本文選題：飼料谷物 + 畜產(chǎn)品��； 參考：《中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)》2017年05期

【摘要】：為探討肉蛋奶生產(chǎn)對(duì)飼料谷物需求量,利用誤差修正模型和ARIMA模型,基于1980—2013年我國(guó)肉蛋奶產(chǎn)量和飼料谷物消費(fèi)量的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)分析。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),未來(lái)肉蛋奶產(chǎn)量和飼料谷物需求量均呈現(xiàn)逐年增長(zhǎng)的態(tài)勢(shì),2025年肉蛋奶產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到18 788萬(wàn)t,飼料谷物需求量將突破20 000萬(wàn)t,達(dá)到21 596萬(wàn)t。未來(lái)飼料谷物的供需平衡關(guān)乎我國(guó)畜產(chǎn)品的有效供給。因此,合理擴(kuò)大飼料谷物的生產(chǎn)面積,提高單產(chǎn)水平以及適度進(jìn)口、加大飼料科技投入和提高科技轉(zhuǎn)化效率可能是緩解飼料谷物需求壓力的有效途徑。
[Abstract]:In order to study the demand of meat, egg and milk production for feed grain, the error correction model and Arima model were used to forecast and analyze the output of meat, egg and milk and the consumption of feed grain in China from 1980 to 2013. The results showed that the future production of meat, egg and milk and the demand of feed grain would increase year by year. The output of meat, egg and milk would reach 187.88 million t in 2025, and the demand of feed grain would exceed 200 million t, reaching 215.96 million t. The balance between supply and demand of forage cereals in the future relates to the effective supply of animal products in China. Therefore, it may be an effective way to reduce the pressure of feed grain demand by reasonably enlarging the production area of forage grain, increasing the level of unit yield and moderate import, increasing the input of feed science and technology and improving the efficiency of scientific and technological transformation.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)與發(fā)展研究所;新疆農(nóng)業(yè)職業(yè)技術(shù)學(xué)院;
【基金】：基金項(xiàng)目 中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院科技創(chuàng)新工程(ASTIP-IAED-2015-01)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F324.6

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