本文選題：上海合作組織 + 雙邊貿(mào)易成本測算�。� 參考：《新疆財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：在傳統(tǒng)貿(mào)易理論模型中,貿(mào)易成本這一變量一直都被假定為外生變量,并被排除在基本理論模型之外。隨著國際貿(mào)易理論不斷革新,作為國際貿(mào)易是否發(fā)生的核心影響因素,貿(mào)易成本受到越來越高的重視,被廣泛采納與運用到相關(guān)研究領(lǐng)域中去。上海合作組織(簡稱上合組織或SCO)自成以來,對穩(wěn)定區(qū)域內(nèi)安全環(huán)境,推動成員國投資貿(mào)易便利化,激發(fā)區(qū)域內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)合作潛力作出了重大貢獻(xiàn)。隨著全球?qū)I(yè)化分工程度不斷提升,上合組織進(jìn)一步加強區(qū)內(nèi)經(jīng)貿(mào)合作也是勢在必行。本文希望通過對中國與上合組織成員國雙邊貿(mào)易成本進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)研究,梳理影響雙邊貿(mào)易成本的相關(guān)因素,能夠提高雙邊交易效率,降低雙邊貿(mào)易成本,釋放經(jīng)貿(mào)合作潛力,推動上合組織向更加開放、更加自由和聯(lián)系更趨緊密的多邊區(qū)域組織發(fā)展。除緒論外,本文將從四個部分展開論述。第一部分,本文主要分析中國與SCO成員國雙邊貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀,結(jié)果顯示:雙邊貿(mào)易中的進(jìn)出口規(guī)模都較小,但貿(mào)易增長速度較快,與俄羅斯的雙邊貿(mào)易額占據(jù)中國與上合組織成員國總貿(mào)易額的絕大部分比例;中國與上合組織成員國的商品貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)仍然是以中國進(jìn)口初級產(chǎn)品、出口資本/技術(shù)密集型和勞動密集型產(chǎn)品為主,雙邊貿(mào)易互補性較強。第二部分,本文采用Novy(2008)貿(mào)易成本測算方法對1995年-2013年中國與SCO成員國的雙邊貿(mào)易成本展開測算,輔以中德、中美和中日雙邊貿(mào)易成本的變化作為參照,從不同視角進(jìn)行對比分析,分析結(jié)果表明:中國與收入水平較高的發(fā)達(dá)國家之間貿(mào)易成本較之上合組織成員國要低,距離上的劣勢并沒有鮮明的體現(xiàn)在雙邊貿(mào)易成本上,距離正在逐步消亡;長期來看,中國與各國的雙邊貿(mào)易成本都呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢,尤其是中國入世以及上合組織成立后,平均貿(mào)易成本下降更加明顯。此外,本文通過數(shù)理推導(dǎo),構(gòu)建雙邊貿(mào)易增長分解模型,模型的實證結(jié)果表明收入增長以及貿(mào)易成本的下降促進(jìn)了雙邊貿(mào)易額增長,收入增長是雙邊貿(mào)易增長的最大推動力量。第三部分,本文從定性和定量兩方面對影響中國與SCO成員國雙邊貿(mào)易成本的因素展開分析,分析結(jié)果顯示,在地理、金融、經(jīng)濟(jì)、政治治理、組織和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)等方面的因素對雙邊貿(mào)易成本變化影響顯著,實證結(jié)果表明:加強對腐敗的治理不利于降低雙邊貿(mào)易成本,反而會增加;上合組織的成立鮮明地降低了雙邊貿(mào)易成本;雙邊貿(mào)易成本受人民幣兌美元匯率波動的影響是最大的。第四部分,綜合前文定性和定量分析的結(jié)果,本文從上合組織框架下推動人民幣區(qū)域化、自由貿(mào)易區(qū)建設(shè)和貿(mào)易投資便利化制度建設(shè)三個角度提出相應(yīng)對策。
[Abstract]:In the traditional trade theory model, the variable of trade cost is always assumed to be an exogenous variable and excluded from the basic theoretical model. With the continuous innovation of international trade theory, as the core influence factor of international trade, trade cost is paid more and more attention, and widely adopted and applied in related research fields. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO or SCO) has made great contributions to stabilizing the regional security environment promoting the investment and trade facilitation of member countries and stimulating the potential of regional economic cooperation. With the increasing degree of global specialization, it is imperative for SCO to further strengthen regional economic and trade cooperation. This paper hopes that through a systematic study of bilateral trade costs between China and SCO member countries, the relevant factors affecting bilateral trade costs can be combed to improve the efficiency of bilateral transactions, reduce bilateral trade costs, and release the potential for economic and trade cooperation. To promote the SCO towards more open, more liberal and closer ties of multilateral regional organizations. In addition to the introduction, this article will be discussed from four parts. In the first part, this paper mainly analyzes the current situation of bilateral trade between China and SCO member countries. The results show that the scale of bilateral trade is small, but the growth rate of trade is relatively fast. The bilateral trade volume with Russia accounts for the vast majority of the total trade volume between China and SCO members; the commodity trade structure between China and SCO member countries is still based on China's imports of primary products. Exports of capital / technology-intensive and labor-intensive products dominated, and bilateral trade was highly complementary. In the second part, this paper uses Novy (2008) to measure the bilateral trade cost between China and SCO member countries from 1995 to 2013, with the change of bilateral trade cost between China and Germany, China and America and China and Japan as reference. The results show that the trade cost between China and developed countries with higher income level is lower than that of SCO member countries, and the disadvantage in distance is not reflected in bilateral trade costs. In the long run, bilateral trade costs between China and other countries are on the decline, especially after China's entry into WTO and the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In addition, this paper constructs a decomposition model of bilateral trade growth through mathematical derivation. The empirical results show that income growth and the decline of trade costs promote bilateral trade growth, and income growth is the biggest driving force of bilateral trade growth. In the third part, the paper analyzes the factors that affect the bilateral trade cost between China and SCO member countries from both qualitative and quantitative aspects. The results show that, in geographical, financial, economic and political governance, Factors such as organization and infrastructure construction have a significant impact on bilateral trade costs. The empirical results show that: strengthening the governance of corruption is not conducive to reducing bilateral trade costs, but will increase; The establishment of the SCO has sharply reduced bilateral trade costs, which are most affected by the volatility of the yuan against the dollar. The fourth part, synthesizing the results of qualitative and quantitative analysis, this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures from three angles of promoting RMB regionalization, free trade area construction and trade and investment facilitation system construction under the framework of SCO.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：新疆財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F752.7;F740.45

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