本文選題：生豬生產　切入點：豬肉消費　出處：《東北農業(yè)大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著國民經濟水平的提高,人民生活的改善和營養(yǎng)均衡理念的發(fā)展,人們對豬肉的消費需求與日劇增。而近年來,由于供需失衡導致的一系列豬肉產量波動、價格波動和消費量波動,不僅給養(yǎng)殖戶的經濟利益帶來損失,而且也讓消費者面臨非常大的市場風險,進而影響畜牧業(yè)的平衡發(fā)展。因此,研究豬肉產業(yè)生產消費的波動特征及影響因素,以促進豬肉產業(yè)長期穩(wěn)定健康發(fā)展,滿足城鄉(xiāng)居民的消費需求,已成為關系民生的重大問題。本文基于歷史數據,從生產和消費兩個視角對黑龍江省生豬生產現狀和未來的供需情況進行了深入研究,具體研究如下:(1)從生豬生產和豬肉消費兩個視角分析了黑龍江省豬肉產業(yè)發(fā)展概況,得出:2000年以來,黑龍江省生豬生產和豬肉消費在豬肉產業(yè)發(fā)展變化中表現出各自的特征。在生豬生產方面:豬肉產量和豬肉價格都出現了明顯地變動;在豬肉消費方面:黑龍江省豬肉消費量與日俱增,消費水平也隨之增加。(2)黑龍江省生豬生產波動特征及影響因素研究。首先,應用HP濾波法對黑龍江省生豬生產波動進行分析,發(fā)現黑龍江省生豬生產波動呈現出三方面的特征:豬肉出欄量和豬肉年產量增長趨勢相同,黑龍江省生豬生產波幅在特殊情況下特別明顯外,波幅有所減緩以及生產呈現周期性的波動但趨勢近年來有所減緩;其次,應用因子分析法研究生豬生產波動成因,發(fā)現影響因素主要有四個,即供給因子、需求因子、生產因子和外生因子。其中,供給因子影響最大,需求因子次之,生產和外生因子最小。(3)黑龍江省豬肉消費特征及影響因素研究。黑龍江省豬肉消費量隨著居民生活水平的提高也主要表現出其自身特征,即居民的豬肉消費量從總體上看在逐年增高,但城鄉(xiāng)居民的豬肉消費量差距明顯。影響豬肉消費的因素主要是豬肉價格因素、豬肉肉質因素、消費者食品安全認知和營養(yǎng)健康認知。豬肉價格因素對居民豬肉消費需求影響相對最大,而消費者食品安全認知次之,但相對肉質因素和營養(yǎng)健康認知來說,影響效果依然很大。(4)黑龍江省豬肉供需預測及平衡分析。首先應用ARMA模型對黑龍江省未來五年豬肉生產量和消費量進行預測,表明豬肉生產量和消費量間嚴重不平衡;其次,根據生產量和消費量間缺口,分析其產生原因。最后,通過供需匹配系數將生產量與消費量進行調整,得到供給量和需求量。預計未來五年黑龍江省豬肉供需基本保持平衡。通過分析黑龍江省生豬生產與消費發(fā)展現狀和特征,為豬肉產業(yè)各個環(huán)節(jié)參與者指導實踐以及黑龍江省豬肉產業(yè)發(fā)展都具有十分重要的意義。
[Abstract]:With the improvement of the national economy, the improvement of the people's life and the development of the idea of nutrition balance, people's demand for pork consumption is increasing dramatically.In recent years, a series of fluctuations in pork output, prices and consumption caused by the imbalance between supply and demand have not only brought losses to farmers' economic interests, but also made consumers face very large market risks.And then affect the balanced development of animal husbandry.Therefore, studying the fluctuating characteristics and influencing factors of pork production and consumption in order to promote the long-term stable and healthy development of pork industry and meet the consumption needs of urban and rural residents has become a major issue related to people's livelihood.Based on historical data, the present situation of pig production and future supply and demand in Heilongjiang Province were studied from the perspectives of production and consumption.This paper analyzes the development of pork industry in Heilongjiang Province from the perspectives of pig production and pork consumption, and concludes that: since 2000, the pig production and pork consumption in Heilongjiang Province have shown their own characteristics in the development of pork industry.In the production of live pigs: pork production and pork prices have changed significantly; in terms of pork consumption: the consumption of pork in Heilongjiang Province is increasing with each passing day.Consumption level also increased. 2) the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of pig production in Heilongjiang Province.First of all, using HP filter method to analyze the fluctuation of production of live pigs in Heilongjiang Province, it is found that the fluctuation of production of live pigs in Heilongjiang Province shows three characteristics: the amount of pork out of stock and the increasing trend of annual output of pork are the same.The wave amplitude of live pig production in Heilongjiang Province is especially obvious under special circumstances. The amplitude of the wave has slowed down and the production has a periodic fluctuation, but the trend has slowed in recent years. Secondly, factor analysis method is used to study the causes of the fluctuation of live pig production.It is found that there are four main influencing factors, namely, supply factor, demand factor, production factor and exogenous factor.Among them, the supply factor is the most important, the demand factor is the second, the production and exogenous factor is the smallest.) the consumption characteristics and influencing factors of pork in Heilongjiang Province are studied.The pork consumption of Heilongjiang Province also shows its own characteristics with the improvement of the living standard of the residents, that is, the pork consumption of the residents is increasing year by year, but the difference of the consumption of pork between urban and rural residents is obvious.The main factors affecting pork consumption are pork price, pork meat quality, consumers' knowledge of food safety and nutrition and health.The influence of pork price factors on the consumption demand of pork was the biggest, followed by food safety cognition of consumers, but the effect was still great compared with meat quality factors and nutritional health cognition.) the prediction and balance analysis of pork supply and demand in Heilongjiang Province.Firstly, the ARMA model is used to predict the pork production and consumption in Heilongjiang Province in the next five years, which shows that the pork production and consumption are seriously unbalanced. Secondly, according to the gap between production and consumption, the causes of pork production and consumption are analyzed.Finally, supply and demand are obtained by adjusting production and consumption by matching coefficient of supply and demand.In the next five years, the pork supply and demand in Heilongjiang Province is basically balanced.Based on the analysis of the present situation and characteristics of pig production and consumption in Heilongjiang Province, it is of great significance to guide the practice of the participants in the pork industry and the development of the pork industry in Heilongjiang Province.
【學位授予單位】：東北農業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F326.3

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