回歸分析下的經營決策在澄西船廠的應用研究
發(fā)布時間:2018-05-17 18:50
本文選題:生產決策 + 船舶企業(yè)。 參考:《江蘇科技大學》2015年碩士論文
【摘要】:船舶工業(yè)具有強大的綜合性,可以通過上下游行業(yè)的聯(lián)系對國民經濟的發(fā)展產生巨大的推動作用。根本原因在于船舶工業(yè)的核心技術包含了大型結構件的加工裝配和對其他多種學科的綜合應用。船舶工業(yè)涉及到的集成技術具有很強的延展性,除了能夠涉及制造船舶和船用設備,還可以擴展到非船舶工業(yè)中去,滿足國民經濟其他方面的發(fā)展。但受歐洲債務危機的拖累,船只的需求下降,加上船舶行業(yè)產能過剩現(xiàn)象的突出,國際航運業(yè)遭受了嚴重的打擊。面對造船業(yè)利潤下降、成本上升、訂單減少的局面,高利潤的訂單已經越來越少,低利潤甚至負利潤的訂單則逐日增多,利潤的縮減導致船企不得不另尋出路,扭轉過去僅僅依靠毛利率來選擇訂單的思路,將視野投向與成本聯(lián)系更為緊密的邊際貢獻率。本文借助企業(yè)經營決策理論和變動成本法理論,以回歸分析為基礎構建了訂單定價模型,與特殊訂單的生產決策相結合,將澄西船廠作為研究實例,對訂單定價模型和特殊訂單的生產決策在澄西船廠的應用等內容進行了深入研究。通過對相關成本理論概念和SPSS回歸分析方法的介紹,對船舶制造成本進行分析,并運用SPSS軟件對成本數(shù)據(jù)和訂單定價數(shù)據(jù)進行逐步回歸分析和驗證,從而推出船舶企業(yè)的訂單定價模型。結合訂單定價模型與邊際貢獻的相關理論,對船舶企業(yè)的特殊訂單進行判定,詳盡分析出特殊訂單的生產決策模型。在此基礎上,結合澄西船廠的生產經營數(shù)據(jù),對訂單定價模型和特殊訂單生產決策模型在澄西船廠的應用進行了實例分析。借此希望可以對相關船舶企業(yè)在訂單生產決策上提供一些理論支持,減少訂單選擇的困難,改變企業(yè)的經營困境。
[Abstract]:The shipbuilding industry has a strong synthesis, which can promote the development of national economy through the connection of upstream and downstream industries. The fundamental reason is that the core technology of shipbuilding industry includes the machining and assembling of large structural parts and the comprehensive application of other disciplines. The integrated technology involved in the shipbuilding industry has a strong ductility. In addition to the shipbuilding and shipbuilding equipment, it can also be extended to the non-shipbuilding industry to meet the development of other aspects of the national economy. But the international shipping industry has been hit hard by the European debt crisis, falling demand for ships and overcapacity in the shipping industry. In the face of declining profits, rising costs and decreasing orders in the shipbuilding industry, the number of orders for high profits has become smaller and smaller, while orders for low and even negative profits are increasing day by day. As profits shrink, shipbuilding enterprises have to find another way out. This paper reverses the idea of only relying on gross profit margin to select orders, and focuses on the marginal contribution rate, which is more closely related to cost. In this paper, with the help of enterprise management decision theory and variable cost theory, based on regression analysis, an order pricing model is constructed, which is combined with the production decision of special orders. The Chengxi Shipyard is taken as an example. The application of order pricing model and production decision of special order in Chengxi Shipyard is studied. Through the introduction of related cost theory concept and SPSS regression analysis method, the ship manufacturing cost is analyzed, and the cost data and order pricing data are analyzed and verified step by SPSS software. Thus, the order pricing model of shipbuilding enterprises is put forward. Combined with the theory of order pricing model and marginal contribution, the special orders of shipbuilding enterprises are judged, and the production decision model of special orders is analyzed in detail. On this basis, combined with the production and management data of Chengxi Shipyard, the application of order pricing model and special order production decision model in Chengxi Shipyard is analyzed. It is hoped that this paper can provide some theoretical support to the shipbuilding enterprises concerned in the decision of order production, reduce the difficulty of order selection, and change the management difficulties of the enterprises.
【學位授予單位】:江蘇科技大學
【學位級別】:碩士
【學位授予年份】:2015
【分類號】:F406.7;F426.474
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