【摘要】：糧食是民生之本,糧食安全問(wèn)題不僅是社會(huì)問(wèn)題更是政治問(wèn)題。糧食價(jià)格作為百價(jià)之基,長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)為社會(huì)各界廣泛關(guān)注。隨著我國(guó)糧食市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展以及開(kāi)放程度的逐步提高,影響糧食價(jià)格波動(dòng)的因素逐漸趨于多元化和復(fù)雜化,糧價(jià)的頻繁波動(dòng)給糧食生產(chǎn)者和消費(fèi)者造成了重大的影響。玉米作為我國(guó)重要的糧食品種,在我國(guó)糧食安全中占據(jù)重要地位,對(duì)玉米價(jià)格波動(dòng)特征和波動(dòng)影響因素的全面深入的研究有助于進(jìn)一步了解我國(guó)玉米價(jià)格波動(dòng)的規(guī)律,以期為穩(wěn)定我國(guó)玉米市場(chǎng)提供決策依據(jù),進(jìn)而促進(jìn)我國(guó)玉米市場(chǎng)的健康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展,為我國(guó)其他糧食品種的調(diào)控策略提供參考。本文從我國(guó)玉米供給和需求現(xiàn)狀著手,系統(tǒng)分析了我國(guó)玉米生產(chǎn)、消費(fèi)、貿(mào)易以及庫(kù)存等方面的具體狀況,并以直觀的圖表方式反映了改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)我國(guó)玉米變化發(fā)展?fàn)顩r;接著采用H-P濾波分解法對(duì)1990年-2015年我國(guó)玉米價(jià)格的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行趨勢(shì)分離,在成分分解和周期化分的基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)玉米價(jià)格波動(dòng)進(jìn)行了趨勢(shì)特征和周期特征分析;并進(jìn)一步在局部均衡理論分析框架的基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建由面積方程、單產(chǎn)方程、飼用玉米消費(fèi)方程等七個(gè)行為方程、兩個(gè)定義方程和一個(gè)平衡方程組成的我國(guó)玉米市場(chǎng)局部均衡模型,并通過(guò)對(duì)影響價(jià)格波動(dòng)的主要外生變量進(jìn)行情景模擬,實(shí)證探究1990年-2013年影響我國(guó)玉米價(jià)格波動(dòng)的主要影響因素。研究結(jié)果表明:在波動(dòng)特征上,我國(guó)玉米價(jià)格波動(dòng)存在平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)的長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì),整體上呈現(xiàn)非對(duì)稱性和顯著的周期性,且在不同的時(shí)期我國(guó)玉米價(jià)格波動(dòng)特征存在較大差異,2002年以前價(jià)格波動(dòng)幅度較大,其后波動(dòng)幅度降低,直至2007年在國(guó)際因素的影響下波動(dòng)幅度出現(xiàn)小幅上漲,但漲幅有限。在價(jià)格波動(dòng)的影響因素上,人均國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值以及城鎮(zhèn)化率的上升是2009年-2013年影響我國(guó)玉米價(jià)格波動(dòng)的主要影響因素,且人均國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值對(duì)玉米價(jià)格波動(dòng)的影響更大:國(guó)際玉米價(jià)格對(duì)我國(guó)玉米市場(chǎng)價(jià)格影響相對(duì)有限;臨時(shí)收儲(chǔ)政策調(diào)動(dòng)了農(nóng)民的生產(chǎn)積極性,促進(jìn)了玉米生產(chǎn)和價(jià)格的穩(wěn)定,使玉米價(jià)格波動(dòng)在國(guó)際糧價(jià)劇烈波動(dòng)大背景下仍然保持著相對(duì)穩(wěn)定,但同時(shí)也造成我國(guó)玉米庫(kù)存大量積壓,國(guó)內(nèi)外玉米價(jià)格倒掛�；谝陨涎芯拷Y(jié)論,本文從提高玉米生產(chǎn)效率、穩(wěn)定玉米市場(chǎng)、完善玉米價(jià)格形成機(jī)制、統(tǒng)籌國(guó)內(nèi)外市場(chǎng)等角度提出了政策建議。
[Abstract]:Food is the root of people's livelihood, food security is not only a social problem but also a political issue. Grain price as the basis of 100-price, has long been widely concerned by the community. With the development of China's grain market and the gradual improvement of the opening degree, the factors affecting the fluctuation of grain prices tend to be diversified and complicated, and the frequent fluctuations of grain prices have a great impact on grain producers and consumers. Maize, as an important grain variety in China, plays an important role in China's food security. A thorough study on the characteristics of corn price fluctuation and its influencing factors is helpful to further understand the regularity of corn price fluctuation in China. In order to provide the decision basis for stabilizing the corn market in our country, and then promote the healthy and stable development of the corn market in our country, and provide the reference for the regulation and control strategy of other grain varieties in our country. Based on the current situation of corn supply and demand in China, this paper systematically analyzes the specific situation of corn production, consumption, trade and stock in China, and reflects the change and development of maize in China in the form of intuitionistic chart since the reform and opening up. Then the time series data of maize price in China from 1990 to 2015 were separated by H-P filter decomposition method, and the trend characteristics and periodic characteristics of corn price fluctuation were analyzed on the basis of component decomposition and periodicity. On the basis of the analysis frame of local equilibrium theory, a local equilibrium model of corn market in China is constructed, which consists of seven behavioral equations, including area equation, yield equation, forage corn consumption equation, two definition equations and one equilibrium equation. Through the scenario simulation of the main exogenous variables which affect the price fluctuation, this paper empirically explores the main factors that affect the price fluctuation of maize in China from 1990 to 2013. The results show that there is a long-term trend of stable growth of corn price fluctuation in China, and the whole maize price fluctuates with asymmetry and significant periodicity. The price fluctuation of maize in China varied greatly in different periods. Before 2002, the price fluctuation range was large, then the fluctuation range decreased, until 2007, under the influence of international factors, the fluctuation range increased slightly, but the increase was limited. Among the influencing factors of price fluctuation, the increase of per capita GDP and urbanization rate is the main factor that affects the price fluctuation of maize in China from 2009 to 2013. Moreover, the per capita GDP has a greater impact on the fluctuation of corn price: the international corn price has relatively limited influence on the corn market price in China; the temporary reserve policy has mobilized the farmers' enthusiasm for production and promoted the stability of maize production and price. The fluctuation of corn price is still relatively stable under the background of severe fluctuation of international grain price, but at the same time, it also causes a large backlog of corn stocks in our country, and domestic and foreign corn prices are hanging upside down. Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions from the aspects of improving the maize production efficiency, stabilizing the corn market, perfecting the mechanism of corn price formation and coordinating the domestic and foreign markets.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F323.7

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本文編號(hào)：2189271