application volume of variety rights, ranking second only to the United States in 2010, and ranks second in the annual application volume of variety rights. In addition, for a long time, China has basically formed the pattern of taking scientific and educational units as the main body of new variety breeding. On the other hand, although most of the seed enterprises in China have sound production and marketing system, as well as advantages in popularization and management of varieties, their scientific research and breeding strength is relatively weak. The separation of research and popularization agencies is the fundamental reason for the low utilization rate of variety rights in China. Therefore, the establishment and improvement of seed industry cooperation mechanism between science and enterprise is the key to improve the utilization rate of variety right conversion, and a reasonable pricing mechanism of variety right is the basis for the smooth implementation of variety right conversion. Based on statistics, econometrics and economics, a comprehensive quality model of authorized plant varieties based on logistic regression and a value evaluation model based on income reduction method are constructed. Secondly, from three aspects of technology, market and law, the comprehensive quality index system of authorized plant varieties is constructed, and the quality index model of authorized plant varieties is established. Then, the income reduction method is used to estimate the evaluation parameters of the income reduction method, and the value of authorized plant varieties is dynamically calculated. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: Firstly, the concept of quality and value of authorized plant varieties and the relationship between them are defined. The quality and price of authorized plant varieties are discussed in detail. Conceptual definition of value, quality of authorized plant varieties is the importance of authorized plant varieties for the users of authorized plant varieties to use the characteristics of authorized plant varieties to form competitiveness. Excess income, or cost savings, including the value of variety rights and the value of new plant varieties themselves, and that the quality of authorized plant varieties is an important determinant of their value, authorized plant variety value to a certain extent can reflect its quality, both are two different levels of concepts, can not be generalized, let alone not be generalized. Secondly, the evaluation interval of new plant variety rights is analyzed based on equilibrium axiology. According to the particularity and complexity of the value of new plant variety rights, the evaluation model of new plant variety rights is analyzed from the angle of supply and demand. The key problem of supplier value evaluation is to determine the upper limit of the value interval for the demander. When the supplier and the demander of the new plant variety right compound their respective value intervals, the possible price interval that can be accepted by both sides is determined, and then the two sides negotiate with each other. Third, the comprehensive quality index of authorized hybrid rice was constructed. In this study, the comprehensive quality index of authorized hybrid rice was constructed by using the linear weighted synthesis method. The index will distribute the rights in different regions, resist rice blast and burden. Considering the different quality information reflected by the three indicators of extension area, it is not restricted by the authorized years. It can not only compare the quality differences between authorized hybrid rice horizontally or vertically, but also judge the position of the authorized hybrid rice quality level in the system. It is a highly operational, widely used and effective evaluation. Fourthly, an authorized hybrid rice value evaluation model based on income reduction method is designed. By analyzing the principle of income reduction method and using authorized hybrid rice data, the main evaluation parameters of income reduction method are estimated, and a model of authorized hybrid rice value evaluation is established. Distribution function estimates the average life of authorized hybrid rice varieties to be 10.013 years, Gauss model estimates the remaining effective life of a single authorized hybrid rice, such as Liangyoupeijiu residual effective life of 9.485 years; then, through the optimization and development of WACC and CAPM, an improved discount rate estimation model is constructed, and the variety of 2013 is obtained. The discount rate is 5.3%. Finally, according to the characteristics of new plant variety rights and the principle of return on investment, the contribution rate of China's variety rights is estimated to be 4.51%, which is far below the average level of developed countries by 15%.
【學位授予單位】：中國農業(yè)科學院
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F323.5
，
本文編號：2202756
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