本文關(guān)鍵詞：建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的資金風(fēng)險及對項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度計(jì)劃的影響分析　出處：《青島大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：在當(dāng)前動蕩的國內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境中,建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的資金風(fēng)險愈發(fā)突出,并呈現(xiàn)更多的動態(tài)性和不確定性。同時,資金風(fēng)險的發(fā)生也很大程度上影響著項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度。因此,對于建設(shè)項(xiàng)目,資金風(fēng)險的準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測和評估對于整個項(xiàng)目的按進(jìn)度計(jì)劃完成至關(guān)重要。本文的研究目的是針對建設(shè)項(xiàng)目資金風(fēng)險影響因素進(jìn)行定量分析,并估算資金風(fēng)險對項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度計(jì)劃的影響程度。其主要研究工作體現(xiàn)在以下三個方面： 通過文獻(xiàn)研究和問卷調(diào)查相結(jié)合的方法,明確建設(shè)項(xiàng)目資金風(fēng)險影響因素的來源,得出資金風(fēng)險的7種主要影響因素,包括：工程進(jìn)度款支付不及時、工程進(jìn)度款支付比例較小、工程尾款支付不及時、國家宏觀調(diào)控政策的出臺、不可抗力的自然災(zāi)害、因工程質(zhì)量達(dá)不到要求導(dǎo)致返工、施工單位在投標(biāo)中低價承包工程。 通過理論建模方法,構(gòu)建建設(shè)項(xiàng)目資金和進(jìn)度貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò),估算資金風(fēng)險發(fā)生的概率以及資金風(fēng)險對項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度的影響程度。結(jié)果表明,在不采取風(fēng)險規(guī)避等措施的情況下,資金風(fēng)險發(fā)生的概率是較大的；在資金風(fēng)險的影響下,建設(shè)項(xiàng)目按計(jì)劃工期完工的概率較低,這也是目前很多建設(shè)項(xiàng)目不能期完成的重要原因。 通過實(shí)例研究方法,使用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)應(yīng)用軟件—-Hugin Lite軟件,應(yīng)用江蘇省某機(jī)場配餐樓建設(shè)為案例,說明貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)建模方法在建設(shè)項(xiàng)目資金和進(jìn)度風(fēng)險管理中實(shí)際應(yīng)用過程,驗(yàn)證貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)在預(yù)測資金風(fēng)險發(fā)生概率與解決項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度不確定性上的有效性。 本文的研究成果對資金和進(jìn)度風(fēng)險的理論研究提供了全新的思路,并且對于有效規(guī)避資金風(fēng)險以及合理控制資金風(fēng)險對進(jìn)度計(jì)劃的影響都具有實(shí)際價值。同時,貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)建模方法的引進(jìn),也為不確定因素越來越多的建設(shè)項(xiàng)目資金和進(jìn)度風(fēng)險管理提供一種高效的方法。
[Abstract]:In the current volatile economic environment at home and abroad, the capital construction project risk is more and more prominent, and has more dynamic and uncertainty. At the same time, the occurrence of financial risk also has great influence on the progress of the project. Therefore, for the construction project, risk measurement and accurate pre assessment for the entire project on schedule finish is very important. The purpose of this study is to quantitatively analyze the factors of construction project finance risk influence, and estimate the influence degree of financial risk on the project schedule. The main research work embodied in the following three aspects:
Methods through literature study and questionnaire investigation, clear construction factors affect the project risk sources of funds, including 7 main factors, the financial risk: the progress of the payment is not timely, the progress of the payment proportion of Engineering balance payment is not timely, the national macro-control policies, the force majeure natural disasters, due to the quality of the project is not up to the requirements lead to rework, the construction units in the tender price contract project.
Through theoretical modeling method, the construction project funds and the progress of the Bayesian network, estimates the probability of occurrence of financial risk and financial risk impact on the progress of the project. The results show that without taking risk avoidance measures, the probability of capital risk is larger; impact on capital risk, the probability of the construction project according to the the completion of the planned construction period is relatively low, which is also an important reason for many construction projects can not be completed.
Through the case study method, using Bayesian network application software -Hugin Lite software, application of the airport catering building in Jiangsu province for example, illustrate the Bayesian network modeling method in the practical application process of risk management of construction project funds and the progress in validation of Bayesian network in forecasting the capital risk probability and effectiveness of solving the uncertainty on the project schedule.
Provides a new idea to theoretical research funding and progress risk research results of this paper, and has practical value for the effective avoid financial risks and risk control of funds on schedule reasonable. At the same time, the introduction of Bayesian network modeling method, but also for the uncertainty of capital construction projects and project schedule risk management factors provide more and more a high efficient method.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F562.3;F560.68

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