本文關鍵詞：定居工程實施背景下牧民的生計風險及應對策略——以新疆阿勒泰地區(qū)為例　出處：《北京師范大學學報(自然科學版)》2017年02期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關文章： 定居工程 阿勒泰地區(qū) 生計風險 應對策略 生計資本 Probit回歸模型

【摘要】：阿勒泰地區(qū)是全國和新疆自治區(qū)的重要牧區(qū)之一,在退耕還林(草)工程、牧民定居工程等農(nóng)牧業(yè)重大政策實施過程中,當?shù)剞r(nóng)牧戶也面臨各種生產(chǎn)生活壓力,暴露于各種風險之中.本文通過對阿勒泰地區(qū)牧民進行隨機入戶調(diào)查,探討了牧民面臨的主要生計風險及其應對策略,并采用二元Probit回歸模型分析了影響牧民風險應對策略選擇的主要因素.結果表明:1)牧民面臨的主要風險問題為市場風險、就業(yè)風險、子女教育/婚姻風險、醫(yī)療風險等,牧民最擔心的生計風險為子女教育/婚姻問題,其次是醫(yī)療風險.2)牧民最常采用的風險應對策略是政府救濟,也會采取尋求他人幫助、社會保險、出售資產(chǎn)、外出務工等應對策略,最少采用的應對策略是孩子輟學.3)金融資本、人力資本是影響牧民風險應對策略選擇的主要因素,物質(zhì)資本、自然資本次之,社會資本影響最弱.從提高牧民生計風險抵御能力角度出發(fā),提出了促進牧民穩(wěn)定定居的政策建議.
[Abstract]:Altay region is one of the important pastoral areas in the whole country and Xinjiang Autonomous region. In the process of implementing major policies such as returning cropland to forest (grass) project and herdsman settlement project, local farmers and pastoralists are also faced with various kinds of production and living pressure. This paper discusses the main livelihood risks faced by herdsmen and their coping strategies through a random household survey of herdsmen in Altay area. The main factors influencing herdsmen's risk coping strategies are analyzed by using binary Probit regression model. The results show that the main risk problems facing herdsmen are market risk and employment risk. Children's education / marriage risk, medical risk and so on. The livelihood risk of herdsmen is children's education / marriage, followed by medical risk. 2) the most frequently used risk coping strategy is government relief. They also use coping strategies such as seeking help from others, social insurance, selling assets, and migrant workers. The least used coping strategies are children dropping out of school. 3) Financial capital. Human capital is the main factor to influence herdsmen's risk coping strategy choice, material capital, natural capital is the second, social capital is the weakest. From the point of view of improving herdsmen's livelihood risk resistance. The policy suggestion of promoting herdsmen's stable settlement is put forward.
【作者單位】： 北京師范大學地理科學學部資源學院;
【基金】：國家科技支撐計劃課題資助項目(2014BAC15B04) 國家自然科學基金資助項目(40871135)
【分類號】：F323.6
【正文快照】： “逐水草而居”“四季轉(zhuǎn)場放牧”是游牧民族傳統(tǒng)生產(chǎn)生活方式的真實寫照.這種自然經(jīng)濟形式具有游移、單一、脆弱的特點,易遭受自然災害特別是極端氣候影響,使牧民暴露于周圍的生計風險之中[1-4].目前的研究從風險與脆弱性[5-6]、可持續(xù)生計[7-8]等角度對農(nóng)戶所面臨的生計風險

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