區(qū)域土地承載力研究及實(shí)例分析
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-26 20:11
【摘要】：土地承載力是在一定時(shí)期,一定空間區(qū)域,一定的社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)、生態(tài)環(huán)境條件下,土地資源所能承載的人類各種活動(dòng)的規(guī)模和強(qiáng)度的閾值,可分別用人口和GDP規(guī)模表征。由于區(qū)域面積是一定的,人口與GDP對(duì)土地的需求呈競爭的關(guān)系,一個(gè)人口規(guī)模數(shù)值對(duì)應(yīng)一個(gè)GDP閾值。在我國人口現(xiàn)狀發(fā)展趨勢下,區(qū)域人口是可以預(yù)測或變化不大的,因此,可以計(jì)算得到一定人口規(guī)模下,區(qū)域土地能夠支撐的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模最大值�；贕DP的構(gòu)成,搭建了土地承載力經(jīng)濟(jì)部分的綜合模型框架,引入土地經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出率參數(shù)將土地面積與經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系起來,細(xì)化了綜合模型。該綜合模型涉及人口、作物產(chǎn)量、消費(fèi)水平、土地經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出率等多個(gè)參數(shù),這些參數(shù)的計(jì)算方法及模型可作為綜合模型的子模型,由于參數(shù)取值的方法或模型較多,參數(shù)的結(jié)果對(duì)綜合模型的結(jié)果又有較大的影響,所以從參數(shù)方法的選擇、參數(shù)預(yù)測精度檢驗(yàn)方法、誤差傳遞和模型結(jié)果的可靠性、可達(dá)性等方面對(duì)綜合模型的結(jié)果可靠性進(jìn)行了研究,最后可以得到目標(biāo)年,一定人口規(guī)模下,區(qū)域土地能夠支撐的GDP最大值,以及95%置信度下GDP最大值的區(qū)間。從工業(yè)用地合理利用的角度研究了如何提高工業(yè)用地承載力。工業(yè)用地是對(duì)土地承載力經(jīng)濟(jì)部分影響最大的用地類型,工業(yè)用地再分配給主導(dǎo)行業(yè)可以有效提高土地經(jīng)濟(jì)承載力。論文從工業(yè)發(fā)展、土地資源利用、生態(tài)環(huán)境保護(hù)三個(gè)方面確定了6個(gè)指標(biāo)作為篩選區(qū)域主導(dǎo)行業(yè)時(shí)的排序依據(jù);建立了以COD、氨氮、SO2、NOx四種污染物的最大排放量為約束條件,以工業(yè)增加值最大化為目標(biāo)的公式組,其結(jié)果就是工業(yè)用地在行業(yè)間的最優(yōu)再分配。以揚(yáng)州市為實(shí)例分析的主要結(jié)論如下:(1)2020年揚(yáng)州市人口為464.9087萬人時(shí),土地面積分配及承載的GDP閾值:滿足該數(shù)量人口高水平食物消費(fèi)需求量所需的最小農(nóng)用地面積為1862.68 km~2,最大建設(shè)用地面積為3638.06 km~2,較2015年新增可用建設(shè)用地面積686.86 km~2。若不再進(jìn)行更細(xì)層次的面積再分配,按現(xiàn)狀發(fā)展趨勢,2020年農(nóng)用地經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出率為0.0751億元/km~2、建設(shè)用地經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出率為3.9668億元/km~2,土地可承載的GDP閾值為14571.34億元,是按現(xiàn)狀經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展趨勢的2.5027倍,其95%置信度水平上預(yù)測區(qū)間為14188.35～14954.33億元。(2)按工業(yè)產(chǎn)值占工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值的比例、工業(yè)增加值增長速度、單位面積工業(yè)增加值、單位面積工業(yè)產(chǎn)值增長速度、SO2排放效率、NOx排放效率、COD排放效率、氨氮排放效率綜合排序后篩選出9個(gè)主導(dǎo)行業(yè),分別為:電氣機(jī)械和器材制造業(yè)、汽車制造業(yè)、專用設(shè)備制造業(yè)、計(jì)算機(jī)、通信和其他電子設(shè)備制造業(yè)、金屬制品業(yè)、通用設(shè)備制造業(yè)、有色金屬冶煉和壓延加工業(yè)、化學(xué)原料和化學(xué)制品制造業(yè)、其他制造業(yè)。以不高于基準(zhǔn)年COD、氨氮、SO2、NOx四種污染物的排放總量為約束條件,對(duì)新增建設(shè)用地進(jìn)行再分配。可再分配建設(shè)用地為686.86km~2時(shí),新增工業(yè)用地可支撐的工業(yè)用地經(jīng)濟(jì)承載力為19287.03億元;可再分配建設(shè)用地為555.00km~2時(shí),新增工業(yè)用地可支撐的工業(yè)用地經(jīng)濟(jì)承載力為15584.40億元;可再分配建設(shè)用地為408.45km~2時(shí),新增工業(yè)用地可支撐的工業(yè)用地經(jīng)濟(jì)承載力為11469.28億元。
[Abstract]:The land carrying capacity is the threshold of the scale and intensity of the human activities that the land resources can carry under certain period, certain space area, certain social, economic and ecological environment, which can be characterized by the population and the scale of GDP respectively. Because the area is certain, the population and the demand for the land are competing with the GDP, a person. The size of the mouth size corresponds to a GDP threshold. Under the current trend of population development in China, the regional population can be predicted or changed little. Therefore, the maximum value of the economic scale supported by regional land can be calculated under a certain population scale. Based on the composition of GDP, a comprehensive model framework of the economic part of the land carrying capacity is set up, and the introduction of the comprehensive model framework of the economic part of the land carrying capacity is introduced. The land economic output rate parameters link the land area with the economy and refine the comprehensive model. This comprehensive model involves many parameters such as population, crop yield, consumption level, land economic output rate and so on. The calculation methods and models of these parameters can be used as submodels of the comprehensive model. The result has a great influence on the results of the comprehensive model, so the results reliability of the integrated model is studied from the selection of the parameter method, the accuracy test method of the parameter prediction accuracy, the reliability of the error transfer and the model results, and the accessibility. Finally, the G can be supported by the regional land