本文選題：土地利用 + 碳排放　； 參考：《重慶師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：由全球氣候變化帶來的冰川消融、極端天氣、物種滅絕、海平面上升以及各種自然災(zāi)害的頻發(fā),已經(jīng)使社會發(fā)展中的糧食安全、能源安全和生態(tài)環(huán)境安全等面臨嚴(yán)峻的直接威脅。大量的研究表明,引起全球氣候變化的人類活動影響主要有兩方面的表現(xiàn):一是因煤炭、石油和天然氣等化石燃料為主的傳統(tǒng)能源消耗引起的碳排放現(xiàn)象;二是因土地利用類型變化引起的溫室氣體大量排放現(xiàn)象。根據(jù)世界自然基金會報告,大約將近10億噸的碳排放是因土地利用類型變化而被忽視;土地利用類型變化對全球大氣中CO2含量的增加有著舉足輕重的影響。所以在低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的大環(huán)境背景下,如何實現(xiàn)低碳排放的土地利用規(guī)劃和管理就顯得格外重要。本文以重慶市五大功能區(qū)為研究對象,結(jié)合RS和GIS、Markov和Logistic模型以及CA-Markov模型,在1995年、2005年和2015年三期土地利用數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上,分析重慶市五大功能區(qū)1995-2015年土地利用類型間的變化及其影響因子;構(gòu)建CA-Markov模型,然后對重慶市各大功能區(qū)未來土地利用變化類型進(jìn)行模擬;再運用碳排放模型對重慶市1995-2015年以及未來各土地利用類型的碳排放量和總碳排放量進(jìn)行初步核算。以期為西南山區(qū)三峽庫區(qū)典型的經(jīng)濟(jì)和生態(tài)環(huán)境保護(hù)區(qū)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供參考,對科學(xué)有效的制定土地規(guī)劃及管理工作具有指導(dǎo)作用和現(xiàn)實意義。主要內(nèi)容如下:(1)從土地利用的數(shù)量變化和土地利用空間分布變化兩方面對重慶市各大功能區(qū)1995-2015年土地利用動態(tài)進(jìn)行分析:各大功能區(qū)均是耕地和未利用地持續(xù)減少,而林地、草地、水域和建設(shè)用地呈現(xiàn)不斷增加的趨勢。在數(shù)量上,20年間各個分區(qū)的耕地均不斷減少,其中都市功能核心區(qū)及拓展區(qū)耕地減少最多,減少面積比例高達(dá)16.20%;林地持續(xù)增加,其中城市發(fā)展新區(qū)增幅最大,增長的面積比例最高達(dá)11.58%;草地、水域和建設(shè)用地在各功能區(qū)均持續(xù)增長,且漲幅相近;未利用地基數(shù)較小,雖然也持續(xù)減少,但總體影響不大。渝東北生態(tài)涵養(yǎng)發(fā)展區(qū)和渝東南生態(tài)保護(hù)區(qū)的各土地利用類型變化基本保持穩(wěn)定,且與整體變化較一致。在空間分布上,全區(qū)域主要是林地、耕地、草地和建設(shè)用地這四類分布范圍最廣;各個功能區(qū)整體的用地類型空間分布變化劇烈程度均是建設(shè)用地未利用地耕地水域草地林地。(2)土地利用變化的影響因子分析。本文選取的影響土地利用類型變化的因子主要有自然環(huán)境、空間距離和社會經(jīng)濟(jì)三方面。耕地變化最顯著的解釋變量是社會經(jīng)濟(jì)因素,空間距離因素起到了持續(xù)穩(wěn)定的重要作用;社會經(jīng)濟(jì)因素對林地類型發(fā)生變化的作用持續(xù)顯著;社會經(jīng)濟(jì)因素(常住人口密度、農(nóng)民純收入)和空間距離(到原有草地距離)對草地類型變化的發(fā)生起到較大作用;對水域變化影響最大的是空間距離中到原有水域的距離;社會經(jīng)濟(jì)因素對建設(shè)用地的影響顯著,并且重要性明顯上升;社會經(jīng)濟(jì)因子中的常住人口密度和薪材需求量以及空間距離因子中的到道路距離和到居民點距離,對未利用地變化的發(fā)生起到較大影響。(3)土地利用預(yù)測及精度檢驗。運用markov模型得到土地利用面積轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣,結(jié)合土地利用變化影響因子,制定合適的轉(zhuǎn)換規(guī)則,再運用logistic回歸模型生成土地利用適宜性圖集,然后利用ca-markov模型模擬重慶市2015年土地利用格局,與2015年實際土地利用數(shù)據(jù)對比,分析并驗證該模型預(yù)測的精確性,檢驗的kappa系數(shù)達(dá)到0.87,大于0.75,符合模擬精度要求。因此可對未來10年即2025年的土地利用變化進(jìn)行預(yù)測模擬,并根據(jù)對轉(zhuǎn)換參數(shù)的修改得到不同情境下的土地利用模擬預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)。(4)重慶市未來土地利用分情景模擬。在三種不同的情景下,土地利用類型在數(shù)量變化上,每一種用地類型的總量趨于逐漸穩(wěn)定的態(tài)勢,變化的速度和幅度也均有不同程度的下降;在空間格局上,變化最為劇烈的是建設(shè)用地的發(fā)展,基本上集中在原有建設(shè)用地的邊緣以及交通道路的邊沿,因此原有建設(shè)用地邊緣以及交通道路邊沿的耕地、林地、草地或水域等其他用地類型均會出現(xiàn)不同程度的被侵占,這是城市發(fā)展的必然結(jié)果。(5)重慶市土地利用碳排放效應(yīng)分析。從1995年到2015年的20年間,重慶市總碳排放量處于持續(xù)增長的狀態(tài),增加了3826.65?104t,增長率達(dá)78.80%。耕地中的農(nóng)作物是既有碳排放的作用,同時又會產(chǎn)生一定的碳吸收;林地作為所有用地類型中主要的碳匯,其碳吸收能力是所有用地類型中最強的;草地、水域和未利用地本身表現(xiàn)為碳匯作用;建設(shè)用地是主要的碳源,其碳排放強度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)大于其他用地類型能夠吸收的強度,導(dǎo)致整個重慶市均表現(xiàn)為碳排放的狀態(tài)。(6)對未來各土地利用類型碳排放進(jìn)行預(yù)測。情景1中六大地類的碳排放類型中,耕地、水域和建設(shè)用地仍是碳源,建設(shè)用地的碳排放量較10年前增長迅速,且增長率高達(dá)35.80%;林地、草地和未利用地這三類全為碳匯。情景2中整體用地類型的碳匯碳源表現(xiàn)功能不變,不同的是建設(shè)用地碳排放量增長達(dá)到了前所未有的峰值,而其他用地類型無論是碳排放作用還是碳吸收作用,都遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)無法企及建設(shè)用地對重慶市碳排放的整體影響,直接導(dǎo)致2025年重慶市的碳排放量呈現(xiàn)出暴增狀態(tài)。情境3下的碳源和碳匯在相關(guān)措施的實施下有增有減,但明顯可以看到:在整個區(qū)域碳排放量幾乎起絕對性作用的建設(shè)用地的碳源作用在明顯減弱;耕地和水域的碳排放量也持續(xù)較小,但對整體影響有限;而林地、草地和未利用地三類起主要碳匯作用的用地類型,在相關(guān)政策的頒布和實施下,碳吸收強度明顯的增強。由于起壓倒性作用的建設(shè)用地碳排放強度的大幅度減弱,使得情景3情況下的總碳排放量增長比例最小,僅有18.65%。
[Abstract]:The melting of glaciers from global climate change, extreme weather, extinction of species, rising sea level and the frequent occurrence of various natural disasters have made the social development of food security, energy security and ecological environment facing severe direct threats. A large number of studies have shown that human activities that cause global climate change are mainly affected. Two aspects of the performance: one is the carbon emissions caused by the traditional energy consumption of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas, and the two is a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions caused by the change of land use types. According to the world