長(zhǎng)江中游地區(qū)糧食增長(zhǎng)的結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)分析——基于Shift-Share模型的分析驗(yàn)證
發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-05-30 21:04
本文選題:糧食作物 + 結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng) ; 參考:《農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)》2016年08期
【摘要】:本文運(yùn)用Shift-Share模型對(duì)長(zhǎng)江中游四省的糧食作物結(jié)構(gòu)內(nèi)部?jī)?yōu)勢(shì)與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力進(jìn)行了比較,以分析糧食連年豐收背景下作物內(nèi)部增長(zhǎng)的結(jié)構(gòu)與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)差異。研究結(jié)果表明:長(zhǎng)江中游水稻不具備結(jié)構(gòu)性優(yōu)勢(shì)與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì);小麥同時(shí)具有結(jié)構(gòu)性優(yōu)勢(shì)和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì);玉米具有結(jié)構(gòu)性優(yōu)勢(shì)但是缺乏競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì);豆類、薯類無(wú)結(jié)構(gòu)性優(yōu)勢(shì),但是豆類由于單產(chǎn)水平提高表現(xiàn)出一定的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)。從農(nóng)作物內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)看,2004年以來(lái)長(zhǎng)江中游糧食作物播種面積基本保持在農(nóng)作物總播種面積約62%的比例。其中四省水稻播種面積基本保持穩(wěn)定,擴(kuò)張空間有限;安徽和湖北小麥有較大幅度增長(zhǎng);除江西外其他三省玉米均呈現(xiàn)出上漲趨勢(shì)。長(zhǎng)江中游作為糧食主產(chǎn)區(qū)的重要組成部分,應(yīng)當(dāng)發(fā)揮自身資源與環(huán)境優(yōu)勢(shì),從結(jié)構(gòu)與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力出發(fā),調(diào)整水稻生產(chǎn)品種結(jié)構(gòu)、提高品質(zhì),積極支持安徽和湖北北部小麥生產(chǎn),克服玉米生產(chǎn)限制性因子、提高單產(chǎn)水平,以進(jìn)一步發(fā)揮區(qū)域作物結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)勢(shì),增加競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)。
[Abstract]:In this paper, Shift-Share model was used to compare the internal advantages and competitiveness of grain crop structure in four provinces in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, in order to analyze the structure and competition difference of crop growth under the background of harvest in successive years. The results show that rice in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River has no structural advantage and competitive advantage; wheat has both structural advantage and competitive advantage; maize has structural advantage but lacks competitive advantage; beans and potato have no structural advantage; However, beans show a certain competitive advantage because of the improvement of unit yield level. According to the internal structure of crops, the planting area of grain crops in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River has been kept at about 62% of the total planting area since 2004. The sown area of rice in four provinces remained stable and the expansion space was limited; wheat in Anhui and Hubei increased by a large margin; and maize in the other three provinces except Jiangxi showed an upward trend. As an important part of the main grain producing areas, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River should give play to its own advantages of resources and environment, start from the structure and competitiveness, adjust the structure of rice varieties, improve the quality, and actively support wheat production in Anhui and northern Hubei. The limiting factors of maize production should be overcome and the yield level should be improved in order to give full play to the advantages of regional crop structure and increase the competitive advantage.
【作者單位】: 華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院;華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)公共管理學(xué)院;
【基金】:中央高校基本科研業(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)專項(xiàng)基金資助項(xiàng)目(編號(hào):2662016PY060) 國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“不同農(nóng)業(yè)耕作系統(tǒng)主要糧食作物產(chǎn)量限制性因子評(píng)估與重要限制因子作用規(guī)律研究”(編號(hào):71203073);國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)雙重轉(zhuǎn)型下土地轉(zhuǎn)換效率測(cè)度及效率改進(jìn)政策調(diào)控原理研究”(編號(hào):71573101)
【分類號(hào)】:F326.11
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本文編號(hào):1956809
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