【摘要】：土地是經(jīng)濟社會不可或缺的重要資源和活動場所。改革開放以來,我國經(jīng)濟快速增長,但由于我國資源掠奪式粗放發(fā)展模式,使得土地資源與用地需求之間的矛盾逐漸激化,未來如何科學合理、節(jié)約和集約用地,走可持續(xù)發(fā)展的道路成為各界關注的焦點。因此,研究建設用地擴張與經(jīng)濟增長的互動關系顯得尤為重要。本文以漢中市為研究對象,懫用理論與實證相結合、定性定量相結合和歷史分析與未來預測相結合的方法,基于1997-2014年的相關數(shù)據(jù),研究建設用地擴張與經(jīng)濟增長之間的脫鉤關系。首先,簡要回顧了漢中市建設用地擴張與經(jīng)濟增長情況;然后,運用Tapio脫鉤彈性系數(shù)模型分析了兩者之間的脫鉤狀態(tài)及變化趨勢;其次,采用脫鉤努力模型評價政府脫鉤努力程度,分析了上述脫鉤狀態(tài)產(chǎn)生的原因;最后,采用情景分析法預測不同情景模式下漢中市建設用地擴張與經(jīng)濟增長脫鉤狀態(tài),并提出建設用地與經(jīng)濟增長優(yōu)化建議。研究結果表明:(1)漢中市建設用地擴張與經(jīng)濟增長雖然沒有實現(xiàn)絕對脫鉤,但實現(xiàn)了相對的脫鉤,說明漢中市經(jīng)濟增長仍需依靠建設用地的不斷投入來獲得,但依賴度不高。(2)從脫鉤努力評價結果來看,研究期間漢中市政府的脫鉤努力整體呈現(xiàn)出相對脫鉤努力狀態(tài)。從各效應的脫鉤努力程度測算結果來看,建設用地利用強度效應、人口規(guī)模效應和產(chǎn)業(yè)結構效應中建設用地利用強度效應的脫鉤努力作用最大,但作用效果有限,產(chǎn)業(yè)結構效應具有較大的建設用地脫鉤努力潛力。(3)通過分析漢中市建設用地擴張與經(jīng)濟增長相對脫鉤狀態(tài)產(chǎn)生的原因,漢中市若要實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟可持增長可進一步通過加強技術創(chuàng)新、優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結構和加強用地管理來實現(xiàn)。(4)根據(jù)2013-2020年漢中市建設用地與經(jīng)濟增長脫鉤預測結果,漢中市還努力向發(fā)達地區(qū)看齊,進一步從轉變用地觀念、加大產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調整、創(chuàng)新經(jīng)濟增長方式和強化用地管理這四個方面出發(fā),不斷的優(yōu)化建設用地擴張與經(jīng)濟增長間的關系。
[Abstract]:Land is an indispensable and important resource and activity place of economy and society. Since the reform and opening up, the economy of our country has grown rapidly, but the contradiction between land resources and land demand has been intensified gradually because of the extensive development mode of resources predatory in our country. How to make scientific, reasonable, economical and intensive land use in the future? To take the road of sustainable development has become the focus of attention. Therefore, it is particularly important to study the interactive relationship between construction land expansion and economic growth. This paper takes Hanzhong City as the research object, combining theory with demonstration, qualitative and quantitative analysis, and historical analysis and future prediction, based on the relevant data from 1997 to 2014. This paper studies the decoupling relationship between construction land expansion and economic growth. Firstly, the paper briefly reviews the situation of construction land expansion and economic growth in Hanzhong City, and then analyzes the decoupling state and changing trend by using the Tapio decoupling elastic coefficient model. The paper uses the decoupling effort model to evaluate the degree of government decoupling, and analyzes the reasons of the decoupling. Finally, the paper uses scenario analysis to predict the decoupling state of construction land expansion and economic growth in Hanzhong city under different scenarios. And put forward construction land and economic growth optimization suggestions. The results show that: (1) although the expansion of construction land and economic growth in Hanzhong City has not achieved absolute decoupling, it has achieved relative decoupling, indicating that the economic growth of Hanzhong City still depends on the continuous input of construction land. But the degree of dependence is not high. (2) judging from the evaluation results of decoupling efforts, Hanzhong municipal government's decoupling efforts showed a relative state of relative decoupling efforts. According to the calculation results of the degree of decoupling of each effect, the effect of construction land use intensity, population scale and industrial structure is the biggest, but the effect is limited. Industrial structure effect has great potential for decoupling of construction land. (3) by analyzing the reasons for the relative decoupling of construction land expansion and economic growth in Hanzhong City, If Hanzhong city wants to achieve sustainable economic growth, it can be further achieved by strengthening technological innovation, optimizing industrial structure and strengthening land use management. (4) according to the forecast results of decoupling between construction land and economic growth in Hanzhong City from 2013 to 2020, Hanzhong has also striven to be in line with the developed regions, further changing the concept of land use, increasing the adjustment of industrial structure, innovating the mode of economic growth, and strengthening land use management. Continuous optimization of the relationship between construction land expansion and economic growth.
【學位授予單位】：長安大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F301.2

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