本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于CPM-RBF模型的區(qū)域土地生態(tài)安全預(yù)警研究　出處：《中國地質(zhì)大學(北京)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 土地生態(tài)安全 預(yù)警 指標體系 CPM-RBF模型

【摘要】：健康的土地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)是維系區(qū)域生態(tài)安全的重要因素,開展區(qū)域土地生態(tài)安全預(yù)警研究,分析土地生態(tài)安全警情演變狀況,是新形勢下建設(shè)生態(tài)文明建設(shè)現(xiàn)實需要,也是進一步完善土地生態(tài)安全研究的理論需求。為此,本文以山西省臨汾市堯都區(qū)為研究區(qū)域,以土地生態(tài)安全相關(guān)理論為理論指導,采用突變級數(shù)法和徑向基函數(shù)神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型開展了區(qū)域土地生態(tài)安全預(yù)警研究。本文主要開展了以下幾個方面內(nèi)容的研究:(1)對國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究進行綜述性介紹與回顧,探討不同研究內(nèi)容與技術(shù)方法的側(cè)重點,明晰本文研究的起點;(2)分析研究區(qū)土地生態(tài)安全現(xiàn)狀,指出區(qū)域土地生態(tài)安全面臨的形勢;(3)在分析“壓力—狀態(tài)—響應(yīng)”(PSR)框架模型和“自然—經(jīng)濟—社會”(NES)框架模型各自特點的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建基于PSR-NES框架模型的區(qū)域土地生態(tài)安全預(yù)警指標體系;(4)引入常見突變模型創(chuàng)建了研究區(qū)土地生態(tài)安全警情分析模型,運用突變級數(shù)法對土地生態(tài)安全警情變化進行分析;(5)在Matlab中直接調(diào)用徑向基函數(shù),運用RBF神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)對區(qū)域土地生態(tài)安全警情演變趨勢進行預(yù)測。通過對以上內(nèi)容進行研究,得出以下結(jié)論:(1)經(jīng)濟和社會因素是造成區(qū)域土地生態(tài)安全動態(tài)演變的主要因素;(2)PSR-NES框架模型的區(qū)域土地生態(tài)安全預(yù)警指標體系較為全面且有針對性,有助于判斷區(qū)域土地生態(tài)安全真實狀態(tài)以及發(fā)現(xiàn)土地生態(tài)安全演變過程中存在的問題;(3)突變級數(shù)法含義較為明晰,可操作性強,減少預(yù)警過程中人為主觀性影響,應(yīng)用于土地生態(tài)安全預(yù)警研究是一個較好的嘗試;(4)RBF神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)具有訓練速度快、能收斂到全局最優(yōu)點等特點,能夠不斷的學習確定徑向基函數(shù)的最優(yōu)參數(shù),提高警情預(yù)測精度;(5)構(gòu)建了土地生態(tài)安全預(yù)警的CPM-RBF模型,整個過程邏輯性強、思路清晰。本文的創(chuàng)新點是將突變理論運用到土地生態(tài)安全預(yù)警研究中,運用突變級數(shù)法對土地生態(tài)安全警情變化進行了分析,運用RBF神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)對警情演變趨勢進行預(yù)測,但是該研究還存在一些有待改進之處,預(yù)警指標體系有待進一步優(yōu)化,警情等級劃分標準需要進一步探討,這些都有待后續(xù)研究進一步完善,本文僅僅為區(qū)域土地生態(tài)安全預(yù)警研究在方法上提供了一種新的思路。
[Abstract]:Healthy land ecosystem is an important factor to maintain regional ecological security. It is the realistic need of constructing ecological civilization under the new situation, and is also the theoretical demand to further improve the study of land ecological security. Therefore, this paper takes Yaodu District, Linfen City, Shanxi Province as the research area. It is guided by the theory of land ecological security. Using the catastrophe series method and the radial basis function neural network model, the early warning study of regional land ecological security is carried out. The related research at home and abroad is reviewed and reviewed. The emphasis of different research contents and technical methods is discussed, and the starting point of this study is clarified. 2) analyzing the present situation of land ecological security in the research area and pointing out the situation that the regional land ecological security is facing; 3) based on the analysis of the characteristics of the "pressure-state-response" (PSR) framework model and the "natural-economic-social" (NES) framework model. Constructing the early warning index system of regional land ecological security based on PSR-NES framework model; 4) introducing the common catastrophe model to establish the analysis model of the land ecological security in the study area, and analyzing the change of the land ecological security alarm by using the catastrophe series method. 5) the radial basis function is called directly in Matlab, and RBF neural network is used to predict the evolution trend of regional land ecological security. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) Economic and social factors are the main factors that cause the dynamic evolution of regional land ecological security; The early warning index system of regional land ecological security based on PSR-NES framework model is comprehensive and targeted. It is helpful to judge the real state of regional land ecological security and to find out the problems existing in the evolution of land ecological security. (3) the sudden change series method has a clear meaning and strong maneuverability, so it is a good attempt to reduce the human subjectivity in the early warning process and to apply it to the study of land ecological security early warning. The RBF neural network has the characteristics of fast training speed, converging to the global optimum and so on. It can continuously learn to determine the optimal parameters of the radial basis function and improve the prediction accuracy of the warning situation. 5) the CPM-RBF model of land ecological security warning is constructed, the whole process is logical and the idea is clear. The innovation of this paper is to apply the catastrophe theory to the study of land ecological security early warning. The sudden change series method is used to analyze the changes of land ecological security alarm situation, and the RBF neural network is used to predict the trend of police situation evolution. However, there are still some problems to be improved in this study. The early warning index system needs to be further optimized, and the criteria for classification of police situation grades need to be further explored, all of which need to be further improved in the follow-up study. This paper only provides a new way for the study of early warning of regional land ecological security.
【學位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(北京)
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F301;X171.1

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 劉慶;陳利根;舒幫榮;胡雁娟;;長株潭城市群土地生態(tài)安全動態(tài)評價研究[J];長江流域資源與環(huán)境;2010年10期

2 代路;雷國平;姜博;袁兆華;張慧;;基于生態(tài)經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)的佳木斯市耕地質(zhì)量預(yù)警分析[J];東北農(nóng)業(yè)大學學報(社會科學版);2010年02期

3 李明月;賴笑娟;;基于BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)方法的城市土地生態(tài)安全評價——以廣州市為例[J];經(jīng)濟地理;2011年02期

4 鄧愛珍;陳美球;林建平;;鄱陽湖區(qū)土地生態(tài)安全評價[J];江西農(nóng)業(yè)大學學報;2006年05期

5 高奇;師學義;王子凌;李海明;;基于PSR-FUZZY模型的土地利用總體規(guī)劃實施評價研究[J];江西農(nóng)業(yè)大學學報;2013年02期

6 李志剛,劉曉春;中國的生態(tài)安全問題[J];生態(tài)經(jīng)濟;2002年08期

7 李靜;李子君;呂建樹;;聊城市土地生態(tài)安全評價[J];水土保持通報;2011年02期

8 李中才;劉林德;孫玉峰;崔金榮;;基于PSR方法的區(qū)域生態(tài)安全評價[J];生態(tài)學報;2010年23期

9 伊燕平;盧文喜;張耘;蘆貴君;王大中;洪德法;;基于徑向基函數(shù)神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的地下水數(shù)值模擬模型的替代模型研究[J];水土保持研究;2012年04期

10 李智國;楊子生;;中國土地生態(tài)安全研究進展[J];中國安全科學學報;2007年12期

，

本文編號：1356639