【摘要】：農(nóng)業(yè)乃是促進我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)性產(chǎn)業(yè),因其先天的弱勢性,要使其快速發(fā)展較為困難,因此,將農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)同證券市場相結(jié)合,創(chuàng)設(shè)農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司、實現(xiàn)農(nóng)業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)化發(fā)展,乃不二之選。農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司主要是針對農(nóng)業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)化結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、市場化經(jīng)營管理方面進行規(guī)劃與實踐,不僅有利于提升我國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量,增加國際競爭力,實現(xiàn)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)收,而且能夠進一步推動我國農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的發(fā)展進程。毫無疑問,作為市場主體的一員,農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司的發(fā)展勢必會受到市場經(jīng)濟波動的影響,目前國內(nèi)外基于宏觀經(jīng)濟角度考察農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司企業(yè)成長的相關(guān)研究較為缺乏,尤其是在農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司成長能力評估方面,多集中在公司治理、資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量、多元化經(jīng)營等方面。農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司的成長能力對公司的發(fā)展和投資價值起著很重要的作用,而成長能力不止受到企業(yè)規(guī)模、盈利能力等企業(yè)內(nèi)部因素的影響,還會受到外部經(jīng)濟環(huán)境的影響。相應(yīng)地,根據(jù)一定時期內(nèi)公司業(yè)績基點詳細描繪出的成長能力也可作為公司決策與股東投資的主要依據(jù),對于證券市場監(jiān)管、國家宏觀經(jīng)濟發(fā)展具有重要意義。本文研究是基于我國宏觀經(jīng)濟因素對農(nóng)業(yè)企業(yè)的影響,以2009—2013年的中國農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)為研究樣本,通過經(jīng)濟增長、政府財政支出、市場景氣指數(shù)、實際利率水平等宏觀經(jīng)濟因素構(gòu)建指標,運用Pearson相關(guān)性檢驗方法及多元線性回歸模型,詳細分析了各類宏觀經(jīng)濟要素對于農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司的不同影響,總結(jié)歸納出對農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司具有重要影響力的宏觀經(jīng)濟要素指標,進而提出對宏觀經(jīng)濟因素的考慮在農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司成長能力評估中的建議,具有一定的理論與現(xiàn)實意義。實證結(jié)果表明,CPI和貸款基準利率兩項指標對于農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司成長能力的影響較小,究其原因,主要是因為農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司的設(shè)立與發(fā)展主要得益于國家政策的傾斜與扶持,因而這兩者的變動對其資本結(jié)構(gòu)的影響不大。宏觀經(jīng)濟景氣指數(shù)和商品零售價格指數(shù)的解釋性要比CPI和貸款基準利率的解釋強度高,尤其是宏觀經(jīng)濟景氣指數(shù),在模型中有著顯著作用,即農(nóng)業(yè)上市公司成長過程中要對宏觀經(jīng)濟走向尤為關(guān)注,而美元兌換人民幣平均匯率也對其成長能力有積極的影響。
[Abstract]:Agriculture is the basic industry to promote the economic development of our country. Because of its inherent weakness, it is difficult to make it develop rapidly. Therefore, it is difficult to combine agricultural industry with the securities market, to create agricultural listed companies and to realize the industrialization development of agriculture. It is the only choice. Agricultural listed companies mainly aim at the readjustment of agricultural industrialization structure and the planning and practice of market-oriented management, which is not only conducive to improving the quality of agricultural products in China, increasing international competitiveness, and realizing the income generation of agricultural products. And can further promote our agricultural industry modernization of the development process. There is no doubt that as a member of the market, the development of agricultural listed companies is bound to be affected by market economic fluctuations. At present, there is a lack of relevant research on the growth of agricultural listed companies at home and abroad based on the macroeconomic perspective. Especially in the agricultural listed companies growth capacity evaluation, mainly focused on corporate governance, asset quality, diversification and so on. The growth ability of agricultural listed companies plays an important role in the development and investment value of the company, and the growth ability is not only affected by the internal factors such as enterprise size and profitability, but also by the external economic environment. Accordingly, the growth ability described in detail on the basis of company performance in a certain period can also be used as the main basis for corporate decision-making and shareholders' investment, which is of great significance to the supervision of the securities market and the development of the state's macro-economy. This study is based on the impact of macroeconomic factors on agricultural enterprises, taking the relevant data of Chinese agricultural listed companies from 2009-2013 as a sample, through economic growth, government financial expenditure, market boom index. Based on the Pearson correlation test method and the multiple linear regression model, this paper analyzes in detail the different effects of various macroeconomic factors on agricultural listed companies, such as the real interest rate level and other macroeconomic factors. In this paper, the author sums up the indexes of macroeconomic factors which have important influence on agricultural listed companies, and then puts forward the suggestions of considering macroeconomic factors in the evaluation of agricultural listed companies' growth ability, which has certain theoretical and practical significance. The empirical results show that CPI and benchmark interest rate have little effect on the growth ability of agricultural listed companies. The main reason is that the establishment and development of agricultural listed companies mainly benefit from the national policies. As a result, these two changes to its capital structure has little impact. The explanation of macroeconomic boom index and commodity retail price index is higher than that of CPI and loan benchmark interest rate. In particular, macroeconomic boom index plays a significant role in the model. That is to say, agricultural listed companies should pay more attention to the trend of macro-economy in their growth process, and the average exchange rate of US dollar to RMB also has a positive effect on their growth ability.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F324

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