本文選題：財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī) + 潛伏期　； 參考：《寧波大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：2007年美國爆發(fā)的次貸危機(jī)引發(fā)了全球金融危機(jī)，對(duì)我國出口拉動(dòng)型經(jīng)濟(jì)造成了巨大影響，造成了大量企業(yè)倒閉。因此，對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的爆發(fā)提前進(jìn)行警示成了保證企業(yè)持續(xù)經(jīng)營(yíng)的重要管理手段。而理論界對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)形成過程中階段性特征的研究不足影響了財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型的應(yīng)用價(jià)值。 本文選取我國2010-2012年首次因財(cái)務(wù)狀況異常而被*ST的43家制造業(yè)上市公司為財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)組樣本，按照1:1原則以同期43家非ST公司作為配對(duì)樣本，采用*ST前五年的數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的階段性進(jìn)行研究。在分析過程中，首先,對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)組和財(cái)務(wù)正常組公司被*ST前五年數(shù)據(jù)采用K-S正態(tài)檢驗(yàn)、Mann-Whitney U檢驗(yàn)和T檢驗(yàn)進(jìn)行逐年分析，篩選出各年的在兩組公司間具有顯著性差異水平的指標(biāo)，然后采用因子分析、logistic回歸分析對(duì)差異指標(biāo)構(gòu)建預(yù)警模型。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：在財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)爆發(fā)前五年，兩組公司顯著性差異指標(biāo)在各年是不一樣的，隨著時(shí)間的推移，顯著性差異指標(biāo)個(gè)數(shù)呈現(xiàn)出一個(gè)逐漸增多的趨勢(shì)；并且，在構(gòu)建的預(yù)警模型中，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)不同階段的預(yù)警變量是不一樣的，同一預(yù)警變量在不同的階段模型中的系數(shù)也表現(xiàn)出很大差異。這兩方面的實(shí)證結(jié)果都說明了財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的形成過程具有階段性，不同的階段表現(xiàn)出不同的特征。顯著性檢驗(yàn)表明財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)存在三個(gè)階段：潛伏期（ST前五年）、惡化期（ST前四年和ST前三年）、實(shí)現(xiàn)期（ST前兩年和ST前一年）。在財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的潛伏期，兩組公司的顯著性差異指標(biāo)較少，，主要特點(diǎn)是財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)公司長(zhǎng)期負(fù)債水平過高，流動(dòng)性不足。而到了財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)惡化期，主要特點(diǎn)是財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)公司的營(yíng)運(yùn)能力出現(xiàn)了顯著惡化。到了財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)實(shí)現(xiàn)期，主要特點(diǎn)是財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)公司的盈利能力和成長(zhǎng)能力出現(xiàn)了顯著惡化。
[Abstract]:The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007 triggered the global financial crisis, which had a great impact on China's export-led economy and caused a large number of enterprises to close down. Therefore, warning the outbreak of financial crisis in advance has become an important management means to ensure the continuous operation of enterprises. However, the lack of theoretical research on the stage characteristics in the formation of financial crisis affects the application value of financial crisis early warning model. In this paper, 43 listed manufacturing companies whose financial position is abnormal in 2010-2012 are selected as financial crisis group samples. According to the 1:1 principle, 43 non-St companies in the same period are selected as matched samples. Using St data from the first five years to study the stages of financial crisis. In the process of analysis, firstly, the data of financial crisis group and financial normal group were analyzed year by year by K-S normal test Mann-Whitney U test and T test. The indexes with significant differences in the two groups of companies were screened out in each year, and then the logistic regression analysis was used to construct the early warning model of the difference indexes. The study found that: five years before the outbreak of financial crisis, the two groups of significant differences in the indicators are different in each year, with the passage of time, the number of significant differences showed a trend of increasing; and, In the early-warning model, we find that the early-warning variables are different in different stages, and the coefficients of the same early-warning variables are also very different in different stage models. The two empirical results show that the formation process of financial crisis has stages and different stages show different characteristics. The significant test shows that there are three stages of financial crisis: the incubation period is five years before St, the deterioration period is four years before St and three years before St, and the period of realization is two years before St and one year before St. In the incubation period of financial crisis, there are few significant differences between the two groups, the main characteristic is that the long-term debt level of the financial crisis company is too high, and the liquidity is insufficient. The main characteristic of the financial crisis is that the operating ability of the financial crisis company has deteriorated significantly. In the period of financial crisis, the main characteristic is that the profitability and growth ability of financial crisis companies have deteriorated significantly.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧波大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F406.7;F425

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