本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于MAS-LCM耦合模型的孟連縣土地利用時(shí)空變化模擬預(yù)測(cè)研究　出處：《云南大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 多智能體系統(tǒng)模型(MAS) Logistic-CA-Markov模型(LCM) 孟連縣 土地利用時(shí)空變化 模擬預(yù)測(cè)

【摘要】：隨著人類活動(dòng)范圍的擴(kuò)展,特別是不合理人類活動(dòng)導(dǎo)致的土地利用變化,不利于土地系統(tǒng)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。為了更好地引導(dǎo)人類行為,改變不合理的土地利用活動(dòng),對(duì)土地利用模擬預(yù)測(cè)研究就顯的很重要。孟連縣近十多年來(lái)人工經(jīng)濟(jì)園林種植面積快速增長(zhǎng),取代了相當(dāng)面積的耕地和天然林地,這些經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的干擾使孟連縣土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)和空間布局發(fā)生了劇烈的改變,引發(fā)更多的經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)和生態(tài)過(guò)程的變化。因此,有必要模擬預(yù)測(cè)孟連縣的土地利用時(shí)空變化,以便積極應(yīng)對(duì)可能出現(xiàn)的問(wèn)題。本研究以大面積人工經(jīng)濟(jì)園林種植區(qū)孟連縣為研究對(duì)象,采用遙感數(shù)據(jù)、社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)、調(diào)查訪談問(wèn)卷數(shù)據(jù),分析孟連縣土地利用變化特征。在此基礎(chǔ)上,采用Logistic-CA-Markov模型和MAS-LCM耦合模型,以孟連縣2015年土地利用現(xiàn)狀為基期年數(shù)據(jù),模擬預(yù)測(cè)孟連縣2025年土地利用時(shí)空變化,并對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析和比較。結(jié)論如下：(1)土地利用變化特征。①孟連縣近10年土地利用以林地、耕地和經(jīng)濟(jì)園地為主,10年間林地、耕地和水域面積減少,經(jīng)濟(jì)園地、建設(shè)用地和其他用地面積增加,其中林地面積減少最多,經(jīng)濟(jì)園地面積增加最多。②10年間孟連縣土地利用類型流向主要發(fā)生在林地、耕地和經(jīng)濟(jì)園地之間。(2)采用二元logistic回歸方法確定孟連縣土地利用時(shí)空變化的驅(qū)動(dòng)因子。耕地、建設(shè)用地、林地、經(jīng)濟(jì)園地、其他用地和水域的ROC值都大于0.7,表明所選的坡度、坡向、海拔、距離河流距離、鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量、距離主要道路距離、距離農(nóng)村居民點(diǎn)距離、距離鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)距離和距離縣城距離9個(gè)驅(qū)動(dòng)因子分析各地類空間分布適宜性概率是合適的。(3)基于Logistic-CA-Markov模型的2025年孟連縣土地利用時(shí)空變化模擬預(yù)測(cè)。① Logistic-CA-Markov模型模擬精度的有效性檢驗(yàn),得到的Kappa系數(shù)是0.8598,模型模擬的準(zhǔn)確性很高,模型可以使用。②孟連縣2025年土地利用時(shí)空變化模擬預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果與2015年土地利用現(xiàn)狀相比,耕地、林地和水域面積減少,經(jīng)濟(jì)園地、建設(shè)用地和其他用地面積增加,尤其是經(jīng)濟(jì)園地快速擴(kuò)張；孟連縣西部的勐馬鎮(zhèn)、公信鄉(xiāng)和富巖鄉(xiāng)大量的耕地和林地被占用,預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果與孟連縣土地自然社會(huì)條件影響下的土地利用變化趨勢(shì)一致。(4)基于MAS-LCM耦合模型的2025年孟連縣土地利用時(shí)空變化模擬預(yù)測(cè)。①在MAS模型構(gòu)建中,耕地、建設(shè)用地和林地主要受到基本農(nóng)田保護(hù)區(qū)、建設(shè)用地空間管制分區(qū)和林地利用保護(hù)規(guī)劃三個(gè)土地利用政策影響,經(jīng)濟(jì)園地近5年主要由耕地流入,受農(nóng)戶種植行為影響最為明顯。設(shè)定農(nóng)業(yè)部門(mén)、國(guó)土部門(mén)、林業(yè)部門(mén)和農(nóng)戶四類土地利用智能體,農(nóng)業(yè)部門(mén)、國(guó)土部門(mén)和林業(yè)部門(mén)以相關(guān)規(guī)劃為行為規(guī)則,分別對(duì)應(yīng)選擇耕地、建設(shè)用地和林地的種植行為,農(nóng)戶以農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量和種植經(jīng)濟(jì)效益高低為行為規(guī)則,判斷經(jīng)濟(jì)園地由耕地轉(zhuǎn)入的種植行為。②孟連縣2025年土地利用時(shí)空模擬預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果與2015年土地利用現(xiàn)狀相比,經(jīng)濟(jì)園地、耕地、建設(shè)用地和其他用地面積在增加,林地和水域面積在減少,基本農(nóng)田和二級(jí)保護(hù)林地得到保護(hù),建設(shè)用地在規(guī)劃設(shè)定范圍內(nèi)有序發(fā)展；土地利用變化在空間上主要體現(xiàn)在勐馬鎮(zhèn)、公信鄉(xiāng)、富巖鄉(xiāng)和娜允鎮(zhèn)四個(gè)地方,預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果符合孟連縣土地自然社會(huì)條件影響下和地利用主體行為選擇下的土地利用時(shí)空變化趨勢(shì),與實(shí)際狀況更相符。(5)兩種模型模擬預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果對(duì)比。MAS-LCM耦合模型模擬預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果與Logistic-CA-Markov模型模擬預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果相比,耕地和林地面積增加,建設(shè)用地和經(jīng)濟(jì)園地面積減少,其他用地和水域面積幾乎相同。在MAS-LCM耦合模型模擬預(yù)測(cè)下,經(jīng)濟(jì)園地種植面積增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì)放緩,建設(shè)用地也在有序穩(wěn)步發(fā)展,特別是基本農(nóng)田和二級(jí)林地保護(hù)區(qū)避免了被經(jīng)濟(jì)園地和建設(shè)用地占用,說(shuō)明MAS-LCM耦合模型的模擬預(yù)測(cè)比Logistic-CA-Markov模型的模擬預(yù)測(cè)更有利于孟連縣土地可持續(xù)發(fā)展。同時(shí)也說(shuō)明在Logistic-CA-Markov模型基礎(chǔ)上,通過(guò)基本農(nóng)田保護(hù)區(qū)、建設(shè)用地空間管制分區(qū)和林地利用保護(hù)區(qū)三種政策的設(shè)定,特別是農(nóng)戶以農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量和種植經(jīng)濟(jì)效益高低選擇經(jīng)濟(jì)園地種植行為,土地利用模擬預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果更符合孟連縣現(xiàn)實(shí)狀況。MAS-LCM耦合模型在土地利用的自然社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)背景環(huán)境下,闡明土地利用主體對(duì)環(huán)境反應(yīng)機(jī)制,科學(xué)分析土地利用主體行為,把影響土地利用主體行為的人文因子添加到模型中,符合土地利用變化的自然性、社會(huì)性和人文性特征,對(duì)提高模型模擬預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果的科學(xué)性有重要作用。