under a certain population scale. The maximum value of DP and the interval of the maximum value of GDP under 95% confidence degree. From the point of view of the rational utilization of industrial land, the paper studies how to improve the bearing capacity of industrial land. The industrial land is the most important land type for the economic part of the land carrying capacity, and the redistribution of industrial land to the leading industry can effectively improve the land economic bearing capacity. Three aspects of development, land resource utilization and ecological environment protection have been determined in three aspects, 6 indexes are selected as the sorting basis for selecting the leading industries of the region. The maximum emission of four kinds of pollutants, with COD, ammonia nitrogen, SO2, and NOx as the constraint conditions, is set up to maximize the industrial value added. The result is that the industrial land is the most important in the industry. The main conclusions of Yangzhou city are as follows: (1) when the population of Yangzhou is 4 million 649 thousand and 87 people in 2020, the land area distribution and the GDP threshold of carrying capacity are 1862.68 km~2, the maximum construction land area is 3638.06 km~2, and the maximum construction land area is more than 2015 NEW. If the area of the construction land is increased 686.86 km~2., if the area is no longer redistributed, the economic output rate of agricultural land is 7 million 510 thousand yuan /km~2 in 2020, the economic output rate of construction land is 396 million 680 thousand yuan /km~2, and the GDP threshold of the land is 1 trillion and 457 billion 134 million yuan, which is 2.5027 times of the current economic development trend, and its 9 The prediction interval of 5% confidence level is 14188.35 to 1 trillion and 495 billion 433 million yuan. (2) according to the proportion of industrial output value, industrial added value growth rate, industrial added value per unit area, growth rate of industrial output value per unit area, SO2 emission efficiency, NOx emission efficiency, COD discharge efficiency, and ammonia nitrogen discharge efficiency, 9 main types are selected after comprehensive sequencing of ammonia nitrogen emission efficiency. Leading industries are: electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing, metal products, general equipment manufacturing, non-ferrous metal smelting and calender industry, chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing, other manufacturing industries. It is not higher than COD, ammonia nitrogen, SO2 The total amount of the four kinds of NOx pollutants is restricted, and the new construction land is redistributed. When the construction land is redistributed for 686.86km~2, the economic bearing capacity of the industrial land which can be supported by the new industrial land is 1 trillion and 928 billion 703 million yuan. When the construction land is redistributed for 555.00km~2, the new industrial land can be supported by the industrial land economy. When the redistribution of construction land is 408.45km~2, the economic carrying capacity of the new industrial land that can be supported is 1 trillion and 146 billion 928 million yuan, with a force of 1 trillion and 558 billion 440 million yuan.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：揚(yáng)州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F301.2
本文編號(hào)：2147156
[Abstract]:The land carrying capacity is the threshold of the scale and intensity of the human activities that the land resources can carry under certain period, certain space area, certain social, economic and ecological environment, which can be characterized by the population and the scale of GDP respectively. Because the area is certain, the population and the demand for the land are competing with the GDP, a person. The size of the mouth size corresponds to a GDP threshold. Under the current trend of population development in China, the regional population can be predicted or changed little. Therefore, the maximum value of the economic scale supported by regional land can be calculated under a certain population scale. Based on the composition of GDP, a comprehensive model framework of the economic part of the land carrying capacity is set up, and the introduction