【摘要】：糧食是民生之本,糧食安全問題不僅是社會問題更是政治問題。糧食價格作為百價之基,長期以來為社會各界廣泛關注。隨著我國糧食市場的發(fā)展以及開放程度的逐步提高,影響糧食價格波動的因素逐漸趨于多元化和復雜化,糧價的頻繁波動給糧食生產(chǎn)者和消費者造成了重大的影響。玉米作為我國重要的糧食品種,在我國糧食安全中占據(jù)重要地位,對玉米價格波動特征和波動影響因素的全面深入的研究有助于進一步了解我國玉米價格波動的規(guī)律,以期為穩(wěn)定我國玉米市場提供決策依據(jù),進而促進我國玉米市場的健康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展,為我國其他糧食品種的調控策略提供參考。本文從我國玉米供給和需求現(xiàn)狀著手,系統(tǒng)分析了我國玉米生產(chǎn)、消費、貿易以及庫存等方面的具體狀況,并以直觀的圖表方式反映了改革開放以來我國玉米變化發(fā)展狀況;接著采用H-P濾波分解法對1990年-2015年我國玉米價格的時間序列數(shù)據(jù)進行趨勢分離,在成分分解和周期化分的基礎上對玉米價格波動進行了趨勢特征和周期特征分析;并進一步在局部均衡理論分析框架的基礎上構建由面積方程、單產(chǎn)方程、飼用玉米消費方程等七個行為方程、兩個定義方程和一個平衡方程組成的我國玉米市場局部均衡模型,并通過對影響價格波動的主要外生變量進行情景模擬,實證探究1990年-2013年影響我國玉米價格波動的主要影響因素。研究結果表明:在波動特征上,我國玉米價格波動存在平穩(wěn)增長的長期趨勢,整體上呈現(xiàn)非對稱性和顯著的周期性,且在不同的時期我國玉米價格波動特征存在較大差異,2002年以前價格波動幅度較大,其后波動幅度降低,直至2007年在國際因素的影響下波動幅度出現(xiàn)小幅上漲,但漲幅有限。在價格波動的影響因素上,人均國內生產(chǎn)總值以及城鎮(zhèn)化率的上升是2009年-2013年影響我國玉米價格波動的主要影響因素,且人均國內生產(chǎn)總值對玉米價格波動的影響更大:國際玉米價格對我國玉米市場價格影響相對有限;臨時收儲政策調動了農(nóng)民的生產(chǎn)積極性,促進了玉米生產(chǎn)和價格的穩(wěn)定,使玉米價格波動在國際糧價劇烈波動大背景下仍然保持著相對穩(wěn)定,但同時也造成我國玉米庫存大量積壓,國內外玉米價格倒掛�；谝陨涎芯拷Y論,本文從提高玉米生產(chǎn)效率、穩(wěn)定玉米市場、完善玉米價格形成機制、統(tǒng)籌國內外市場等角度提出了政策建議。
[Abstract]:Food is the root of people's livelihood, food security is not only a social problem but also a political issue. Grain price as the basis of 100-price, has long been widely concerned by the community. With the development of China's grain market and the gradual improvement of the opening degree, the factors affecting the fluctuation of grain prices tend to be diversified and complicated, and the frequent fluctuations of grain prices have a great impact on grain producers and consumers. Maize, as an important grain variety in China, plays an important role in China's food security. A thorough study on the characteristics of corn price fluctuation and its influencing factors is helpful to further understand the regularity of corn price fluctuation in China. In order to provide the decision basis for stabilizing the corn market in our country, and then promote the healthy and stable development of the corn market in our country, and provide the reference for the regulation and control strategy of other grain varieties in our country. Based on the current situation of corn supply and demand in China, this paper systematically analyzes the specific situation of corn production, consumption, trade and stock in China, and reflects the change and development of maize in China in the form of intuitionistic chart since the reform and opening up. Then the time series data of maize price in China from 1990 to 2015 were separated by H-P filter decomposition method, and the trend characteristics and periodic characteristics of corn price fluctuation were analyzed on the basis of component decomposition and periodicity. On the basis of the analysis frame of local equilibrium theory, a local equilibrium model of corn market in China is constructed, which consists of seven behavioral equations, including area equation, yield equation, forage corn consumption equation, two definition equations and one equilibrium equation. Through the scenario simulation of the main exogenous variables which affect the price fluctuation, this paper empirically explores the main factors that affect the price fluctuation of maize in China from 1990 to 2013. The results show that there is a long-term trend of stable growth of corn price fluctuation in China, and the whole maize price fluctuates with asymmetry and significant periodicity. The price fluctuation of maize in China varied greatly in different periods. Before 2002, the price fluctuation range was large, then the fluctuation range decreased, until 2007, under the influence of international factors, the fluctuation range increased slightly, but the increase was limited. Among the influencing factors of price fluctuation, the increase of per capita GDP and urbanization rate is the main factor that affects the price fluctuation of maize in China from 2009 to 2013. Moreover, the per capita GDP has a greater impact on the fluctuation of corn price: the international corn price has relatively limited influence on the corn market price in China; the temporary reserve policy has mobilized the farmers' enthusiasm for production and promoted the stability of maize production and price. The fluctuation of corn price is still relatively stable under the background of severe fluctuation of international grain price, but at the same time, it also causes a large backlog of corn stocks in our country, and domestic and foreign corn prices are hanging upside down. Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions from the aspects of improving the maize production efficiency, stabilizing the corn market, perfecting the mechanism of corn price formation and coordinating the domestic and foreign markets.
【學位授予單位】：華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F323.7

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