本文選題：土地利用變化　切入點：情景模擬預測　出處：《資源科學》2017年09期

【摘要】：開展區(qū)域土地利用變化的多情景模擬對比研究,是厘清不同土地利用變化情景特點的重要基礎,可為土地利用規(guī)劃與政策制定提供多決策支持。本文在分析各地類轉移情況的基礎上,遵從自然增長、效益最大的原則,結合CLUE-S模型和Markov、Tietenberg模型對武漢市蔡甸區(qū)未來土地利用變化進行不同情景的模擬預測,并分析了各情景下土地利用變化的時空特征及土地收益。結果表明:(1)各情景下城鎮(zhèn)村及工礦用地的來源結構差異明顯。自然增長情景(情景Ⅰ)中城鎮(zhèn)村及工礦用地增加的主要來源是耕地和水域用地,收益最大情景(情景Ⅱ)中城鎮(zhèn)村及工礦用地增加的主要來源是耕地;(2)從景觀結構和穩(wěn)定性來看,兩種情景下耕地和城鎮(zhèn)村及工礦用地景觀結構變化顯著,耕地在兩種情景下均呈現(xiàn)"穩(wěn)定-不穩(wěn)定-穩(wěn)定"的變化規(guī)律,情景Ⅱ下城鎮(zhèn)村及工礦用地景觀穩(wěn)定性更高,且新生成的城鎮(zhèn)村及工礦用地斑塊具有面積小、數(shù)量多的特點;(3)各情景下城鎮(zhèn)用地擴張方式不盡相同,情景Ⅱ中城鎮(zhèn)用地的擴張具有擴張速度更緩和、布局更均勻的特點,情景Ⅰ中城鎮(zhèn)用地是圍繞中心城區(qū)的攤大餅外延擴張方式;(4)從土地收益來看,在相同用地量下情景Ⅱ中土地獲取的收益高于情景Ⅰ。
[Abstract]:The comparative study of multi-scenario simulation of regional land use change is an important basis to clarify the characteristics of different land use change scenarios and can provide multi-decision support for land use planning and policy making.On the basis of analyzing the situation of class transfer in various places, following the principle of natural growth and maximum benefit, combined with CLUE-S model and Markovan Tietenberg model, this paper simulates the different scenarios of land use change in Caidian District, Wuhan City.The temporal and spatial characteristics of land use change and land income were analyzed.The results show that there are significant differences in the source structure of town, village and industrial and mining land in different scenarios.In the natural growth scenario (scenario I), the main sources of the increase of urban villages and industrial and mining land are cultivated land and water land.According to the landscape structure and stability, the landscape structure of cultivated land and town village and industrial and mining land changed significantly in the two scenarios.Under both scenarios, cultivated land presents the law of "stability-instability-stability". Under scenario 鈪，

本文編號：1704572