【摘要】：醫(yī)藥行業(yè)是影響國民生活的重要產(chǎn)業(yè)，是培育戰(zhàn)略性新興產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵領(lǐng)域。經(jīng)歷“十一五”期間，我國醫(yī)藥產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展迅速，在保護和促進人民身體健康、應(yīng)對自然災(zāi)害、促進經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展等方面都做出了重要的貢獻。隨著工信部2012年發(fā)布的《醫(yī)藥工業(yè)“十二五”發(fā)展規(guī)劃》，新型藥用包裝材料將作為新五年時期重點發(fā)展領(lǐng)域之一，醫(yī)藥行業(yè)將迎來更大的發(fā)展機遇。在此政策引導(dǎo)下，ZH公司為克服自身存在的問題，將進行投資建設(shè)藥用包裝桶項目。 首先對藥用包裝項目進行了概況介紹。從公司基本情況、財務(wù)狀況和現(xiàn)階段存在的問題出發(fā)引出投資建設(shè)藥用包裝項目的背景，對該項目進行基本情況介紹，分析了該項目投資建設(shè)的重要意義。 然后通過對藥用包裝桶的年需求量進行預(yù)測，分為定量預(yù)測法和定性預(yù)測法兩類。通過對兩類方法的比較，采用管理人員預(yù)測法對公司未來10年藥用包裝桶的需求量進行了估計。在此基礎(chǔ)上，對生產(chǎn)線年產(chǎn)能力進行了設(shè)計；然后根據(jù)擬定的生產(chǎn)規(guī)模、投資方案預(yù)測出原始投資總規(guī)模，得出原始總投資。結(jié)合原材料、人工費用、水電費、廠房設(shè)備折舊費等分別計算出兩種規(guī)格的單位變動生產(chǎn)成本和單位固定生產(chǎn)成本，將單位生產(chǎn)成本進行匯總得到單位變動成本。通過對項目融資和公司融資的比較分析，文中選擇公司融資方式。根據(jù)醫(yī)藥行業(yè)上市公司資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率情況，將資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率控制在20%以內(nèi)計算最大銀行貸款限額。結(jié)合公司實際情況，本次項目投入全部來源于自有資金。 最后對該項目進行了財務(wù)、盈虧平衡和風(fēng)險分析。財務(wù)分析中使用折現(xiàn)率15.92%，分別計算出該項目的凈現(xiàn)值、內(nèi)含報酬率、靜態(tài)投資回收期。盈虧平衡分析從會計盈虧和財務(wù)盈虧兩個角度展開。風(fēng)險分析著重分析了項目投資過程中預(yù)期會遇到的各類風(fēng)險，對風(fēng)險進行識別和分析，，并針對每一種風(fēng)險提出相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險應(yīng)對策略。
[Abstract]:Pharmaceutical industry is an important industry affecting national life and a key area to cultivate strategic emerging industries. During the "11th Five-Year Plan" period, China's pharmaceutical industry has developed rapidly and made important contributions in protecting and promoting the health of the people, coping with natural disasters, and promoting economic and social development. With the "12th Five-Year Plan" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2012, the new medicinal packaging materials will be one of the key development fields in the new five years, and the pharmaceutical industry will welcome greater development opportunities. Under the guidance of this policy, in order to overcome its own problems, the company will invest in the construction of medicinal packaging barrels project. First of all, the medical packaging items were introduced. Based on the basic situation of the company, the financial situation and the existing problems at the present stage, the background of the investment and construction of the medicinal packaging project is derived, the basic situation of the project is introduced, and the importance of the investment and construction of the project is analyzed. Then, the annual demand of medicinal packaging barrels is predicted, which is divided into two categories: quantitative forecasting and qualitative forecasting. Based on the comparison of the two methods, the demand for pharmaceutical packaging barrels in the next 10 years was estimated by using the management forecasting method. On this basis, the annual production capacity of the production line is designed, and then the total original investment scale is predicted according to the planned production scale, and the original total investment is obtained. Combined with raw materials, labor costs, utilities and depreciation costs of plant and equipment, the unit variable production cost and the unit fixed production cost are calculated respectively, and the unit variable cost is obtained by summarizing the unit production cost. Through the comparative analysis of project financing and corporate financing, the paper chooses the way of corporate financing. According to the asset-liability ratio of the listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry, the maximum bank loan limit should be calculated within 20 percent of the asset-liability ratio. Combined with the actual situation of the company, the project input all from its own funds. Finally, the financial, break-even and risk analysis of the project are carried out. In financial analysis, the discount rate of 15.92 is used to calculate the net present value of the project, including the rate of return, and the recovery period of the static investment. Profit and loss balance analysis from accounting profit and loss and financial profit and loss two angles. Risk analysis focuses on the analysis of all kinds of risks expected to be encountered in the process of project investment, identifies and analyzes the risks, and puts forward corresponding risk coping strategies for each kind of risk.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.72;F406.7

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前4條

1 頡茂華;薛志麗;王崴;;資本成本管理會計應(yīng)用研究[J];財會通訊;2012年10期

2 楊晶;;折現(xiàn)率與價值評估問題探析[J];中國管理信息化;2013年01期

3 孔德財;袁汝華;;江蘇沿海開發(fā)項目投融資模式研究[J];水利經(jīng)濟;2011年02期

4 陳波;張英;;基于灰色模型的湖北省物流需求預(yù)測[J];物流工程與管理;2011年06期

本文編號：2236701