【摘要】：作為商品糧供應基地及全國十三個糧食主產(chǎn)區(qū)之一,吉林省的農(nóng)業(yè)機械化不斷提高,現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)迅猛發(fā)展,糧食產(chǎn)能也隨之逐漸增長。然而,在全國糧食政策的指導下及供需平衡的作用下,糧食產(chǎn)能并非越多越好。糧食產(chǎn)能過少,可能會引起由溫飽問題而造成的恐慌;糧食產(chǎn)能過高,可能會由糧食降價而引起的谷賤傷民的情況發(fā)生。因此,建立合理的糧食產(chǎn)能預警系統(tǒng)及其運行機制,對于保障糧食的供求平衡具有十分重要的作用。同時,也為國家對于糧食的宏觀調(diào)控及政策安排提供了可靠依據(jù)。本文主要內(nèi)容包括七部分:第一部分為導論部分,主要是對糧食產(chǎn)能預警系統(tǒng)問題國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀進行介紹,并闡述文章的立題依據(jù)、研究內(nèi)容、研究方法、技術路線及研究創(chuàng)新點;第二部分是概念界定與理論基礎,主要對糧食產(chǎn)能及糧食產(chǎn)能預警系統(tǒng)的相關概念進行界定,并主要對蛛網(wǎng)理論、梯度理論和供需均衡理論等相關理論進行解釋和說明,為全文設定研究對象和做出了研究范圍;第三部分對吉林省糧食產(chǎn)能預警系統(tǒng)建設現(xiàn)狀進行分析,主要是對糧食產(chǎn)能市場預警、糧食產(chǎn)能制度預警、糧食產(chǎn)能物流預警及關聯(lián)產(chǎn)業(yè)預警進行分析。第四部分提出了吉林省糧食產(chǎn)能預警系統(tǒng)目前存在的問題,為后面行文做基礎鋪墊;第五部分則是通過構建合理有效的糧食產(chǎn)能預警系統(tǒng)和機制對當前吉林省糧食產(chǎn)能預警系統(tǒng)行實證研究,主要構建糧食產(chǎn)能市場預警系統(tǒng)、糧食產(chǎn)能制度預警系統(tǒng)、糧食產(chǎn)能物流預警系統(tǒng)及關聯(lián)產(chǎn)業(yè)預警系統(tǒng),同時構建使四個預警系統(tǒng)合理運作的運行機制。第六部分提出相關對策建議,確保糧食產(chǎn)能預警系統(tǒng)高效、有序地運行。第七部分為結論,對文章進行總結。通過本文研究,主要得出了以下結論:第一,市場要素是糧食產(chǎn)能預警系統(tǒng)的基礎;政策和制度是建立預警系統(tǒng)的風向標;物流要素預警系統(tǒng)的重要保障;關聯(lián)產(chǎn)業(yè)是預警系統(tǒng)的關鍵因素。第二、吉林省糧食產(chǎn)能預警系統(tǒng)存在很多問題,即糧食交易市場預警信息發(fā)展滯后;地方政策的預警能量傳輸效率低;低效率糧食存儲抑制了糧食產(chǎn)能預警;糧食產(chǎn)業(yè)低關聯(lián)阻礙了糧食產(chǎn)能預警;種子研發(fā)的預警功能發(fā)揮不足等。第三、要想充分發(fā)揮四個要素的預警功能,要大力發(fā)展糧食期貨,提升糧食產(chǎn)能預警功能;其次,要完善訂單模式糧食生產(chǎn),加速糧食生產(chǎn)合作社發(fā)展;同時,政府要健全法律制度,擴大預警影響;并且要完善交通運輸基礎建設,發(fā)展物流新業(yè)態(tài);最后,要提高糧食科技研發(fā)功能,加速糧食關聯(lián)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:As a commodity grain supply base and one of the 13 main grain producing areas in China, agricultural mechanization in Jilin Province has been continuously improved, modern agriculture has developed rapidly, and grain production capacity has gradually increased. However, under the guidance of national grain policy and balance of supply and demand, grain production capacity is not as much as possible. Too little food production may cause panic caused by the problem of food and clothing. Therefore, the establishment of a reasonable early warning system for grain production capacity and its operational mechanism plays an important role in ensuring the balance of grain supply and demand. At the same time, it also provides reliable basis for national macro-control and policy arrangement for grain. The main contents of this paper include seven parts: the first part is the introduction part, mainly introduces the domestic and foreign research status of grain production capacity early warning system, and expounds the basis of the article, research content, research methods, The second part is the concept definition and the theoretical basis, mainly defines the grain production capacity and the grain production capacity early warning system related concept, and mainly to the cobweb theory, The gradient theory and supply-demand equilibrium theory are explained and explained to set the research object and scope for the full text. The third part analyzes the current situation of the construction of grain productivity early warning system in Jilin Province. It mainly analyzes the market early warning of grain production capacity, the early warning of grain production capacity system, the early warning of grain production capacity logistics and the early warning of related industries. The fourth part puts forward the existing problems of the grain production capacity early warning system in Jilin Province, which lays the foundation for the future work. The fifth part is an empirical study on the current grain productivity early warning system of Jilin Province through the construction of a reasonable and effective early warning system and mechanism of grain production capacity, mainly to build a market early warning system for grain production capacity and an early warning system for grain production capacity system. The logistics early warning system of grain production capacity and the early warning system of related industries are constructed, and the operation mechanism of the four warning systems is constructed. The sixth part puts forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions to ensure the efficient and orderly operation of the early warning system of grain production capacity. The seventh part is the conclusion, carries on the summary to the article. The main conclusions are as follows: first, market factor is the basis of grain production capacity early warning system, policy and system is the wind vane of establishing early warning system, the important guarantee of logistics element early warning system; The related industry is the key factor of the early warning system. Second, there are many problems in the early warning system of grain production capacity in Jilin Province, that is, the development of early warning information in the grain trading market is lagging behind, the efficiency of early warning energy transmission in local policies is low, and the low efficiency grain storage inhibits the early warning of grain production capacity. The low correlation of grain industry hinders the early warning of grain production capacity; the early warning function of seed R & D is insufficient. Third, if we want to give full play to the early warning function of the four elements, we should vigorously develop grain futures and enhance the early warning function of grain production capacity; secondly, we should improve the order pattern of grain production and accelerate the development of grain production cooperatives; at the same time, The government should perfect the legal system, enlarge the influence of early warning, perfect the transportation infrastructure and develop the new logistics mode. Finally, it should improve the research and development function of grain science and technology and accelerate the development of grain related industries.
【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F326.11

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