本文選題：玉米 + 空間布局��； 參考：《華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：2000年以來,中國玉米生產(chǎn)空間布局發(fā)生變化,呈明顯的“北增”態(tài)勢。然而,玉米在北方地區(qū)激增的同時,加重了北方地區(qū)的資源環(huán)境壓力,這給玉米產(chǎn)業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展帶來新的挑戰(zhàn)。2015年11月農(nóng)業(yè)部發(fā)布《關于“鐮刀彎”地區(qū)玉米生產(chǎn)結構調(diào)整的指導意見》,指出要重點減少非優(yōu)勢玉米產(chǎn)區(qū)的生產(chǎn),繼續(xù)鞏固優(yōu)勢產(chǎn)區(qū)的生產(chǎn)。2017年中央“一號文件”指出玉米生產(chǎn)結構調(diào)整是農(nóng)業(yè)供給側結構性改革的重點。由此可見,在加快農(nóng)業(yè)供給側結構性改革的背景下,玉米生產(chǎn)結構調(diào)整和區(qū)域布局優(yōu)化勢在必行,且需要不斷推進。因此,本文重點考察2000-2014年玉米生產(chǎn)空間布局變化及其驅動因素,以期為玉米生產(chǎn)空間合理布局及產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供參考依據(jù)。本文以生產(chǎn)布局理論和新空間經(jīng)濟學理論為基礎,對2000-2014年中國玉米生產(chǎn)空間布局變化及其驅動因素進行實證研究。首先,基于2000-2014年玉米產(chǎn)量和播種面積數(shù)據(jù),分別采用生產(chǎn)集中度指數(shù)、生產(chǎn)規(guī)模指數(shù)分析玉米生產(chǎn)空間布局在省域及南北方的變化情況;其次,運用全局空間自相關與局部空間自相關指標考察玉米生產(chǎn)的空間相關性;再者,構建空間滯后模型對2000-2014年來玉米生產(chǎn)空間布局的驅動因素進行實證分析。主要形成以下研究結果:(1)通過對玉米生產(chǎn)集中度指數(shù)和生產(chǎn)規(guī)模指數(shù)進行測算,發(fā)現(xiàn)玉米生產(chǎn)主要集中在北方地區(qū),其生產(chǎn)空間布局在省份間發(fā)生明顯變化。同時,根據(jù)玉米生產(chǎn)集中度指數(shù)、生產(chǎn)規(guī)模指數(shù)的變化趨勢將玉米主產(chǎn)省份劃分為持續(xù)增長型、持續(xù)下降型、平穩(wěn)型和波動型四種類型。(2)通過對2000-2014年玉米播種面積的空間自相關性分析發(fā)現(xiàn):全局Moran’s I指數(shù)表明玉米生產(chǎn)在省份之間具有明顯的空間正相關性,空間依賴性特征明顯;局部Moran散點圖表明隨著時間的推移,玉米生產(chǎn)的空間集聚特征有所加強;從局部Moran指數(shù)的LISA集聚結果看,2014年玉米生產(chǎn)高-高(H-H)集聚類型主要分布在北方地區(qū),如東北三省及鄰近的河北、內(nèi)蒙古、山西和山東地區(qū),低-低(L-L)集聚類型以東南沿海為集聚地,分布在浙江、江西、福建和廣東地區(qū)。(3)通過進一步構建空間滯后模型對玉米生產(chǎn)空間布局的驅動因素進行實證研究。結果表明,城鎮(zhèn)化、非農(nóng)就業(yè)機會和相對收益等經(jīng)濟環(huán)境因素成為影響玉米生產(chǎn)空間布局變化的關鍵性因素。其中,城鎮(zhèn)化和非農(nóng)就業(yè)機會對玉米生產(chǎn)空間布局具有顯著的負向作用,而相對收益對玉米生產(chǎn)空間布局具有顯著的正向作用。由此可以看出,玉米生產(chǎn)逐漸向城鎮(zhèn)化率低、非農(nóng)就業(yè)機會少和相對收益比較高的地區(qū)轉移。本文基于以上研究結論,提出玉米生產(chǎn)空間布局優(yōu)化的政策建議:注重地區(qū)間玉米生產(chǎn)空間互動效應,繼續(xù)鞏固優(yōu)勢產(chǎn)區(qū)玉米生產(chǎn),調(diào)減非優(yōu)勢產(chǎn)區(qū)玉米生產(chǎn);切實保護玉米耕地,保障農(nóng)戶種植收益;減小非農(nóng)就業(yè)機會對玉米生產(chǎn)的負面影響,提高勞動者種植技能;加大農(nóng)業(yè)政策扶持力度,調(diào)動農(nóng)戶生產(chǎn)的積極性。
[Abstract]:Since 2000, the layout of space Chinese corn production changes, showed "North increase trend. However, the surge in corn in the northern region of the northern region at the same time, increased the pressure of resources and environment, for the sustainable development of maize industry bring new challenges to.2015 year in November the Ministry of Agriculture issued" guidance on about "adjustment corn production structure camber" area, pointed out the need to focus on reducing the non dominant corn production, continue to consolidate the advantages of producing area.2017 central document pointed out that the adjustment of corn production structure is agricultural supply side structural reform. The key node in the supply side, thus, accelerate agricultural structural reform under the background of maize the adjustment of the production structure and regional layout optimization is imperative, and the need to continue to promote. Therefore, this paper focuses on the space layout of maize production changes in 2000-2014 years and its driving factors, In order to provide reference for the reasonable layout of maize production space and sustainable development of the industry. This paper is based on the production layout theory and new spatial economics theory, makes an empirical study on the layout of Chinese corn