珠三角丘陵區(qū)耕地質(zhì)量綜合評價(jià)及指標(biāo)權(quán)重敏感性分析
發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-04-01 10:15
本文選題:土地利用 切入點(diǎn):整治 出處:《農(nóng)業(yè)工程學(xué)報(bào)》2017年08期
【摘要】:快速工業(yè)化和城市化給珠三角地區(qū)的耕地造成一系列土壤環(huán)境污染問題,合理評價(jià)這些區(qū)域耕地質(zhì)量對指導(dǎo)耕地的有效利用和保護(hù)以及實(shí)現(xiàn)耕地?cái)?shù)量-質(zhì)量綜合平衡與管理具有重要意義。目前耕地質(zhì)量評價(jià)中,較少考慮土壤污染因素,并且缺乏對指標(biāo)的權(quán)重敏感性分析驗(yàn)證評價(jià)結(jié)果的可靠性。因此該文以珠三角土壤受污染區(qū)之一的增城區(qū)為例,綜合考慮土壤肥力因素以及土壤環(huán)境評價(jià)指標(biāo),從土壤理化性質(zhì)、農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)條件、區(qū)位條件、土壤環(huán)境4個(gè)方面構(gòu)建耕地質(zhì)量綜合評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,分析增城區(qū)耕地質(zhì)量總體特征及空間布局與行政區(qū)域分布規(guī)律,在此基礎(chǔ)上基于OAT(one-at-a-time)法來評估各指標(biāo)權(quán)重的不確定性對評價(jià)結(jié)果的影響程度。結(jié)果表明:增城區(qū)耕地整體質(zhì)量較高但優(yōu)質(zhì)耕地較少。在耕地質(zhì)量綜合評價(jià)中融入土壤污染因素,并對其進(jìn)行微觀定量分析,使得評價(jià)體系更全面。不同指標(biāo)權(quán)重變化對耕地質(zhì)量變化率影響的空間差異較大;對于同一指標(biāo),權(quán)重增加或減少的值相同時(shí),其對耕地質(zhì)量評價(jià)結(jié)果的敏感性相同。最大的MACR(mean absolute change rate)值3.558 2%遠(yuǎn)低于相應(yīng)的權(quán)重變化率30%,表明評價(jià)結(jié)果總體相對穩(wěn)定,該文初始確定的權(quán)重是合理的。該研究有助于國土相關(guān)部門更好地掌握土壤受污染區(qū)域的耕地質(zhì)量,在空間多準(zhǔn)則決策中減少不確定性影響。
[Abstract]:Reasonable evaluation of cultivated land quality in these regions is of great significance to guide the effective utilization and protection of cultivated land and to realize the comprehensive balance and management of cultivated land quantity and quality.At present, the factors of soil pollution are seldom considered in the evaluation of cultivated land quality, and the reliability of the evaluation results is verified by the weight sensitivity analysis of the indexes.Therefore, taking Zengcheng District, one of the contaminated areas in the Pearl River Delta, as an example, considering soil fertility factors and soil environmental evaluation indexes, the paper analyzes the physical and chemical properties of soil, agricultural production conditions and location conditions.The comprehensive evaluation index system of cultivated land quality was constructed in four aspects of soil environment, and the general characteristics of cultivated land quality, spatial distribution and distribution law of administrative region in Zengcheng district were analyzed.Based on the OAT-one-at-a-time method, the degree of influence of uncertainty of index weights on the evaluation results is evaluated.The results show that the overall quality of cultivated land in Zengcheng area is higher but the quality cultivated land is less.Soil pollution factors were integrated into the comprehensive evaluation of cultivated land quality and microcosmic quantitative analysis was carried out to make the evaluation system more comprehensive.For the same index, the sensitivity to the evaluation results of cultivated land quality is the same when the weight increases or decreases the same value.The maximum MACR(mean absolute change value of 3.558 is far lower than the corresponding weight change rate of 30, which indicates that the evaluation results are relatively stable, and the weights determined in this paper are reasonable.This study is helpful for the relevant departments to better understand the quality of cultivated land in contaminated soil areas and to reduce the uncertainty in spatial multi-criteria decision-making.
【作者單位】: 華南農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)水利與土木工程學(xué)院;廣東省土地信息工程技術(shù)研究中心;廣東省土地利用與整治重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;華南農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)資源環(huán)境學(xué)院;廣東省土地開發(fā)儲(chǔ)備局;
【基金】:廣東省科技計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2014B020206002,2015B010110006)
【分類號(hào)】:F323.211
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