本文選題：新農(nóng)保　切入點(diǎn)：養(yǎng)老金替代率　出處：《安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：新農(nóng)保制度的出臺(tái),不但完善了我國(guó)的農(nóng)村社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保障體系,而且對(duì)于改善農(nóng)村居民的生活水平和促進(jìn)農(nóng)村居民的消費(fèi)具有重要意義。本文主要立足于安徽省,分別從政策層面和實(shí)證分析的角度研究安徽省新農(nóng)保的保障水平及其對(duì)居民消費(fèi)的影響,并結(jié)合分析結(jié)果提出了相關(guān)政策建議。文章首先,梳理對(duì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)影響居民消費(fèi)的文獻(xiàn)理論,國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者對(duì)此所做的相關(guān)研究主要有養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)促進(jìn)居民消費(fèi)、養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)抑制居民消費(fèi)和養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)對(duì)消費(fèi)并無(wú)顯著影響的三種不同觀點(diǎn)。文章進(jìn)一步闡述了社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)影響居民消費(fèi)的理論,具體包括凱爾斯消費(fèi)理論、生命周期假說(shuō)理論、預(yù)防性儲(chǔ)蓄理論和持久收入假說(shuō)理論,并為后面的實(shí)證分析奠定了理論基礎(chǔ)。其次,從養(yǎng)老金收支、參保情況、繳費(fèi)狀況和養(yǎng)老金保障水平四個(gè)方面詳細(xì)分析了安徽省新農(nóng)保的保障水平,得出新農(nóng)�；攫B(yǎng)老金收支不平衡、繳費(fèi)檔次較低、參保人數(shù)逐年增多、養(yǎng)老金保障水平低下的結(jié)論。再次,從消費(fèi)水平和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)兩個(gè)方面總結(jié)出安徽省農(nóng)村居民的消費(fèi)特點(diǎn)以便于更好的研究安徽省新農(nóng)保對(duì)居民消費(fèi)的影響,本文在生命周期理論模型的基礎(chǔ)上引入新農(nóng)保的基礎(chǔ)養(yǎng)老金支出這一變量,對(duì)2012——2015安徽省16個(gè)地級(jí)市的面板數(shù)據(jù)做回歸分析,基于個(gè)體固定效應(yīng)的普通面板回歸后,用PCSE對(duì)回歸系數(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤進(jìn)行了修正。研究得出,新農(nóng)保與居民消費(fèi)存在極其微弱的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。同時(shí),利用擴(kuò)展線性支出系統(tǒng)模型(Extend Linear Expenditure System,簡(jiǎn)稱“ELES”),從安徽省農(nóng)村消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的角度出發(fā),選取安徽省2004——2014年的農(nóng)村居民的消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)安徽省實(shí)施新農(nóng)保政策前后消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。通過(guò)對(duì)比發(fā)現(xiàn),新農(nóng)保實(shí)施后安徽省農(nóng)村居民的消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生了一些變化,主要表現(xiàn)在:教育、文化娛樂(lè)和醫(yī)療保健支出的需求收入彈性發(fā)生較大改變,而在衣著和食品煙酒上的需求收入彈性無(wú)明顯變化;食品煙酒、生活用品和醫(yī)療保健支出結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生較大改變;居民邊際消費(fèi)傾向較低,同樣得消費(fèi)支出水平并無(wú)明顯改善,進(jìn)一步證實(shí)了新農(nóng)保對(duì)消費(fèi)影響小的研究。這說(shuō)明新農(nóng)保政策的實(shí)施對(duì)安徽省農(nóng)村居民的消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)有影響,但是對(duì)居民的消費(fèi)支出水平?jīng)]有直接影響。文章在理論分析和實(shí)證分析的前提下,結(jié)合我國(guó)實(shí)際情況,提出了完善新農(nóng)保政策和促進(jìn)居民消費(fèi)的相關(guān)建議。建議通過(guò)提高養(yǎng)基金的統(tǒng)籌層次、提高養(yǎng)老金的替代率水平和提高新農(nóng)保的保障水平來(lái)不斷的完善新農(nóng)保制度;通過(guò)實(shí)現(xiàn)基金的保值增值、完善新農(nóng)保的各項(xiàng)機(jī)制和提高新農(nóng)保的最低繳費(fèi)水平來(lái)加強(qiáng)政府的管理責(zé)任,提升農(nóng)民對(duì)政策的信心;通過(guò)提高農(nóng)民工的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力、推動(dòng)農(nóng)村土地流轉(zhuǎn)、提高農(nóng)民的個(gè)人素養(yǎng)和技術(shù)水平以及推進(jìn)農(nóng)產(chǎn)業(yè)的戰(zhàn)略結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整增加農(nóng)產(chǎn)業(yè)收入來(lái)提高農(nóng)民的繳費(fèi)能力。
[Abstract]:The introduction of the new rural insurance system not only improves the rural social old-age security system, but also plays an important role in improving the living standards of rural residents and promoting the consumption of rural residents. From the perspective of policy and empirical analysis, this paper studies the security level of new rural insurance in Anhui Province and its impact on residents' consumption, and puts forward some relevant policy recommendations combined with the results of the analysis. Combing the literature theory on the influence of endowment insurance on residents' consumption, domestic and foreign scholars have done related research on this mainly to promote residents' consumption by endowment insurance. There are three different viewpoints that the endowment insurance inhibits the residents' consumption and the pension insurance has no significant influence on the consumption. The article further expounds the theory of the social endowment insurance's influence on the residents' consumption, including the Kelles consumption theory, the life cycle hypothesis theory, the life cycle hypothesis theory, and the life cycle hypothesis theory. The precautionary savings theory and the theory of durable income hypothesis lay a theoretical foundation for the subsequent empirical analysis. Secondly, from the perspective of pension income and expenditure, participation in insurance, This paper analyzes the security level of the new rural insurance in Anhui Province in detail from four aspects: the status of payment and the level of pension guarantee. It is concluded that the basic pension of the new rural insurance is unbalanced, the level of payment is low, and the number of people participating in the insurance increases year by year. Third, from the consumption level and consumption structure of rural residents in Anhui Province summed up the characteristics of consumption in order to facilitate a better study of the impact of new rural insurance in Anhui Province on the consumption of residents. Based on the life cycle theory model, this paper introduces the basic pension expenditure of the new rural insurance, and makes regression analysis on the panel data of 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province from 2012-2015. After the ordinary panel regression based on individual fixed effect, The standard error of regression coefficient is corrected by PCSE. It is concluded that there is a very weak negative correlation between new rural insurance and resident consumption. Based on the extended linear Linear Expenditure system ("ELES"), from the perspective of the rural consumption structure of Anhui Province, this paper makes use of the extended Linear Expenditure system. The consumption data of rural residents in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2014 were selected to analyze the changes of consumption structure before and after the implementation of the new rural insurance policy in Anhui Province. Some changes have taken place in the consumption structure of rural residents in Anhui Province since the implementation of the New Rural Insurance system, which is mainly reflected in the great changes in the elasticity of income demand for education, cultural entertainment and health care expenditure. However, the elasticity of demand income in clothing, food, tobacco and wine has not changed significantly; the structure of food, alcohol, tobacco, daily necessities and medical care expenditure has changed greatly; the marginal propensity of consumption of residents is lower, and the level of consumption expenditure has not improved significantly. It further proves that the new rural insurance has a small impact on consumption, which shows that the implementation of the new rural insurance policy has an impact on the consumption structure of rural residents in Anhui Province. However, there is no direct impact on the level of consumption expenditure of residents. Under the premise of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, the article combines with the actual situation of our country. Some suggestions are put forward to improve the new rural insurance policy and promote the residents' consumption. It is suggested that the new rural insurance system should be improved continuously by raising the overall planning level of the raising fund, raising the level of the replacement rate of pension and raising the level of the new rural insurance. By realizing the maintenance and increment of the fund, perfecting the mechanism of the new rural insurance and raising the minimum payment level of the new rural insurance, to strengthen the management responsibility of the government, to enhance the farmers' confidence in the policy, and to enhance the competitiveness of the migrant workers. To promote rural land circulation, improve farmers' personal literacy and technical level, and promote the strategic structure adjustment of agricultural industry to increase agricultural industry income to improve farmers' ability to pay fees.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F323.89;F842.67