of the comprehensive model framework of the economic part of the land carrying capacity is introduced. The land economic output rate parameters link the land area with the economy and refine the comprehensive model. This comprehensive model involves many parameters such as population, crop yield, consumption level, land economic output rate and so on. The calculation methods and models of these parameters can be used as submodels of the comprehensive model. The result has a great influence on the results of the comprehensive model, so the results reliability of the integrated model is studied from the selection of the parameter method, the accuracy test method of the parameter prediction accuracy, the reliability of the error transfer and the model results, and the accessibility. Finally, the G can be supported by the regional land under a certain population scale. The maximum value of DP and the interval of the maximum value of GDP under 95% confidence degree. From the point of view of the rational utilization of industrial land, the paper studies how to improve the bearing capacity of industrial land. The industrial land is the most important land type for the economic part of the land carrying capacity, and the redistribution of industrial land to the leading industry can effectively improve the land economic bearing capacity. Three aspects of development, land resource utilization and ecological environment protection have been determined in three aspects, 6 indexes are selected as the sorting basis for selecting the leading industries of the region. The maximum emission of four kinds of pollutants, with COD, ammonia nitrogen, SO2, and NOx as the constraint conditions, is set up to maximize the industrial value added. The result is that the industrial land is the most important in the industry. The main conclusions of Yangzhou city are as follows: (1) when the population of Yangzhou is 4 million 649 thousand and 87 people in 2020, the land area distribution and the GDP threshold of carrying capacity are 1862.68 km~2, the maximum construction land area is 3638.06 km~2, and the maximum construction land area is more than 2015 NEW. If the area of the construction land is increased 686.86 km~2., if the area is no longer redistributed, the economic output rate of agricultural land is 7 million 510 thousand yuan /km~2 in 2020, the economic output rate of construction land is 396 million 680 thousand yuan /km~2, and the GDP threshold of the land is 1 trillion and 457 billion 134 million yuan, which is 2.5027 times of the current economic development trend, and its 9 The prediction interval of 5% confidence level is 14188.35 to 1 trillion and 495 billion 433 million yuan. (2) according to the proportion of industrial output value, industrial added value growth rate, industrial added value per unit area, growth rate of industrial output value per unit area, SO2 emission efficiency, NOx emission efficiency, COD discharge efficiency, and ammonia nitrogen discharge efficiency, 9 main types are selected after comprehensive sequencing of ammonia nitrogen emission efficiency. Leading industries are: electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing, metal products, general equipment manufacturing, non-ferrous metal smelting and calender industry, chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing, other manufacturing industries. It is not higher than COD, ammonia nitrogen, SO2 The total amount of the four kinds of NOx pollutants is restricted, and the new construction land is redistributed. When the construction land is redistributed for 686.86km~2, the economic bearing capacity of the industrial land which can be supported by the new industrial land is 1 trillion and 928 billion 703 million yuan. When the construction land is redistributed for 555.00km~2, the new industrial land can be supported by the industrial land economy. When the redistribution of construction land is 408.45km~2, the economic carrying capacity of the new industrial land that can be supported is 1 trillion and 146 billion 928 million yuan, with a force of 1 trillion and 558 billion 440 million yuan.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：揚(yáng)州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F301.2
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