【摘要】：在發(fā)展中國(guó)家的農(nóng)村地區(qū),非正式的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)網(wǎng)絡(luò)是貧困農(nóng)戶(hù)抵御風(fēng)險(xiǎn)沖擊的重要方式。然而,一直以來(lái),關(guān)于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的絕大多數(shù)研究都是集中于實(shí)證分析已形成的既定網(wǎng)絡(luò),而忽視網(wǎng)絡(luò)的形成過(guò)程本身及其內(nèi)在機(jī)制,無(wú)法對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的無(wú)效性問(wèn)題做出解釋。本文利用基于主體的計(jì)算經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)建模方法對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)網(wǎng)絡(luò)形成過(guò)程進(jìn)行仿真,根據(jù)網(wǎng)絡(luò)外部性特征,從成本不可轉(zhuǎn)移的基準(zhǔn)模型,逐漸擴(kuò)展到成本在關(guān)系主體雙方之間分擔(dān)、在組件內(nèi)所有主體分擔(dān),研究不同條件下風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的完備性和效率。我們的仿真研究發(fā)現(xiàn),隨著成本可轉(zhuǎn)移性程度的提高,即關(guān)系網(wǎng)絡(luò)的外部性逐漸減弱,所形成的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)關(guān)系的數(shù)量越來(lái)越多,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)網(wǎng)絡(luò)越來(lái)越趨于完備,所形成的穩(wěn)定網(wǎng)絡(luò)越來(lái)越有效率。本文不僅較好地解釋現(xiàn)有的大量實(shí)證發(fā)現(xiàn),而且,還以仿真方式嚴(yán)格地證明了Bramoullé和Kranton(2007)的猜想:通過(guò)主體協(xié)調(diào)分擔(dān)成本,可以消除網(wǎng)絡(luò)外部性,從而形成有效的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)網(wǎng)絡(luò)。
[Abstract]:In rural areas of developing countries, informal risk-sharing networks are an important way for poor farmers to withstand risk shocks. However, the vast majority of researches on risk-sharing networks have focused on the established networks that have been formed by empirical analysis, while ignoring the formation process of the network and its internal mechanism, it is impossible to explain the ineffectiveness of the network. This paper simulates the formation process of risk-sharing network by means of agent-based computational economics modeling method. According to the characteristics of network externality, it extends from the benchmark model of non-transferable cost to the cost sharing between the two parties. In this paper, the completeness and efficiency of risk-sharing network under different conditions are studied. Our simulation results show that with the improvement of the degree of cost transferability, that is, the externality of relational networks is gradually weakened, the number of risk sharing relationships is becoming more and more, and the risk sharing network is becoming more and more complete. The stable network is becoming more and more efficient. This paper not only explains a large number of existing empirical findings, but also proves the conjecture of Bramoull 茅 and Kranton (2007) strictly by means of simulation: the network externality can be eliminated by means of agent coordination and cost sharing. In order to form an effective risk sharing network.
【作者單位】： 武漢大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展研究中心;武漢大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)重點(diǎn)研究基地重大課題“發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的微觀基礎(chǔ)研究”(07JJD790141) 國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“農(nóng)村扶貧政策績(jī)效評(píng)價(jià)及其動(dòng)態(tài)瞄準(zhǔn)機(jī)制設(shè)計(jì)”(70873088) 武漢大學(xué)自主科研項(xiàng)目“農(nóng)村貧困、親貧式制度創(chuàng)新與和諧發(fā)展”的階段性成果之一
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F0;F224

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 梁娟;;計(jì)算經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的產(chǎn)業(yè)集群技術(shù)創(chuàng)新機(jī)理[J];江南大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2008年03期

2 韓小亮,鄧祖新;計(jì)算經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)與交通行為研究[J];財(cái)經(jīng)研究;2004年07期

3 王錚;劉濤;朱艷鑫;吳靜;楊念;;國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)安全政策模擬器的開(kāi)發(fā)問(wèn)題[J];中國(guó)科學(xué)院院刊;2007年01期

4 陳平;梅琳;鮮于波;;外匯市場(chǎng)復(fù)雜性與人工外匯市場(chǎng)研究[J];國(guó)際金融研究;2007年11期

5 鮮于波;梅琳;;主體異質(zhì)性、復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)與網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng)下的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)——基于計(jì)算經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究[J];系統(tǒng)管理學(xué)報(bào);2008年02期

6 詹文杰;邵原;;連續(xù)競(jìng)價(jià)市場(chǎng)的交易策略研究綜述[J];管理學(xué)報(bào);2008年06期

7 鮮于波;梅琳;;間接網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng)下的產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散——基于復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)和計(jì)算經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究[J];管理科學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2009年01期

8 王野平;荊朝霞;陳皓勇;顏漢榮;張堯;;基于代理的電力市場(chǎng)仿真的實(shí)驗(yàn)設(shè)計(jì)方法探討[J];電力系統(tǒng)自動(dòng)化;2009年17期

9 陳保國(guó);田大鋼;;基于Agent股票市場(chǎng)仿真系統(tǒng)中個(gè)體行為的研究[J];現(xiàn)代商業(yè);2009年36期

10 鮮于波;梅琳;;復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)與標(biāo)準(zhǔn)擴(kuò)散中的集聚——基于主體的計(jì)算經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究[J];復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)與復(fù)雜性科學(xué);2008年01期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 孫曉明;量子信息論與計(jì)算經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中若干算法與復(fù)雜性問(wèn)題研究[D];清華大學(xué);2005年

，

本文編號(hào)：2307726