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 范辰辰;李文;;“新農(nóng)�！比绾斡绊戅r(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)——以山東省為例[J];江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2015年01期

2 馬光榮;周廣肅;;新型農(nóng)村養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)對(duì)家庭儲(chǔ)蓄的影響:基于CFPS數(shù)據(jù)的研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2014年11期

3 劉冰;仇夢(mèng)暉;;“新農(nóng)�！庇欣谵r(nóng)村居民生活水平的改善嗎?——基于ELES模型的分析[J];湘潭大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2014年05期

4 于建華;魏欣芝;;新型農(nóng)村社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)對(duì)農(nóng)民消費(fèi)水平影響的實(shí)證分析[J];消費(fèi)經(jīng)濟(jì);2014年04期

5 鄒紅;喻開(kāi)志;李?yuàn)W蕾;;養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)和醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)家庭消費(fèi)的影響研究[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)研究;2013年11期

6 岳愛(ài);楊矗;常芳;田新;史耀疆;羅仁福;易紅梅;;新型農(nóng)村社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)對(duì)家庭日常費(fèi)用支出的影響[J];管理世界;2013年08期

7 郭媛媛;劉靈芝;;新型農(nóng)村社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度對(duì)居民消費(fèi)的影響——基于湖北省農(nóng)村居民調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證分析[J];農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)與科技;2013年05期

8 薛惠元;;新農(nóng)保能否滿足農(nóng)民的基本生活需要[J];中國(guó)人口.資源與環(huán)境;2012年10期

9 姚曉壘;虞斌;;我國(guó)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)影響居民消費(fèi)的實(shí)證研究——基于養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)改革前后的對(duì)比分析[J];浙江金融;2012年03期

10 劉遠(yuǎn)風(fēng);;新農(nóng)保擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需的實(shí)證分析[J];中國(guó)人口.資源與環(huán)境;2012年02期

，

本文編號(hào)：1562673