natural foundation, about 10 billion tons of carbon emissions are ignored by the change of land use types. The change of land use type has an important influence on the increase of CO2 content in the global atmosphere. Therefore, under the background of low carbon economy, how to realize the land use planning and management of low carbon emissions is particularly important. This paper takes the five major functional areas of Chongqing as the research object, combining with the RS and GIS, Markov and Logistic models. And CA-Markov model, based on three periods of land use data in 1995, 2005 and 2015, the change of land use types between the five functional areas of Chongqing and its influencing factors are analyzed, and the CA-Markov model is constructed, and then the types of land use change in the major functional areas of Chongqing are simulated, and carbon emission models are used again. In order to provide reference for the sustainable development of the typical economic and ecological environmental protection areas in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of the southwest mountain area, the type of carbon emission and total carbon emissions of various land use types in the 1995-2015 years and the future of Chongqing city are preliminarily calculated. The main contents are as follows: (1) from two aspects of the change of land use and the spatial distribution of land use, the land use dynamics of each major functional area in Chongqing are analyzed in the following two aspects: all the major functional areas are the continuous reduction of cultivated land and unused land, while the forest, grassland, water and construction land are increasing trend. In the past 20 years, the cultivated land in each area has been reduced continuously, of which the urban functional core area and the extended area arable land decreased most, the proportion of the area reduced to 16.20%, the forest land continued to increase, and the urban development area was the largest increase, the growth area ratio was up to 11.58%; the grassland, water and construction land were increasing continuously in all functional areas, and the increase phase The unused ground base number is smaller, although it has been reduced, but the overall impact is not significant. The land use types of the Ecological Conservation Development Zone in Northeast Chongqing and the Southeast Chongqing ecological protection area are basically stable and consistent with the overall changes. In the spatial distribution, the whole region is mainly the four types of distribution models of woodland, cultivated land, grassland and construction land. The extent of the spatial distribution of land use types in each functional area is the most important. (2) analysis of the influence factors of land use change. The factors influencing the change of land use types mainly include natural environment, space distance and social economy three aspects. The most significant explanatory variable is socioeconomic factors, space distance factors play an important role in sustainable stability; social and economic factors have a significant effect on the change of woodland types; social and economic factors (resident population density, farmers' net income) and space distance (to the distance from the original grassland) are more important to the change of grassland types. The greatest impact on water change is the distance from the space distance to the original water area; the social and economic factors have a significant impact on the construction land, and the importance is obviously increased; the density of the resident population and the demand for the pay timber in the social and economic factors and the distance from the road to the residential point in the space distance factor and the distance to the residential area are not used. The occurrence of land change has a great influence. (3) land use prediction and accuracy test. Using the Markov model to get the land use area transfer matrix, combining the influence factors of land use change, formulating appropriate transformation rules, then using