本文選題：苜蓿 + 供給��； 參考：《內(nèi)蒙古大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：中國(guó)在2012年啟動(dòng)"振興奶業(yè)苜蓿發(fā)展行動(dòng)"計(jì)劃,對(duì)苜蓿的重視程度提高,對(duì)有資質(zhì)的企業(yè)和農(nóng)民予以政策上的優(yōu)惠,政策的紅利使得市場(chǎng)上苜蓿需求數(shù)量快速上升,產(chǎn)品出現(xiàn)供不應(yīng)求的局面,苜蓿供求關(guān)系緊張,制約了奶牛養(yǎng)殖業(yè)的提質(zhì)增效,也影響了苜蓿產(chǎn)業(yè)在中國(guó)的發(fā)展。本文主要利用凈進(jìn)口依存度、計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型以及預(yù)測(cè)模型等方法對(duì)苜蓿供給和需求關(guān)系進(jìn)行了研究。首先分析了近年來(lái)苜蓿種子、苜蓿種植、商品草的產(chǎn)銷、面積以及進(jìn)出口情況,發(fā)現(xiàn)苜蓿草種的供應(yīng)量不足,雖然苜蓿種植面積大,但是苜蓿供應(yīng)短缺。苜蓿的進(jìn)口依存度高,隨著奶業(yè)等其他養(yǎng)殖業(yè)的發(fā)展對(duì)苜蓿的需求在逐年增加,供需缺口加大。利用2001-2015中國(guó)苜蓿主要種植省份的面板數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)建了苜蓿供給反應(yīng)模型和需求影響因素模型,結(jié)果顯示:苜蓿供給在種植方面主要受前期收購(gòu)價(jià)格、前期種植面積以及前期相關(guān)商品價(jià)格的影響,有明顯的滯后性。在單產(chǎn)方面主要受前期收購(gòu)價(jià)格、前期單產(chǎn)、自然災(zāi)害以及施肥情況的影響。苜蓿需求主要受苜蓿收購(gòu)價(jià)格、原料奶價(jià)格、規(guī)模以上養(yǎng)殖場(chǎng)奶牛存欄數(shù)以及企業(yè)加工能力等的影響。中國(guó)苜蓿供給無(wú)論長(zhǎng)期還是短期均缺乏彈性,苜蓿種植面積價(jià)格彈性大于苜蓿單產(chǎn)價(jià)格彈性,這就說(shuō)明在中國(guó)苜蓿的生產(chǎn)加工方面,生產(chǎn)者依據(jù)其價(jià)格走勢(shì)來(lái)對(duì)種植面積的把握和調(diào)控的效率更高。利用灰色馬爾科夫模型和二次指數(shù)平滑法對(duì)苜蓿的供需進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè),發(fā)現(xiàn)未來(lái)五年中國(guó)苜蓿供需缺口逐漸增大。為了更好地解決苜蓿供需間的矛盾,提出了加強(qiáng)農(nóng)企合作,鼓勵(lì)農(nóng)戶種草;抓住關(guān)鍵技術(shù),加強(qiáng)創(chuàng)新研發(fā);加強(qiáng)市場(chǎng)建設(shè),提高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范水平;構(gòu)建多元化的經(jīng)營(yíng)方式,促進(jìn)產(chǎn)銷一體化的建議。
[Abstract]:In 2012, China launched the "Action for promoting Alfalfa Development in Dairy Industry", which has given more attention to alfalfa and preferential policies for qualified enterprises and farmers. The dividend of the policy has led to a rapid increase in the number of alfalfa demand in the market.The shortage of supply and demand of alfalfa restricts the improvement of quality and efficiency of dairy cattle breeding and affects the development of alfalfa industry in China.In this paper, the relationship between supply and demand of alfalfa was studied by means of net import dependence, econometric model and prediction model.Firstly, the paper analyzes the production and marketing of alfalfa seed, alfalfa planting, commercial grass and its import and export in recent years. It is found that the supply of alfalfa seed is insufficient, although alfalfa planting area is large, but alfalfa supply is short.The import dependence of alfalfa is high. With the development of other breeding industries such as dairy industry, the demand for alfalfa is increasing year by year, and the gap between supply and demand is increasing.Based on the panel data of the main alfalfa growing provinces in China from 2001 to 2015, the alfalfa supply response model and the demand influencing factor model were constructed. The results showed that the alfalfa supply was mainly subject to the purchase price in the early stage of planting.The effect of early planting area and related commodity price has obvious lag.The yield is mainly affected by purchase price, yield, natural disaster and fertilization.Alfalfa demand is mainly affected by alfalfa purchase price, raw milk price, dairy cattle stock and processing ability of enterprises.The price elasticity of alfalfa planting area is greater than that of alfalfa per unit yield, which indicates that the alfalfa production and processing in China is more flexible than that of alfalfa production.The producer according to its price trend to the planting area grasp and the regulation efficiency is higher.The grey Markov model and quadratic exponential smoothing method were used to predict the supply and demand of alfalfa, and it was found that the gap between the supply and demand of alfalfa in China would increase gradually in the next five years.In order to better solve the contradiction between the supply and demand of alfalfa, it is proposed to strengthen the cooperation between agricultural enterprises and enterprises, encourage farmers to recommend, grasp key technologies, strengthen innovative research and development, strengthen market construction, improve the level of risk prevention, and build a diversified management mode.Suggestions for promoting the integration of production and marketing.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F324.6

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