production spatial variation of 2000-2014 years and the driving factors. First of all, 2000-2014 years of Maize yield and planting area based on the data, using production concentration index. Production scale index analysis of maize production spatial distribution changes in the province and the north and the South; secondly, using the global spatial autocorrelation and spatial autocorrelation index to investigate the spatial correlation of maize production; moreover, constructing the spatial lag model to analyze the driving factors of maize production in 2000-2014 years. The space layout form the following results: (1) were estimated by concentration index and production scale index of maize production, found mainly in Maize Production Concentrated in the northern region, its production layout change significantly in the provinces. At the same time, according to the concentration index of maize production, the change trend of production scale index of the corn producing provinces are divided into sustained growth, declining type, steady type and wave type four types. (2) based on the corn sown area of 2000-2014 years the spatial autocorrelation analysis shows that global Moran 's I index showed that corn production in between provinces has obvious spatial correlation, spatial dependence characteristics; local Moran scatterdiagram shows that with the passage of time, the spatial agglomeration characteristics of maize production has been strengthened; the results from the local Moran index of LISA agglomeration, 2014 corn the production of high - high (H-H) cluster types are mainly distributed in the northern regions, such as the northeast and neighboring Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Shandong regions, low - low (L-L) cluster types in the southeast along the The sea gathers, located in Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Fujian and Guangdong. (3) through the further construction of spatial lag driven model of maize production space layout of the empirical research. The results show that urbanization, non-agricultural employment opportunities and relative income economic factors become the key factor that affects the layout of spatial variation of Maize Production the urbanization and non-agricultural employment opportunities for maize production space layout has a significant negative effect, but the relative income has significant positive effect on maize production layout. Thus it can be seen that corn production gradually to the low rate of urbanization, transfer of non-agricultural employment opportunities and relatively less relatively high income areas. The above research based on the conclusion, put forward the maize production space layout optimization policy recommendations: focus on the interaction of maize production spatial effect between regions, continue to consolidate the advantages of corn production, To reduce the non dominant corn production; protecting Maize Farmland, protect farmers income; reduce non-agricultural employment opportunities negative effects on maize production, improve labor skills cultivation; increase the agricultural policy support, to mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers.

【學位授予單位】：華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F326.11

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