logistic regression model to generate the suitability map of land use, and then using the CA-Markov model to simulate Chongqing city. The land use pattern in 2015, compared with the actual land use data in 2015, analyzed and verified the accuracy of the model prediction. The kappa coefficient of the test was 0.87, more than 0.75, which was in line with the requirements of the simulation precision. Therefore, the land use changes in the next 10 years or 2025 could be predicted and simulated, and different conditions were obtained according to the modification of the transformation parameters. The land use simulation forecast data under the border. (4) Chongqing city future land use classification simulation. Under three different scenarios, the land use type in quantity change, the total amount of land use type tends to be gradually stable, the speed and amplitude of change also have the same degree decline; in the spatial pattern, the most dramatic change It is the development of the construction land, which is mainly concentrated on the edge of the original construction land and the edge of the traffic road. So the original construction land edge and the cultivated land, woodland, grassland or water area will be occupied in different degrees, which is the inevitable result of the development of the city. (5) Chongqing City In the 20 years from 1995 to 2015, the total carbon emission of Chongqing was in a state of continuous growth, which increased by 3826.65? 104t. The growth rate of the crop in 78.80%. cultivated land was both carbon emission and certain carbon absorption; the forest land was the main carbon sink in all land use types, and its carbon Absorptive capacity is the strongest in all land use types; grassland, water and unused land itself are carbon sequestration; construction land is the main carbon source, and its carbon emission intensity is far greater than that of other land types, which results in carbon emissions throughout Chongqing. (6) carbon emissions from various land use types in the future. In scenario 1, among the six types of carbon emissions in situation 1, cultivated land, water and construction land are still carbon sources, and the carbon emissions of construction land have increased rapidly over 10 years ago, and the rate of growth is up to 35.80%. The three types of woodland, grassland and unused land are all carbon sequestration. The growth of carbon emissions in construction land has reached an unprecedented peak, while other land types, whether carbon emissions or carbon absorption, are far from the overall impact of construction land on Chongqing's carbon emissions, which directly leads to a violent increase in the carbon emissions of the city of Chongqing in 2025. Situation 3 carbon and carbon sequestration is in phase. There is an increase and reduction in the implementation of the measures, but it is obvious that the carbon source of the construction land which has an almost absolute role in the whole region's carbon emissions is obviously weakened; the carbon emissions from the arable land and water are also relatively small, but the overall impact is limited; and the three types of land, the woodland, the grassland and the unused land, are the land types of the main carbon sequestration. With the promulgation and implementation of the relevant policies, the carbon absorption intensity is obviously enhanced. As a result of a large reduction in the intensity of the construction land carbon emission, the total carbon emissions increase in the situation 3 is the smallest, only 18.65%.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X24;F301.2

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 文楓;魯春陽;;重慶市土地利用碳排放效應(yīng)時空格局分異[J];水土保持研究;2016年04期

2 李春麗;唐宏;張志丹;車曉翠;;基于不同土地利用的吉林省碳排放時空格局分析[J];水土保持學(xué)報;2016年01期

3 韓驥;周翔;象偉寧;;土地利用碳排放效應(yīng)及其低碳管理研究進(jìn)展[J];生態(tài)學(xué)報;2016年04期

4 吳仕海;張安明;曹偉;李映暉;李燦;黃九松;嚴(yán)超;;基于能源消費的重慶市土地利用碳排放效應(yīng)分析[J];西南師范大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版);2015年01期

5 路昌;雷國平;張慧;周浩;田雅雯;單凱凱;朱丹彤;;黑龍江省哈爾濱市不同土地利用類型的碳排放效應(yīng)分析[J];水土保持研究;2014年06期

6 何丹;周t，

本文編號：1798818