[Abstract]:With the expansion of human activities, especially the unreasonable human activities lead to the change of land use, is not conducive to the sustainable development of land system. In order to better guide human behavior, change the unreasonable land use activity is very important for land use simulation and prediction of explicit. In Menglian County, nearly ten years of artificial economic landscape planting the area of rapid growth, instead of a considerable area of arable land and natural forest, interfere with the economic activity to Menglian County land use structure and spatial layout of a dramatic change, lead to more economic, social and ecological change process. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the spatio-temporal change of land use in Menglian County, in order to actively respond to possible problems. In this study, a large area of artificial economic landscape planting area in Menglian County as the research object, using remote sensing data and social economic statistical data, survey interview On the questionnaire data, the analysis of land use change characteristics of Meng Lian county. On this basis, using Logistic-CA-Markov model and MAS-LCM model, with the status of land use in Meng Lian County in 2015 for the base year data, simulation and prediction of spatial and temporal changes of land use in Meng Lian County in 2025, and the forecast results are analyzed and compared. The conclusions are as follows: (1) land use the variation characteristics of Meng Lian County in recent 10 years of land use in woodland, farmland and garden land based economy, 10 years, cultivated land and water area decreased, increasing the economic field, land and other construction land area, the forest area decreased most economic garden area increased most. The land use types to 10 years of Meng Lian county mainly occurs in woodland, between cultivated land and economic field. (2) by two yuan logistic to determine the Meng Lian county land use change in the driving factor regression method. The cultivated land, construction land, Economic forest, garden, other land and water ROC value is greater than 0.7, showed that the selected slope, slope, elevation, distance from the river, the township agricultural labor force, from the main road distance, distance of rural residential distance, distance and distance from the County Township from 9 driving factor analysis suitability probability the space distribution is appropriate. (3) simulation and prediction of temporal and spatial variation of land use in 2025 in Menglian County, based on the Logistic-CA-Markov model. The validity of Logistic-CA-Markov model simulation accuracy, 0.8598 Kappa coefficients, the accuracy of model simulation is high. The model can be used in Menglian County, 2025 land use change simulation results with the 2015 land use status compared to farmland, woodland and water area, economic field, increase land and other land area construction, especially in the economic field quickly Expansion; Menglian County West of mengma Town, township public trust and