本文關(guān)鍵詞：四川省糧食生產(chǎn)時(shí)空變化特征及產(chǎn)量影響因素研究　出處：《西南大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 糧食生產(chǎn) 空間自相關(guān) 重心移動(dòng) 灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析 四川省

【摘要】：糧食安全是關(guān)系我國國計(jì)民生的大事,從2004年開始,中央一號文件持續(xù)關(guān)注三農(nóng)問題。四川省地處我國西南腹地,其糧食安全對維持四川省及西南地區(qū)社會(huì)穩(wěn)定具有重要作用。且經(jīng)過多年發(fā)展,四川省糧食產(chǎn)量種植結(jié)構(gòu)及糧食產(chǎn)量空間分布狀況發(fā)生變化,對其糧食生產(chǎn)時(shí)空格局變化情況及糧食產(chǎn)量影響因素進(jìn)行分析,具有重要的理論及現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文利用1997年 2015年四川省糧食總產(chǎn)量、主要糧食作物產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù),研究了四川省糧食總產(chǎn)量及種植結(jié)構(gòu)變化情況,并用縣域糧食產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù),研究四川省糧食產(chǎn)量空間集聚與分散狀態(tài),在此基礎(chǔ)上,研究該段時(shí)間內(nèi)四川省糧食產(chǎn)量重心移動(dòng)情況。從國家政策、農(nóng)民種糧投入—產(chǎn)出效益、農(nóng)業(yè)科技水平、自然災(zāi)害4個(gè)方面選取16個(gè)指標(biāo),采用主成分分析法、灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析法對這16個(gè)指標(biāo)對糧食產(chǎn)量的影響程度進(jìn)行度量,主要結(jié)果如下:(1)1997年 2015年,四川省糧食產(chǎn)量總體平穩(wěn)。1997年 1999年、2002年 2012年為四川省糧食產(chǎn)量增長階段;2000年 2001年、2013年 2014年為糧食產(chǎn)量降低階段。(2)1997年 2015年,四川省糧食作物種植結(jié)構(gòu)出現(xiàn)了多次變化,稻谷產(chǎn)量呈下降趨勢,但一直為四川省最主要糧食作物,小麥產(chǎn)量所占比重逐年下降,玉米、薯類所占比重呈上升趨勢,且玉米增長趨勢較快。(3)全局空間Moran's I指數(shù)均為正數(shù),且基本介于0.545 0.599之間,四川省糧食產(chǎn)量空間分布存在顯著集聚效應(yīng);高 高聚集區(qū)主要分布在四川盆地東北部及中部各市縣,逐漸由單個(gè)高值中心縮小至兩個(gè)小范圍高值中心,覆蓋面積不斷減少,低 低類型區(qū)主要分布在四川西部甘孜州、阿壩州,且該類型區(qū)范圍逐漸向四川南部樂山市、涼山州、攀枝花市擴(kuò)展;1997年 2015年,四川省糧食重心均在樂至縣境內(nèi),基本呈“南下東進(jìn)”趨勢。(4)根據(jù)主成分分析法評價(jià)結(jié)果,各因素對糧食產(chǎn)量影響由強(qiáng)到弱依次為氮肥施用量、磷肥施用量、經(jīng)濟(jì)作物占農(nóng)作物播種面積比例、鉀肥施用量、復(fù)合肥施用量、種糧勞動(dòng)力、城鎮(zhèn)化率、農(nóng)村用電量、水災(zāi)受災(zāi)面積、農(nóng)業(yè)支出占四川省財(cái)政支出比例、糧食收購價(jià)格指數(shù)、農(nóng)村居民人均純收入、機(jī)耕面積、有效灌溉面積、農(nóng)民人均生產(chǎn)費(fèi)用支出占人均支出比重。(5)將研究時(shí)段劃分為1997年 2000年、2001年 2005年、2006年 2010年、2011年 2015年四個(gè)研究時(shí)段,運(yùn)用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析法,分析各時(shí)段各因子與糧食產(chǎn)量灰色關(guān)聯(lián)序,從關(guān)聯(lián)度強(qiáng)弱來看,各時(shí)段,各因素對糧食產(chǎn)量關(guān)聯(lián)度以強(qiáng)關(guān)聯(lián)度為主,無弱關(guān)聯(lián)度。從整體來看,1997年 2015年,農(nóng)業(yè)政策與四川省糧食產(chǎn)量關(guān)聯(lián)度整體呈增強(qiáng)趨勢;種糧投入 產(chǎn)出效益,對糧食產(chǎn)量變化趨勢不明顯;農(nóng)業(yè)科技水平對糧食產(chǎn)量的影響總體呈現(xiàn)降低趨勢;旱災(zāi)受災(zāi)面積、水災(zāi)受災(zāi)面積與糧食產(chǎn)量灰色關(guān)聯(lián)序一直排在較后次序,但其影響不可忽視。
[Abstract]:Food security is a major event related to the national economy and people's livelihood in China. Since 2004, the first document of the Central Committee has been continuously concerned about the issue of agriculture, countryside and farmers. Sichuan Province is located in the hinterland of southwest China. Its food security plays an important role in maintaining social stability in Sichuan Province and Southwest China. After years of development, the structure of grain production and the spatial distribution of grain yield in Sichuan Province have changed. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to analyze the changes of temporal and spatial pattern of grain production and the influencing factors of grain yield. This paper makes use of the total grain yield of Sichuan Province from 1997 to 2015. The change of total grain yield and planting structure in Sichuan Province was studied, and the spatial concentration and dispersion of grain yield in Sichuan Province were studied by using county grain yield data. To study the shift of grain yield center in Sichuan province during that period, 16 indexes were selected from four aspects: national policy, farmers' input-output benefit, agricultural science and technology level and natural disaster. Principal component analysis and grey relational analysis were used to measure the influence of these 16 indexes on grain yield. The main results were as follows: 1997 to 2015. The grain yield of Sichuan Province is stable on the whole. 1997 to 1999, 2002 to 2002 is the stage of grain yield growth in Sichuan Province. From 2000 to 2001, 2013 to 2013 was the stage of grain yield reduction. Rice yield showed a downward trend, but has been the most important food crops in Sichuan Province, the proportion of wheat yield decreased year by year, corn, potato accounted for the proportion of increasing trend. The global Moran's I index is positive, and it is between 0.545 and 0.599. The spatial distribution of grain yield in Sichuan Province has significant agglomeration effect. The high concentration area is mainly distributed in the northeast of Sichuan basin and the cities and counties in the central part of Sichuan basin, and gradually reduces from a single high value center to two small high value centers, and the coverage area is decreasing continuously. The low-grade and low-type areas are mainly distributed in Ganzi and Aba prefectures in western Sichuan, and the range of these regions is gradually expanding to Leshan, Liangshan and Panzhihua in southern Sichuan. From 1997 to 2015, the grain barycenter of Sichuan Province was all in Lezhi County, basically showing the trend of "southward moving eastward". 4) according to the results of principal component analysis (PCA), the grain barycenter of Sichuan Province was evaluated. The effects of various factors on grain yield from strong to weak are nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer, cash crops in the proportion of crop sown area, potassium fertilizer application rate, compound fertilizer application rate, grain labor force, urbanization rate. Rural electricity consumption, flood disaster area, agricultural expenditure accounts for the proportion of fiscal expenditure in Sichuan Province, grain purchase price index, per capita net income of rural residents, machine farming area, effective irrigation area. The study period is divided into 1997 and 2000, 2001 to 2001, #date鈪，

本文編號：1411977