本文關(guān)鍵詞： 養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn) 隱性債務(wù) 精算模型 延遲退休　出處：《北方工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：我國現(xiàn)行養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度始建于1950年代。20世紀(jì)末,我國對養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度進(jìn)行改革,變現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付制為部分積累制。在制度改革的過程中,一些隱患開始顯性化,比如養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)賬戶存在空帳的情況,這是導(dǎo)致我國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度出現(xiàn)隱性債務(wù)的原因。更嚴(yán)重的是,隨著我國人口老齡化現(xiàn)象不斷加劇,隱性債務(wù)問題愈發(fā)凸顯,導(dǎo)致我國財(cái)政承擔(dān)的壓力也越來越大,嚴(yán)重影響了我國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。因此,本文首先分析了隱性債務(wù)產(chǎn)生的歷史背景,并對其測算的意義進(jìn)行了詳盡的分析。其次在充分解讀政策文件以及借鑒前人研究內(nèi)容的基礎(chǔ)上,把隱性債務(wù)的測算對象細(xì)分為"老人"和"中人",根據(jù)個(gè)體成本法推導(dǎo)出了隱性債務(wù)精算模型,為后文隱性債務(wù)規(guī)模的測算奠定了理論基礎(chǔ)。近年來,我國人口年齡分布出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重的失衡,老齡化已然成為新的社會問題,以往制定的退休年齡無法滿足現(xiàn)今的社會形勢,推遲退休年齡的問題亟待解決。延遲退休政策在一定程度上能夠有效緩解我國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)隱性債務(wù)問題,其能否順利實(shí)施與每個(gè)人的生活都息息相關(guān),筆者在結(jié)合我國國情的基礎(chǔ)上,設(shè)計(jì)出了"漸進(jìn)式"延遲退休的方案,這種延遲退休年齡的做法符合國際通行標(biāo)準(zhǔn),并運(yùn)用保險(xiǎn)精算、統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)等基本理論,模擬在延遲退休和不延遲退休的兩種情況下,我國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)的隱性債務(wù)的規(guī)模。經(jīng)過對比不難看出,實(shí)施延遲退休年齡的制度有助于減輕養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)隱性債務(wù)給國家財(cái)政帶來的壓力。最后,在依據(jù)論文結(jié)果以及尊重我國國情的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了合理化建議。
[Abstract]:The current old-age insurance system in our country was established in the 1950s. At the end of the 20th century, China reformed the old-age insurance system and realized the pay-as-you-go system as a partial accumulation system. Some hidden dangers began to manifest, such as the existence of pension insurance account empty account, which is the reason for the emergence of hidden debt in China's pension insurance system. More seriously, with the aging of the population in China, the phenomenon continues to intensify. The problem of recessive debt is becoming more and more prominent, which leads to more and more financial pressure, which seriously affects the sustainable development of China's pension insurance system. Therefore, this paper first analyzes the historical background of the emergence of hidden debt. And the significance of its calculation is analyzed in detail. Secondly, on the basis of fully interpreting the policy documents and drawing on the previous research, the object of calculating hidden debt is divided into "the elderly" and "the middle person". Based on the individual cost method, this paper deduces the actuarial model of implicit debt, which lays a theoretical foundation for the later calculation of the scale of implicit debt. In recent years, there is a serious imbalance in the age distribution of the population in China. Aging has become a new social problem, the retirement age set in the past can not meet the current social situation. The problem of delaying retirement age needs to be solved urgently. To a certain extent, the delay retirement policy can effectively alleviate the implicit debt problem of pension insurance in China, and whether it can be implemented smoothly is closely related to the life of everyone. Based on the national conditions of our country, the author designs a "progressive" scheme of delayed retirement, which accords with the international standard, and applies the basic theories of actuarial insurance, statistics and so on. In the case of delayed retirement and non-delayed retirement, the scale of implicit debt of China's pension insurance is simulated. The comparison is not difficult to see. The implementation of the system of delayed retirement age will help to alleviate the pressure on the national finance caused by the hidden debt of the pension insurance. Finally, based on the results of the paper and the respect for the national conditions of our country, the reasonable suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北方工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F842.67;F323.89

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