rich Rock Township large amount of arable land and forest land is occupied, the prediction results and effects of land natural and social conditions in Menglian County, favorable land use change trend. (4) land in 2025 in Menglian County MAS-LCM coupling model with spatial variation in the prediction based on simulation. MAS model, farmland, construction land and forest land is mainly affected by the basic farmland protection areas and construction land space control zoning and forest conservation and utilization planning three land use policy, economic field for nearly 5 years, mainly by land inflow, by farmers planting effect is most obvious. Set the Department of agriculture, Department of homeland. The forestry departments and farmers, four types of land use agent, the Department of agriculture, Department of land and forestry departments related to planning for the corresponding selection rules, cultivated land, planting behavior and woodland construction, farmers in agricultural The amount of labor and planting industry in economic level as a code of conduct, to judge the behavior of economic field by planting cultivated land into. The 2025 Menglian County land use spatio-temporal simulation results and 2015 land use status in the economic field, land, and other land uses in the area to increase the construction of forest and water area decreased in basic farmland and two protected forest protection, set construction land within the scope of planning and orderly development; land use change in space is mainly reflected in the mengma Town, township public trust, Fu Yan Xiang and Nayun town four place, the prediction result accords with the land use change trend under the choice of subject behavior with influence in Menglian County the land of natural and social conditions and, more consistent with the actual situation. (5) two kinds of model prediction results and Logistic-CA-Markov model comparison of.MAS-LCM coupled model simulation results The prediction results compared to cultivated land and woodland increased, reduce the area and economic construction land, other land and water area is almost the same. In the simulation and prediction of MAS-LCM coupling model, economic growth slowed the garden planting area, construction land in the orderly and steady development, especially basic farmland and forestland protection level two to avoid the area occupied land economic garden and construction, which shows the simulation prediction of MAS-LCM coupling model is more than the simulation prediction Logistic-CA-Markov model to Menglian County land sustainable development. At the same time also shows that based on the Logistic-CA-Markov model, the basic farmland protection area, construction land space control zoning and forest land reserve policy set three in particular, the number of agricultural labor and planting farmers to the economic level of economic garden planting behavior, simulation and prediction of land use. The fruit is more in line with the actual situation in Menglian County land use.MAS-LCM model in the background of natural and social economic environment, to clarify the mechanism of reaction of land use subject to the environment, scientific analysis of land use behavior, the human factors affecting land use behavior is added to the model in accordance with the land use change of natural, social and cultural the characteristics of the simulation, scientific prediction results have an important role to improve the model.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F301.24
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本文編號(hào)：1380030